Mike Caro Made me Do it.

Read:
UTG is a fairly knowledgeable player who overvalues 2pair and is willing to get into pissing matches with good hands.

Also he's spewy with draws with a "Gambooool" mentality. Willing to 4-bet HU with a Flush draw even though he knows I don't 4-bet unless I'm pretty certain I'm ahead.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif.
UTG raises, Hero calls, 3 folds.

Flop: (5.40 SB) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.70 BB) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls.

River: (14.70 BB) 4http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 25.70 BB

So I guess the question is, at any point during the turn and river raise war... was I spewing?

Why didn't you re-raise pre-flop?

Mike Caro.

RERAISE PREFLOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

RAISE FLOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just a friendly reminder: This is 6max LHE!

(Mike Caro doesn't/ never has played 6max online - Oh... and he's writing for a living, right?)

Just call the river.

Your pre-flop and flop play has some issues the pre-flop police will go berzerk over, but if you don't do this often it's fine.

Flatting pre-flop, flatting a dry flop then putting in a bunch of bets in on the turn followed by making sure a bet goes in on the river is a reasonable enough way to play the hand.

I think you're misunderstanding Caro (despite your thread on the topic where you seemed to understand what he was saying).

You do not raise AA pre TO THIN THE FIELD. You do, however, raise for value.

Right, so 3-betting preflop would have thinned the field, flatting would have gotten one or two more calls for value.

amirite?

Also I've played AA about 150 times in the last month, This is the ONLY time I didn't raise with em.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Right, so 3-betting preflop would have thinned the field, flatting would have gotten one or two more calls for value.

amirite?

---

no.

u 3bet because u want whatever opponents play you to put as much money in the pot PF as possible. wether you thin or not doesnt matter.
In poker, you put the money in when you have the best hand.
the only time you are certain you have the best hand preflop is with AA.
RERAISE PF!!!!!

Flatting is more likely to get a 3 or 4 way pot where you will figure to make a lot more monies.

You 3-bet here pre-flop for balance because there are so few hands where flatting > re-raising. (AA, KK, KQs, AJs)

If UTG is spewy there's a decent chance he'll cap your 3bet preflop, which builds the pot as much as someone overcalling behind you - except you now have to beat only one hand instead of two. I think that's a good enough reason right there to 3bet this particular player.

If he's not spewy he might still be strong enough to cap, and regardless of what he does if someone else calls your 3bet that's one more SB you've got in the pot with the best hand.

Balancing your game is important but only if your opponents are actually paying attention and can also recognise unorthodox plays when they see them. So I think the concept is not really worth worrying about until you get to higher limit games.

At .25/.50 you're probably better off just betting and raising your good hands and folding your bad hands and not trying to be cute.

If you only played this hand and never played another hand again it's a clear flat. Getting this 3-way is soooo good.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Read:
UTG is a fairly knowledgeable player who overvalues 2pair and is willing to get into pissing matches with good hands.

Also he's spewy with draws with a "Gambooool" mentality. Willing to 4-bet HU with a Flush draw even though he knows I don't 4-bet unless I'm pretty certain I'm ahead.

So I guess the question is, at any point during the turn and river raise war... was I spewing?

---

never raise that river, what kind of hand do you think he has? if he is a knowledgeable player like u said his range on the river is reduced to mostly sets (77, 55, JJ, 88) and two overpairs (KK,QQ).
If he has a funky hand that made two pair (J8s???) then you are beat, so its spew against most of his range.
You only beat KK and QQ.
If he showed up with AJ of hearts (something tells me he did), then you should change your read from "knowledgeable player" to "maniac fish"

He still could be good on the river a lot, the problem is that better hands are 3-betting him, so he will often lose 2 extra bets when behind and rarely win more than a single bet if you're ahead.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Right, so 3-betting preflop would have thinned the field, flatting would have gotten one or two more calls for value.

amirite?

---

No. Caro is saying you should raise. He is not saying you should try to invite as many players into the pot as possible. The passage in question discusses what the reason is for raising. The reason isn't to thin the field, which is what many people think is the reason for raising. The reason you raise this, and all your good hands preflop, is for value.

