Gotta stand up to you at some point

This hand involves the 3-bet monkey from my previous post. I can't find the hand history but this represents it pretty much accurately. More info on villain: he was basically a donk, running 48/15/10 over a good sample. His MO was 3-betting and post-flop aggression - strangely, he didn't open that many hands (I was raising more than he was) but his 3-bet % was about 20 and his aggression frequency on all streets was really high, like 70%. Fair amount of donk betting and check-raising.

I was in a number of hands with him, and had let him take the majority of those small pots, not wanting to take a lot of stands with no pair no draw. Ace high might have been good at some point, but he showed he was willing to stack off himself with ace high or almost any pair if he'd already put a lot of money in, so I didn't want to get too crazy fighting over thin edges with him. The most significant prior hand was the AKs one that I already posted, where I pushed over his obvious squeeze (he folded it). My table image was generally TAgg and I think he felt comfortable pushing me out of pots.

I was the button with :9s: :7s: - villain was the small blind. Effective stacks were $50. At this point I had him covered - he took a beating on the aforementioned ace high-stackoff and had rebought up to 100 BBs.

Folded around to me, I made a standard open to 1.50. Villain called, BB folded.

Pot was now 3.50. Flop - :Ks: :5d: :3h:. He checked, I bet 2.50, and he check-raised to 8.00. I hesitated a few seconds and called.

Pot was now 19.50. Turn - :8s:. He now hesitated a few seconds and checked. I bet 14.00.

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What do you think? Do you think this is a good board to take a stand? If so, do you like calling or 3-betting on the flop? (My thought was, if I had AK or KQ or KJ here, I'm usually calling; so I don't want to play this hand too differently.) The turn gives me a bunch of outs if he really has something - should I take a free card there, or pounce on his weakness while I have the chance?

One piece of clarification - villain was capable of folding post-flop, he just hadn't needed to that often. The ace high hand I mentioned was one where he raised pre-flop and got into a pissing match with a somewhat weak player. He was obviously trying to pull off a bluff, but the other guy pushed over villain's bet on the turn. At that point the pot was like $80 and he only had to call $18, so after much thought he called with his ace high. So it wasn't a completely awful stackoff, but more of a spot where 1. his aggression got him into trouble, and 2. he obviously over-estimated how pot-committed he was, given that his hand was really weak and his opponent was pretty unlikely to bluff. He even went to great lengths to explain this after the fact when the whole table was laughing at him.

I like a turn check here, as we have good equity and don't wanna get raised off it and given how dry the board was I'd prob check behind here with most K's and bet river when checked to.

Checking here keeps our range a lot wider I think, and there's no reason we can't bet on all rivers if checked to again. Any hand that will bet into us on river after we check turn, will probably c/c this turn anyhow.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Checking here keeps our range a lot wider I think, and there's no reason we can't bet on all rivers if checked to again. Any hand that will bet into us on river after we check turn, will probably c/c this turn anyhow.

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Herein lies the problem: 1. I think this particular guy is very unlikely to check the river if I check behind the turn, regardless of what he holds - his aggression is way too high to let a decent pot go that easily. 2. I think his range for river betting is therefore a good bit wider than his range for turn calling. And since I may have nine high on the river, I won't be able to look him up if and when he bets.

There is one big x factor though, which is that he probably bets a spade on the river close to 100% of the time. How big of a bet I'm not sure, but his tendency has been pot betting or even slight overbetting. If he folds most of his hands (which I assume are mostly garbage) to a turn bet, but would throw some money my way SPECIFICALLY when I make my hand on the river, does that mean I should consider checking behind..? I guess I'd have to start doing math to figure that out, and assign some guess-percentages to his possible actions. But as the hand was playing, my logic was "a bird in the hand..."

Ok if he never gives up his range on river, then betting can be ok.

If he's as aggro as you say, it could even be possible he's giong for the good old double c/r. That would REALLY suck.

Also, if he ever has 24 here (OESD) then I like a turn check even more, cause you mega own him on a 6.