100NL Top two facing heat from NIT

So this guy is a 14/9/2.5 nit with no history. I haven't seen him get out of line and we've been staying out of each other's way.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($55.20)
MP ($82.85)
CO ($47.25)
Button ($56.50)
SB ($77.80)
BB ($28)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
Hero raises to $2, MP calls $2, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6.25) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, MP raises to $11, BB folds, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($28.25) Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)

If you aren't going to 3bet the flop then just crai the turn.

I think this line is best because a nit may fold AK or AQ to a flop 3bet but will probably feel pot stuck if he bets, especially when he picks up the gutter. If he has 222 then obviously gg.

Donk the turn.

OK so I checked and he bets 20. Now what?

My thoughts are that he wouldnt raise AK/AQ on the flop. If anything he'd call down to extract. AA and AK also raise pre almost always. JJ I can see calling... So I'm up against JJ/22/AJ almost always here. Still think its a c/rai?

if he has you beat you just have to pay the man. you have a monster..so get it in there.

what range are you guys honestly putting him on? I would say that he raises flop with AQ close to 0% of the time, and with AK once in a while, and then almost always checks back the turn with either, since that is the sane play to make when you are a nit. This is a pretty damn interesting hand even though it is at 50nl and deserves a much more thoughtful discussion than you guys are giving it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

what range are you guys honestly putting him on? I would say that he raises flop with AQ close to 0% of the time, and with AK once in a while, and then almost always checks back the turn with either, since that is the sane play to make when you are a nit.

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My thinking exactly. I can't see anything we beat making a play like this cept a bluff, and last time I checked, nits don't tend to bluff unknowns in huge pots like this.

Another thought, this frop is dry as hell. If he has a set/top 2, why would he be raising instead of calling? Basically I think his entire range calls a flop bet a good amount of the time, so raising doesn't make that much sense unless hes kind of bad/expects us to stack off with TPTK.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

what range are you guys honestly putting him on? I would say that he raises flop with AQ close to 0% of the time, and with AK once in a while, and then almost always checks back the turn with either, since that is the sane play to make when you are a nit. This is a pretty damn interesting hand even though it is at 50nl and deserves a much more thoughtful discussion than you guys are giving it.

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So he has 222 85% of the time, JJJ ~5-10% and bluffs the rest? Even nits spaz out occasionally, and if we fold here we're only calling with AAA/JJJ. (I'm not advocating to call because I'm worried about being exploited, I just think our hand is too big to fold when we don't have that strong a read)