Time to fold that full house.
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
7 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($116.68)
UTG+1 ($24.27)
MP ($48.37)
CO ($100.59)
BTN ($123.03)
Hero ($149.38)
BB ($70.92)
Pre-flop: ($0.75, 7 players) Hero is SB :jd: :jh:
UTG raises to $2, 4 folds, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, UTG calls $5
Flop: :qh: :ac: :js: ($14.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $8, UTG calls $8
Turn: :as: ($30.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $25, UTG calls $25
River: :kh: ($80.50, 2 players)
Hero ($109.38)?
These are the beginners tables at Party, which are pretty soft. This villain is 21/10/2.1, pretty passive preflop and pretty aggressive post flop. The two times I have seen him 4bet was 1) headsup and 2) in a min-raise battle with KK (checked database - just remembered little/no 3/4 betting PF). Post flop his aggression frequency for all streets are 40-50%, so he's obviously sometimes betting without a strong hand, his fold-tos are in the 40-60% range and his went to showdown is at 20% so he likes settling hands through aggression/folding before showdown.
All of the above is almost completely unimportant. He raises 4bb from UTG and then calls a properly sized 3bet where he will end up being in position. His range is very very narrow here imo. You could argue that due to the stack sizes he could profitably call the 3bet with any pocket pair or suited connector, but I don't think this particular villain would have spotted that. Even for the pre-flop call I think his range has to be around 99+, AJ+. When he calls the flop I think that narrows his range to pretty much QQ+, AJ+ and if I'd had any sense I'd have slowed down already on the turn. The only hand realistically in his range that I beat on the turn is AK - and with the K on the river even that hope is gone.
Anyway, as I got further into the hand I forgot about pre-flop and flop and that he couldn't have played TT, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QT, JT or QJ this way really. I thought that surely my full house beats SOME combinations he'd have gotten here with and that I had some equity in the hand.
On the turn I saw that I had improved to a full house! No straights can foil me now and I decided to commit - I bet 25 because he had 100 behind and I figured that 75 into 80 on the river would be appropriately sized. This can be referred to as falling in love with your hand or getting married to the hand. Realistically looking at the ranges now - I wasn't ahead even on the turn when I decided to commit.
On the river I wasn't happy. I saw the king and knew that I had something like the worst possible full house. But it's still a full house I thought - I could beat any straight, two pair or A-rag hand. I didn't reflect enough to note that the chance of him holding a hand I could beat having called a preflop 3bet and a flop bet was near zero. What I did briefly reflect on was that with the deep stack I now had about 10% of my bankroll on this table and that I couldn't allow that fact to make me play scared - if I couldn't play a hand like this unafraid then I shouldn't be on this table in the first place. I then briefly considered that I had ACTUALLY decided to commit on the turn already. And I only have to win 1 time in 3 to be breakeven and surely he has worse more than that. Thus, I should shove.
So, I shoved and went from a tidy profit for the day to a tidy loss.
I post this in part as penance to help me remember and in part to remind other beginners - there is a difference between absolute hand strength and relative hand strength.
On the turn I probably cannot say for sure that I am beat - a full house is not that weak. But on the river check/fold is the correct play.
