What do you think - call this?

Villain was pretty new to the table but was giving me a lot of trouble. She bought in shortish with just 60 BBs. Very first hand after she posted, I raised and then she donked into me on a coordinated flop, then double-barrel pushed the turn (I folded a weak top pair). A few hands later she raised and I called with AJo in position - she checked a queen-high flop, potted a jack on the turn (I called) and then potted the river again, which I also called. Turned out she had KQ of spades and had slowplayed top pair on the flop, and backdoored a flush to boot. So I reloaded and muttered. After that she played a few suspicious hands with others that didn't go to showdown, and a couple hands with me that I won small pots where I'm pretty sure she felt I sucked out on her (and honestly, one of them I did - a float turned into a gutshot turned into a straight, you know how it goes sometimes). Then this happened.

Notes on preflop through turn: weak flop raise was strictly to get big blind out of the way. I wanted to play some pots with the villain and was not especially trying to chase her out. Flop c-bet is totally standard for me & I figured I was ahead. Turn bet was purposely on the weak side - I was trying for a combined blocking/information/double barrel bet and was really curious how she would respond.

There were no meaningful timing tells except it took her several seconds to bet the river. Villain's stats over a pretty small sample were about 40/8/7.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($28.65)
Hero ($59.35)
BB ($55.25)
UTG ($60.90)
MP ($58.85)

Preflop: Hero is SB with :As: :Qh:.
2 folds, Button calls $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Button calls $1.

Flop: ($3.75) :2s:, :5d:, :4h: (2 players)
Hero bets $2.5, Button calls $2.50.

Turn: ($8.75) :8d: (2 players)
Hero bets $5, Button calls $5.

River: ($18.75) :2c: (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $15, Hero calls $15.

Final Pot: $48.75

I'd make it 5bb pre to iso and just give up after the flop bet. The turn isn't good to double and if villain is calling the flop i doubt he folds this turn. Playing a big pot against a station with weak holdings isn't ideal.

Raise more pre and c/f turn. River could be good but it's super thin. Against a loose/bad player like this I play pretty straightforwardly post-flop.

$2.50 pre, as played c/f turn

Why is villain always female when you post?

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Originally Posted by Muzzard

$2.50 pre, as played c/f turn

Why is villain always female when you post?

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I could have sworn I answered this loaded question before, but it's because Full Tilt has female avatars, and this player was using one. Obviously the person may not be literally female, but it may say something that they choose to represent themselves as such.

About the preflop - am I raising more just to iso, for value, or what is the goal? BB was a nit and I knew wouldn't call without a decent hand. If he'd been looser I would have bumped it to at least 2.00. But I like to play small ball with weird fish and get into lots of hands with them - I wasn't too interested in just taking down the dead money. I figured BB would fold and button would call, which is what happened. Any larger raise I think is just to get a bigger pot going/for value, yes?

About the turn - I didn't know for sure but my gut was telling me that this player liked to hang around in other people's raised pots and either draw out or bluff on the end. I get that vibe from people sometimes from their bet sizing and when they choose to bet - I think it was mainly because she donked into me twice on my first raised hand and then didn't bet her own after she flopped top pair. That's hardly a rock solid read, of course, but it makes me think that giving up any time I miss the board and she has position on me is throwing a lot of value away. Am I overthinking it? Certainly there are better spots to get her money, I know that much.

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Originally Posted by zook

Against a loose/bad player like this I play pretty straightforwardly post-flop.

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That's my general rule too unless they are particularly aggressive or erratic (e.g. calling a couple streets and then betting big, min-betting a couple times and then betting big, donk betting a lot, things like that) - then I start looking for thinner calls if it seems warranted. I'm not a "hero call" player for the most part, it usually doesn't seem worth it at my current stakes.

I think its best not to try and out play a bad player, specially oop. As everyone else said..i'd check fold turn. Wait till you have postition on this chick and value bet your decent pairs until shes broke.

yeh.. this:

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Am I overthinking it? Certainly there are better spots to get her money, I know that much.

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Buttt.. as played..i would really want to call this....but i'd fold. Im interested to see what she had.

Meh I think it's slightly bad

pre I'd make it 4x even though she's a half stack

sometimes you'll own her soul here vs like A6 that floated the flop then picked up a dbl gutter

but I think the described player can prob have some strange hands, like TT or JJ that she's betting 100% for value on the riv here. I'd guess it's something like 65% value-bet and 35% total bluff with a worse A hi, 3x or 6x. So I think you lose a bit of money calling.

Although I think you got her this time.

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Originally Posted by Genitruc

Meh I think it's slightly bad

pre I'd make it 4x even though she's a half stack

sometimes you'll own her soul here vs like A6 that floated the flop then picked up a dbl gutter

but I think the described player can prob have some strange hands, like TT or JJ that she's betting 100% for value on the riv here. I'd guess it's something like 65% value-bet and 35% total bluff with a worse A hi, 3x or 6x. So I think you lose a bit of money calling.

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At those percentages this call is barely +ev, yes?

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Although I think you got her this time.

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Heh - good guess. I'm going to try hard to post some soul-reading calls that ended in tragedy soon though. (Outcome to follow.)

I wanted to go into my exact thought processes on the turn and river actions first.

Turn: this kind of player doesn't let streets go by quietly. If I check, she's taking the pot. If I bet, I think a weak bet like the one I actually used folds out her air and maybe her overcards, but none of her pocket pairs and goofy draws. If I bet bigger she folds a couple more hands but probably not many - I'm thinking if she has for instance a bare 6 that she would fold that. But if she has a bare 6 I don't mind a call, so that's OK. Then there's also a shot she has 67, in which case I can b/f, in which case a smaller bet is better. So even though it might be better to just c/f and wait for a better hand to take her money (this is true btw - I had nabbed about 15 from her on two recent hands with careful value betting, and she couldn't find a fold even though she complained that she knew she was beat), I decided to make the smaller bet and come-what-may.

River: I'm just guessing that the 2 didn't help her (it's really the best possible blank) and that her big bet means either "please fold" or "I have a straight." I figured she was bluffing maybe 40% to half the time, mostly because I think she would have raised the turn with a real hand and I don't think she would bet the river this strong without one - but reading bad players that carefully doesn't always pan out.

Hand ranges: almost any two preflop. After the flop I think Ax is a lot of her range since it has an ass-end gutshot and the ace; also 6x, 3x, any pocket pair weighted somewhat toward 66 and 33, any pair to the board, a set, overcard hands like KJ/KQ, and maybe even unseeable hands like backdoor flush draws. The turn action doesn't narrow that down a whole lot except that I don't think she has a set, and her range is now weighted away from overcards. On the river I think the 2 doesn't help most of her range, and the big bet is suspicious enough to call, since it makes a lot of her one pair hands less likely.

Results in white: she had 69o... and angrily open-pushed the next hand, which was even more rewarding than winning this pot.

cool. I wasn't sure rly about the math behind my post, just figured it was really close.

if you think you have implied tilt odds (and won't be too pissed if she shows up with like 99 and you pay her off) then the call becomes +ev even if it's slightly bad in a vaccum.

So nh.

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Originally Posted by Genitruc

cool. I wasn't sure rly about the math behind my post, just figured it was really close.

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Oh - I'm not an obsessive math guy but people bet the pot or close to it so frequently that I just keep in mind that the odds on that specific call are 2:1, so you need a 33.3% chance of winning for the call to break even. Her river bet here was basically a pot-sized bet, which made the math easy and also tipped me off that my odds of winning might be the required 33.3% or better.

imo you were good fourteen fortyforths of the time lol