FD + 2 overs vs 2 all ins

SB is 19/14/4 over 75 hands, UTG is 20/18/4 over 150 hands. Both are aggro tag 2p2ers who have been in line so far. Comments on flop raise as well as the call. After the 2nd guy calls AI im sure atleast 1 of them has a set, if not both. Obv a flopped flush is possible but much less likely. I was getting ~2.5:1 so i need to be ~28% for a breakeven call, and not counting the 2 overcards im right about 30%. Stove says im 32% even against 2 sets, so the call seems correct, but at the time i thought it was close to breakeven but called because i want to gambooool for the 400bb pot.

comments on the whole hand please.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($27.75)
SB ($63.40)
BB ($74.20)
UTG ($66.90)
MP ($59.15)
Hero ($70.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif.
UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($8) 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $5, Hero raises to $15, SB folds, BB raises to $72.2, UTG calls $59.90 (All-In), Hero calls $53.65 (All-In).

eh, i think this answer could best be answered with some poker stoving.

The pot is $154.55 and you need to make a $53.65 call, so you're getting 2.88:1 (need 25.75% to win)


Judging by my stoving some ranges, this seems like a marginal call:

Board: 9c Tc 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.835% 26.84% 00.00% 90628 0.00 { AcQd }
Hand 1: 36.582% 33.73% 02.86% 113899 9648.00 { TT-99, 44, KcQc, KcJc, T9s, 8c7c, 8c6c, 6c5c, T9o }
Hand 2: 36.582% 33.73% 02.86% 113899 9648.00 { TT-99, 44, KcQc, KcJc, T9s, 8c7c, 8c6c, 6c5c, T9o }

griff, you read my mind. fortunately you arent a lazy p.o.s. like me and actually stoved it.

You could 3-bet preflop, but I think calling is also fine.

Don't raise the flop.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by will641

griff, you read my mind. fortunately you arent a lazy p.o.s. like me and actually stoved it.

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haha yah, it's amazing how procrastinating one thing.. leads to pokerstove motivation.

OP - rest of the hand was played fine. preflop call is ok, given that he's UTG, but he's somewhat looseish, probably enough so to 3-bet this on occasion as well. Flop as played is fine, you can't do anything differently really.

I'd probably make a bigger flop raise to like 20-23ish, cause you'd probably raise pretty hard here if you had two pair/set.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dsaxton

You could 3-bet preflop, but I think calling is also fine.

Don't raise the flop.

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ive been calling w/ AQ about 80%, raising 20% recently vs UTG raisers and it seems to be working well. I will 3bet AQ more like 50/50 if an UTG raiser is like 22/18 or something, but 14% PFR i think AQ plays better as a call vs his UTG range.

Whats your reason behind not raising the flop? im raising the flop with a FD, set, and maybe even 2 pair hand here in most situations, why is this one different? is it solely on the fact that its 3 way still?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dsaxton

Don't raise the flop.

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Why aren't you raising this flop?

I think calling is pretty brutal. It's not like you're getting any action once the fourth club falls most of the time. Might as well raise now for fold equity, and we have good equity if called/raised.

This scenario with two all-ins in front of us is rarely gonna happen.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Why aren't you raising this flop?

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Position, balance and lots of money behind.

To avoid a scenario like the one above. There are times to semi-bluff, but not when an UTG raiser is betting into a field of players on a flop like this when stacks are deep. He'll often have a reasonable hand that has strong equity against yours, and you still have the players behind you to worry about. You could easily end up with at least one player shoving over your raise, and now you have to make a crying call.

One way to look at it is that your equity is typically much higher the less action there is on the flop. By encouraging a lot of action, you encourage folds when your equity is greatest and force yourself to get all-in when your equity is lowest.

As far as "balance" goes, you can achieve the same balance by not raising with sets or two pair here either, which has a lot of merit when stacks are deep. Anyways, this is a situation that comes up so rarely that balance hardly matters.

i dont think raising this flop is bad at all, but i dont really like raise/folding. however, seeing as we have two all ins from two reg tags, it seems more like a fold, because so often we are up vs like, a set and a made flush. do we think UTG is capable of doing this with like JcJx+? also the check/3-bet jam by BB is a flush like 80% of the time imo. i dunno if he would risk checking a set there, but yeah.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dsaxton

As far as "balance" goes.

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I like the flat with the A:club: for balance because a turned or rivered club is such a great scare card.

Problem is his lead into a 4-way pot on this flop looks really strong and there aren't many other hands you could conceivably be calling with that the club turn would scare. Maybe three combos of JJ with a club, and the ace. That's about it unless we go for pot control with T9s, or trap because we already have the nut flush. I'd usually raise the nuts on this flop but a call is arguable depending on just how much the blinds suck.

On a turned club I think UTG should put us on the nuts more than 50% of the time.

flop raise isnt pretty