200NL: AA - fold here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($278.39)
UTG+1 ($229.15)
UTG+2 ($37)
MP1 ($376.77)
MP2 ($50)
MP3 ($218.25)
CO ($237.80)
Button ($122.60)
Hero ($221)
BB ($34)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif.
UTG calls $2, 4 folds, MP3 calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $11, 1 fold, UTG calls $10, MP3 folds.

Flop: ($28) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $20, UTG raises to $50, Hero ????

Villain could be semi-bluffing with this board. However, he is running at something like 18/6/1 (over 80 hands only). He quickly calls my PFR. But he quickly raise FLOP.
If we call here the pot would be $128 and we would have $160 left.
What to do here?
If villain was a bit more aggressive I would be willing to stack off.

call and see what he is going to do on the turn.

this is similiar to the hand daven posted a few threads below, and once again im very worried of a set. But as you wont be pot commited if you just flat and revaluate on turn i think that is the best line. If the turn is a blank and he bets strongly again id fold. In my experience at 100nl fullring this is a set a hell of a lot, almost enough to argue for a fold on the flop.

flop raise is so small that you gotta call and make your final commitment plan on the turn. Dont fold often after putting one third of your starting stack in the pot.

calling to reevaluate on the turn really sounds like a bad idea. we are oop, and villain just needs to bet again to take it down, or check behind for a free card, or do any number of things that we don't like. decide on the flop if you are comfortable stacking with your overpair here, and if not, then fold. I personally would 3bet the flop and call a push/open push all turns. but that is just me, and i probably stack off too easily with overpairs

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pgil

calling to reevaluate on the turn really sounds like a bad idea. we are oop, and villain just needs to bet again to take it down, or check behind for a free card, or do any number of things that we don't like. decide on the flop if you are comfortable stacking with your overpair here, and if not, then fold. I personally would 3bet the flop and call a push/open push all turns. but that is just me, and i probably stack off too easily with overpairs

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Given an 18/6 stacking off range on this flop and our equity against it, I think getting it allin on the flop here would be the worst way to play it.

I'm just wondering how often the villain is being retarded by playing QQ-KK like this as compared to the times he does in fact have a set.

the board isn't really too connected - and i'm not the best on timing tells but are quick raises usually draws? i wouldn't think so. also if the 1 is his af it's pretty much meaningless over 80 hands. i guess i call and check turn, but that sucks, but i think raising sucks more.