3betting AK pf and post flop implications
An interesting thread started here: Playing AK The discussion turned to 3betting with AK preflop. I made the case for 3betting AK 95% or more of the time.
The discussion parallels some concepts I've figured out and had fun lately with in my "Hand Reading for Noobs" series of polls I've posted here. Basically, 3betting preflop is all about the times when you do it and the original raiser flat calls. Postflop, this situation is EXTREMELY easy to play, even for beginner's and noobies. You have position against an very narrow range of holdings.
I will walk through how simple AK is to play when you 3bet and then let you all fire back.
Preflop, EP open raises 3.5xBB, hero 3bets from MP 10xBB, and the following things can happen (assuming at least 60bb stacks):
1. Another villain(s) calls or rr's. This sucks, and I'm pretty much done putting in chips.
2. All fold. Wheeeee!! I don't have a made hand, and small pp's are folding out in a decent ratio with dominated hands that fold. I'm fine taking down a pot preflop, especially when it's blinds plus an open raise (usually 5bb+). If this keeps happening, I'll be 3betting lighter and lighter until it stops.
3. All fold back to OR, who calls. Wheeee!! He's on a anorexic range and has to act first. And I've got outs. His range? Pretty much AJ+, Axs and QQ-88. Excellent equity, even when I miss the flop. Hands I have dominated and coin flips. Against QQ on a J52 rainbow flop, I still have 27% equity. VERY unlikely that he has AA or KK. Very profitable.
4. All fold back to OR, who 4bets (maybe a shove). Oops. Pretty much gotta fold without a read. Bye bye 10bb, reload stack, pray for AK next hand too.
My wild guess about how often each scenario happens at 25nl and below on UB is...
1 & 4 combined occur about 25% of the time.
2 happens probably 40% of the time, or more.
3 happens maybe 30 - 35% of the time.
The bad cases (1 & 4) cost us about 10bb's, while #2 earns us about 5bb's, so they're basically a break-even proposition. Don't know if my guesses on frequencies are anywhere near accurate (your thoughts?). But #3 is seriously profitable, if you just think about his narrow range and how he has to play on the flop. So we're 3betting with AK to get called by OR, and making a huge +EV on these hands while breaking even elsewhere.
I have more to say, but I would be interested on what FTR thinks before I write much more.
