50 nl, Time for a hero call amirite?

Villain is running 56/31/14 over 50 hands and folding to cbets 0%. How often are they on a complete bluff on the river?

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($38.10)
UTG+1 ($38.45)
CO ($77.90)
Hero ($59.05)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($46.85)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is BTN :6h: :7h:
UTG raises to $1.5, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.5, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: :2c: :6d: :td: ($4.75, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $3, Hero raises to $9, BB folds, UTG calls $6

Turn: :ts: ($22.75, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: :3h: ($22.75, 2 players)
UTG goes all-in $27.6, Hero calls $27.6

[Results Hidden]

And you put him on what on the flop?

his cbet stat is more important here then his fold to cbet... I think I can call here if we have history or you've seen him shove his bluffs before. Also I bet turn, but dont know if that's the right move.

I like it.

I'd say the best way to judge your hero calls is to make sure he always has nuts or air when your calling. If he showed up with trips or a FH or air you made a good call.

If he showed up w 77 then your in trouble.

turn check is good. c/f diamond rivers.

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

And you put him on what on the flop?

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10 sometimes, air a lot of the time. I think he shoves a flush draw on the flop and I'm not really putting him that. I think that a flush draw is a huge part of my range here though which means he can bluff this river at will.

as played, when he shoves that river i check his pop up stats to see if he C/R's turn alot or ever, and glance at his agg freq on river.

i think im calling here against this guy like 99% of the time.

your turn check tells him you dont have the 10, so he thinks he can bluff you off anything.
i think we're ahead atleast 75% of the time. prolly more.

AF 14? hell id call with AK

With his high aggression factor I think you can just call down safely. You showed a lot of strength by raising this flop and now on the river I'd say he has an overpair or 10 80% of the time.

Have I missed something dean. . . . how can we call it down "safe" id we are beat 80% of the time??

This isnt me trying to get at you by the way, I really cant work it out. Cheers.

why did u raise the flop?

this is rly close imo

this maniacal agg freak is shoving to his re-raise on the flop with any overpair or strong 10.

hes bluffing here far more than shoving a stronger hand for value IMO

he's either bluffing or shoving river to make up for missed value on the turn.
atleast thats how i think vill would be thinking if he had the 10.

theres no way he has an overpair, he would have 3bet shoved the flop almost forsure.

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Originally Posted by sil693

Have I missed something dean. . . . how can we call it down "safe" id we are beat 80% of the time??

This isnt me trying to get at you by the way, I really cant work it out. Cheers.

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We raised the flop to "see where we were at" and he called. This narrows his range down to overpairs and a 10 most of the time. Maybe even 88-99. If we just call down we wouldn't have that information but we could pick off his bluffs.

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

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Originally Posted by sil693

Have I missed something dean. . . . how can we call it down "safe" id we are beat 80% of the time??

This isnt me trying to get at you by the way, I really cant work it out. Cheers.

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We raised the flop to "see where we were at" and he called. This narrows his range down to overpairs and a 10 most of the time. Maybe even 88-99. If we just call down we wouldn't have that information but we could pick off his bluffs.

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you dont think he would have 3bet shoved the flop with an overpair or 10?
this guy is never checking that turn either with a 10 or OP

TBH the only hand im scared of here is 33 or a stronger 6.

did vill start with a full stack at the table? this may weigh on my decision as SS's like to wait for the nutx to push, whereas if he was full stacked and hasnt re-loaded, its just all that much more suggesting he's a clown capable of this line with 44

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

We raised the flop to "see where we were at"

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i hope this isnt why

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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

We raised the flop to "see where we were at"

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i hope this isnt why

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lots of reasons to raise this flop.
a - will slow down most maniacs on the turn/river when we want to see a showdown
b - F/E
C - info

i use "A" alot at this level against this type of villain. it beats calling 3 streets of bluffs to see a showdown.

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

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Originally Posted by sil693

Have I missed something dean. . . . how can we call it down "safe" id we are beat 80% of the time??

This isnt me trying to get at you by the way, I really cant work it out. Cheers.

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We raised the flop to "see where we were at" and he called. This narrows his range down to overpairs and a 10 most of the time. Maybe even 88-99. If we just call down we wouldn't have that information but we could pick off his bluffs.

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I don't think he's capable of valuebetting 88-99 or an overpair. I think he has trips or better or a bluff. He's reraising a T on this flop imo. As played, I call.

But I'd just call down before I raised flop.

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Originally Posted by langaan

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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

We raised the flop to "see where we were at"

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i hope this isnt why

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lots of reasons to raise this flop.
a - will slow down most maniacs on the turn/river when we want to see a showdown
b - F/E
C - info

i use "A" alot at this level against this type of villain. it beats calling 3 streets of bluffs to see a showdown.

