100NL, is this a brilliant bluff vs semi-loose villain?

villain is 18.6/4.6/2.6 over 50 hands. After this guy donked lead weak, i figured that Weak K, AT,JJ-QQ, combo draws or AA all fit his range here. So I thought shoving on the river is the only way to win this pot, too risky and reckless?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($94.85)
SB ($88.55)
BB ($91.15)
UTG ($102.30)
UTG+1 ($161)
MP1 ($61.95)
MP2 ($13.80)
CO ($101.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif.
5 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8.50) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB calls $6.

Turn: ($20.50) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB bets $9, Hero raises to $27, BB calls $18.

River: ($74.50) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $57.85 (All-In)

Your wording is a little funny when you describe the only way to win this pot. You don't need to win this pot. That said, after the turn (which I kinda like, tho a lot of guys will hate it), we have to push the river. This is a pretty standard representation of a set or KT on the flop turning into a boat or even AK. If your opponent even gives a token effort to read your hand he has to fold a bit portion of his range.

well i kind of like it as ur representing extreme strength and in theory he should fold alot of his range. However ive given up making plays like this as though u read the guy for the exact few hands he has i.e. kj,kq etc he rarely folds as he sees trips and he likey alot. i very much doubt he has jj or qq here as hed 3 bet pre, possible aa though id expect him to raise flop and possible certain big draws like qj spades. so overall once uve made the descision to commit yourself to a bluff on the turn i like your line as it looks like your making the sort of bet you make when you have the nuts i.e boat and ak. But before you made the move did you ask yourself whether this was the kind of guy who thinks beyond the first level and is capable of folding a strong hand, specifically now the river often makes him trips. If he did call, i offer u consolation in the fact if id been the villain and had kq,kj in this hand i woulda folded a long time ago.

nice to hear your thought. Yeah, lots of ppl will fold sorta weak trips in this situation, i guess. How can i simply check behind on this river after showing so much strength in early streets. :cool: Probably, i was so lucky to spike another king. Otherwise, i'd probably give up in the end.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101

well i kind of like it as ur representing extreme strength and in theory he should fold alot of his range. However ive given up making plays like this as though u read the guy for the exact few hands he has i.e. kj,kq etc he rarely folds as he sees trips and he likey alot. i very much doubt he has jj or qq here as hed 3 bet pre, possible aa though id expect him to raise flop and possible certain big draws like qj spades. so overall once uve made the descision to commit yourself to a bluff on the turn i like your line as it looks like your making the sort of bet you make when you have the nuts i.e boat and ak. But before you made the move did you ask yourself whether this was the kind of guy who thinks beyond the first level and is capable of folding a strong hand, specifically now the river often makes him trips. If he did call, i offer u consolation in the fact if id been the villain and had kq,kj in this hand i woulda folded a long time ago.

---

yeah once uve made the turn raise id also be going all the way with my bluff once most rivers hit, though they then show me 44 once they eventually call and i feel like a bit of a dick lol. I dont know why but i find failed big bluffs to tilt me 100x more than bad beats.

I generally dont think trying to bluff people off trips is profitable at Nl200.

I think you fold some draws (mostly str8 draws with spades) but i would expect him to call with all his Kings. Also on the turn your raising 18 into 38 on a super drawy board which makes it hard to rep anything but a FH on the river.