Complete spew?

This is a hand from my recent, ill-fated, shot at 200nl. On the turn i was sure vill would bet if I checked and I wouldn't be able to call. Is this too spewy? What about checking the flop? I feel like that gives too many small-mid pairs license to steal.

Villian is UTG, 27/22/2 over about 100 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($478)
Button ($231.30)
Hero ($198)
BB ($224.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
UTG raises to $8, 1 fold, Hero raises to $28, 1 fold, UTG calls $20.

Flop: ($58) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $38, UTG calls $38.

Turn: ($134) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $132 (All-In)

This looks awfully standard. c/f the flop sometimes but I don't mind this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

This looks awfully standard. c/f the flop sometimes but I don't mind this.

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Ok, but without picking up the flush draw it would be c/f on the turn (most of the time)...right?

yeah without picking up the flush draw he has to fold way too much for that to be profitable and theres not that many hands hes calling the flop with that are folding now.

Looks good to me.

Ok, thanks for the input. I thought this was horrible when I played it, but that was because he had a set and I sucked out. However, I was looking at it and the math looks ok. Here's what I came up with:

My estimation of villians flop calling range: JJ+, 77
My equity on the turn against that range: 25%.
x=% of time he folds
What I win when he folds + what i win when he calls and I win - what I lose when he calls and I lose = 0
134x+.25(266)(1-x)-.75(132)(1-x)=0
x=0.195

Does that look right?
So if villain will fold 20% or more of the time, this is a profitable play. If his range is wider, it become more profitable.