I flop TPTK in a 3 bet pot and I want to fold

Villain is 27/20/5 and seems pretty good. The last couple of hands we have battled it out, with me taking down a flop with a lead, me 3 betting his open raise and taking it down. Because of this I think he is slightly more likely to play back at me here.


Hand #6567265462 begins at 2008/05/25
Dealing down cards
Dealt to hero[Ah Kc]
kenda1000 posts the small blind of $0.50
shipitoverhere2 posts the big blind of $1
agn74 raises to $3.50.
StarkIndustries folds.
hero raises to $15.
kenda1000 folds.
shipitoverhere2 folds.
agn74 calls $11.50.
Dealing Flop [9d Ac Jd]
agn74 checks.
hero bets $20.
agn74 raises to $250.10, and is all-in. ($120 for hero to call)


His call of me 3 bet was instant so it leads me to heavily discount AK. I can't see him turning QQ or KK into a bluff like this. Maybe a diamond draw like Adxd but I almost feel like he would have thought about calling or folding preflop with a hand like that. I want to squarely put him on JJ here. Is that bad? *take into account we are 155bb deep*

I think villain has a decent amount of FD's in his range, QT, AQ. Also, I'm not sure poeple usually 'overbet' a hand as strong as a set in a 3bet pot. I call.

^Yeah, looks like a combo draw, or a big steam. It's a call from me.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by minSim

I think villain has a decent amount of FD's in his range, QT, AQ. Also, I'm not sure poeple usually 'overbet' a hand as strong as a set in a 3bet pot. I call.

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A read would certainly help. The problem with the 3bet flat call is that 99 - QQ are solidly in his range, along with maybe AJ+ and ATs+. This is about the worst flop possible for Hero since it hits the sweet spot of villain's range so hard.

I agree that the betting pattern strongly suggests combo/big draw. So I'm probably calling the shove and throwing up when I pay off a fast-played set.

Board: 9d Ac Jd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.365% 15.27% 12.09% 3477 2754.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 72.635% 60.54% 12.09% 13785 2754.00 { AA, JJ, 99, AJs+, KdQd, 8d7d, AKo, AJo }

call.

that range is wrong. you are saying that he always just calls the 3bet with AA and then check bombs the flop? its very unlikely he does that with any sets.
also put AQ in there.
this is going to be a draw so much of the time.

I don't really agree with your range here SantaCruz. I think we have to weight away from sets because they don't really get played this way. If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck, and this looks and quacks like a big draw (metaphor hell). I think he does have some sets/2pairs in his range *some* of the time, whereas he has big draws in his range all of the time. Also, eh, I guess he can have AA, but I think we have to weight away from that as well, so given that we're making sets less likely, and aces less likely, a set of aces is really unlikely. I think his range looks like this (I'm leaving out some combos to weight away. Dunno if there's a better way of doing this):

Board: 9d Jd Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.963% 63.58% 02.39% 9441 354.50 { AhAs, JcJs, JhJs, 9c9h, 9h9s, AdKd, AdQd, AsJs, AdTd, A9s, Ad8d, Ad7d, KdQd, KdTd, QdTd, 8d7d }
Hand 1: 34.037% 31.65% 02.39% 4700 354.50 { AhKc }


He needs to be stone-bluffing hardly ever for us to break even. Remember, we've been pounding on him a little, so he may be frustrated (and let's be honest, this does looks like a big fat bluff, if it's not a combo draw).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

call.

that range is wrong. you are saying that he always just calls the 3bet with AA and then check bombs the flop? its very unlikely he does that with any sets.
also put AQ in there.
this is going to be a draw so much of the time.

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Yeah, I'm being diplomatic with my range above, I think he has a set far less than I made out, so he probably doesn't even ever need to be bluffing for us to break even.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

call.

that range is wrong. you are saying that he always just calls the 3bet with AA and then check bombs the flop? its very unlikely he does that with any sets.
also put AQ in there.
this is going to be a draw so much of the time.

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The thing about this check/bomb thing is that if he makes a normal raise of 3x of my 20 dollar cbet I only have 60 behind in a very large pot effectively commiting me and him. Shoving and raising are effectively the same thing because the money is going in either way.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz

The thing about this check/bomb thing is that if he makes a normal raise of 3x of my 20 dollar cbet I only have 60 behind in a very large pot effectively commiting me and him. Shoving and raising are effectively the same thing because the money is going in either way.

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That's true. So why does he choose one over the other? One gives him more fold equity - he wants you to fold here. I.e combo draw/bluff.

AA 4 bets preflop almost every time because when we 3 bet his UTG raise, because he have a very strong, tight range, so AA is very unlikely, and even more unlikely is KK.

also, bet the flop harder. 2/3 pot on this board is whack.

Snapcall

I like your flop betsizing here for a bet/call as it gives him an illusion of fold equity so hes more prone to make a big mistake.

Timing tells would help but I snap call this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by tarath

Snapcall

I like your flop betsizing here for a bet/call as it gives him an illusion of fold equity so hes more prone to make a big mistake.

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yeah i guess he is aggro enough for this to work.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by UG

Timing tells would help but I snap call this.

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I did give timing tells. He insta insta snap called preflop which strongly leads me to believe he doesn't have AK, and weights pocket pairs to be more likely in my mind. He waited about 3-5 seconds before shoving. I think this is a lot closer than a lot of people on this forum think. For what its worth I talked to ISF about the hand and he said fold. Personally as you all know I think its a fold. He has to be bluffing a lot here for this to work because thats what i beat. If I am beat I rarely have equity in the pot. If I am ahead my opponenet has a lot of equity.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by UG

Timing tells would help but I snap call this.

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I did give timing tells. He insta insta snap called preflop which strongly leads me to believe he doesn't have AK, and weights pocket pairs to be more likely in my mind. He waited about 3-5 seconds before shoving. I think this is a lot closer than a lot of people on this forum think. For what its worth I talked to ISF about the hand and he said fold. Personally as you all know I think its a fold. He has to be bluffing a lot here for this to work because thats what i beat. If I am beat I rarely have equity in the pot. If I am ahead my opponenet has a lot of equity.

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Gah, sorry for not reading enough of your original post.

It's so much closer now but I still fold because you're just behind so often that it's pointless to throw money away. Like I said, you hate it when you fold a hand like this, but in the long run it's probably better. It just sucks that you never really ever feel good about it because you'll never know if you were beat or not for sure, even though you "know" you were probably beat most of the time...

id beat him in

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

id beat him in

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and how do we do that? by grossly over-shoving the flop?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

id beat him in

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and how do we do that? by grossly over-shoving the flop?

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I think he's saying he'd call Phil Hellmuth style.