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A - I don't think we slow him down when he has top pair
B - What F/E do we have? We have showdown value anyways
C - Explain how "info" is good because to me, "info" means betting when we called by better and when we fold out worse.

This guy has a huge range on this board, I just call down.

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A - I don't think we slow him down when he has top pair

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no, but he'll slow down his bluffs. and im not saying this is the best option, but i have used it when i think I am ahead of a maniac capable of complete bluffs on all streets.

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B - What F/E do we have? We have showdown value anyways

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there are maniacs out there who fold to agression almsot always. again, id only do this based on reads

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C - Explain how "info" is good because to me, "info" means betting when we called by better and when we fold out worse.

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its simple really, against this guy, if he doesnt shove he doesnt have an OP or a 10

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This guy has a huge range on this board, I just call down.

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you want to call down all streets with mid pair crap kicker instead of making a play early?

if his range is as wide as described and hes gonna keep bluffing then yeah ill call him.

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Originally Posted by langaan

a - will slow down most maniacs on the turn/river when we want to see a showdown

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interesting, I'm not sure if a lot of maniacs really fire 3 barrels that often, imo 2 calls is usually enough to stop them....but I find it an interesting thought nevertheless.

The flop raise was because I thought I had the best hand but almost atc he had would have 6 outs against me and I would have liked for him to fold it there. After a safe turn and river I don't see how I can fold here.

This guy doesn't need a reason to float me oop. 50nl donks on stars think it's there job or something.

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Originally Posted by langaan

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A - I don't think we slow him down when he has top pair

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no, but he'll slow down his bluffs. and im not saying this is the best option, but i have used it when i think I am ahead of a maniac capable of complete bluffs on all streets.

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B - What F/E do we have? We have showdown value anyways

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there are maniacs out there who fold to agression almsot always. again, id only do this based on reads

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C - Explain how "info" is good because to me, "info" means betting when we called by better and when we fold out worse.

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its simple really, against this guy, if he doesnt shove he doesnt have an OP or a 10

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This guy has a huge range on this board, I just call down.

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you want to call down all streets with mid pair crap kicker instead of making a play early?

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A. Yeah, if we stay at his table long enough he may slow down his bluffs but I don't think I'd choose this hand to do it with.

B. What part of his range that we beat does he fold? No question he has a high folding % but what kind of fold equity do we have?

C. I still don't like that way of thinking at all, our equity is better when he has a wide range that includes a bunch of bluffs than when we reraise and he only continues with a piece. So yeah I want to call down when I think we have the most equity.

D. I'm stubborn

Calling preflop with low suited connectors against someone opening this wide a range is probably a mistake though.

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no, but he'll slow down his bluffs. and im not saying this is the best option, but i have used it when i think I am ahead of a maniac capable of complete bluffs on all streets.

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This is exactly why I am just calling down.

I'm with kmind, be interesting to see what the balla crew say

i think his range is Tx and missed gutters and flushdraws as well as terribly played whiffed AQ-type shit.

and since you posted it I'm pretty sure you called and he had Tx

shitty

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Originally Posted by Genitruc

and since you posted it I'm pretty sure you called and he had Tx

shitty

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results

http://weaktight.com/196866

i play the same except for the flop raise.

cool hand pankfish, fun results

will did you have 2's full in the hand vs borntodog that was in the vid 2day?

Kc completed the flush on paired board and you potted OOP

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Originally Posted by kmind

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Originally Posted by langaan

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A - I don't think we slow him down when he has top pair

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no, but he'll slow down his bluffs. and im not saying this is the best option, but i have used it when i think I am ahead of a maniac capable of complete bluffs on all streets.

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B - What F/E do we have? We have showdown value anyways

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there are maniacs out there who fold to agression almsot always. again, id only do this based on reads

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C - Explain how "info" is good because to me, "info" means betting when we called by better and when we fold out worse.

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its simple really, against this guy, if he doesnt shove he doesnt have an OP or a 10

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This guy has a huge range on this board, I just call down.

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you want to call down all streets with mid pair crap kicker instead of making a play early?

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A. Yeah, if we stay at his table long enough he may slow down his bluffs but I don't think I'd choose this hand to do it with.

B. What part of his range that we beat does he fold? No question he has a high folding % but what kind of fold equity do we have?

C. I still don't like that way of thinking at all, our equity is better when he has a wide range that includes a bunch of bluffs than when we reraise and he only continues with a piece. So yeah I want to call down when I think we have the most equity.

D. I'm stubborn

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well i cant say you aren't making sence, or that i dont agree with you,
but i can say ive used that type of play several times and its worked for me.

i guess i just hate calling down maniacs in this spot that could very easily spike a higher pair on the turn/river, and if we are just calling down from the flop we would never have a clue.

we have sd value here, but vills range is much more likely to improve imo, and i prefer to have some info early.

so, if we didnt re-raise flop, and vill bet that turn and shoved river, are you still calling down?

Outcome = gold