I understand where Fnord is coming from...not debating that. The point is simply that what you've done isn't what Caro is suggesting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Right, so 3-betting preflop would have thinned the field, flatting would have gotten one or two more calls for value.

amirite?

---

No. Caro is saying you should raise. He is not saying you should try to invite as many players into the pot as possible. The passage in question discusses what the reason is for raising. The reason isn't to thin the field, which is what many people think is the reason for raising. The reason you raise this, and all your good hands preflop, is for value.

I understand where Fnord is coming from...not debating that. The point is simply that what you've done isn't what Caro is suggesting.

---

Yeah, Caro refers to thinning the field postflop with a medium strength hand that may not even be best. A concept written by Sklansky in his Theory of Poker. This concept in a nutshell is that if there are say 4 players in the pot and the pot is big enough you should do anything to kick players out with, say, medium pair, even if you are behind, IF and ONLY IF this will increase the chances of you winning the pot.

EXAMPLE
Say players 1 2 3 and 4 are in the pot with you. Players chances of winning the pot:
1-10%
2-40%
3-10%
4-10%

you-30%

if you manage to thin the field to just you and the favorite, the result may become:
player2-60%
you-40%

you thus would increase your chances of winning the pot by an extra 10%
Sklansky argues that raising to thin the field in this situation is good because the added equity you gain (the extra 10%), plus the added folding equity you gain from your aggressive raise that may lead the remaining villain to fold on later streets (when scare cards come, or because he is a weak player), plus the chance you may actually have the best hand, plus the chance you will improve to the best hand by the river, all combined, make this a complicated but money making semibluff type move.

Caro argues that since you will make the underdogs fold, you will stay heads up against the strongest hand, getting less effective odds without the other chasers overcalling and no bluffing equity since the remaining villain has a strong hand that he will mostly not ever fold.

In no way, "thinning the field" refers to preflop raises. A somewhat similar concept preflop is ISOLATION, but it has a different purpose.

Simplified explanation of "thinning the field" by asdpikas for mr ragnar

For a real, truthful explanation, please read "The Theory of Poker"

edit:
PS: sklansky and Caro have been going about this for quite some time

Also, people use the term thinning the field refferring to preflop raises, outside of it's original context.
Preflop raises are for value or for isolation, never to thin the field.

I'd say every extra bet you put in starting with the turn cap was probably slightly -EV. More than 1 bet going in on the river is a travesty.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

If you only played this hand and never played another hand again it's a clear flat. Getting this 3-way is soooo good.

---

WOW! That is just sooooo wrong!!!!!!!!!

To say you want to play AA multiway is just plain ridiculous!

Thanks, though, for just CCing, and letting me in the pot w/ a hand I would've mucked for 3. Thanks for allowing me to snap you on the turn, where I would've been focused on one of my other 4 tables while you play your AA HU, as you should be! Thanks.

Ask Stox, Bryce, or Doughnutz what they would do w/ AA pre. But, then again, what do THEY know... they're only three of the best online LHE players around.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by socal1111

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

If you only played this hand and never played another hand again it's a clear flat. Getting this 3-way is soooo good.

---

WOW! That is just sooooo wrong!!!!!!!!!

To say you want to play AA multiway is just plain ridiculous!

Thanks, though, for just CCing, and letting me in the pot w/ a hand I would've mucked for 3. Thanks for allowing me to snap you on the turn, where I would've been focused on one of my other 4 tables while you play your AA HU, as you should be! Thanks.

Ask Stox, Bryce, or Doughnutz what they would do w/ AA pre. But, then again, what do THEY know... they're only three of the best online LHE players around.

---

LOL
+1
what socal says!
the hand in this post is one of the worst AA hands i have seen played
not raisin the flop when u are surely ahead
cappin turn and river with no idea where ur at!
LOL

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Right, so 3-betting preflop would have thinned the field, flatting would have gotten one or two more calls for value.

amirite?

---

No. Caro is saying you should raise. He is not saying you should try to invite as many players into the pot as possible. The passage in question discusses what the reason is for raising. The reason isn't to thin the field, which is what many people think is the reason for raising. The reason you raise this, and all your good hands preflop, is for value.

I understand where Fnord is coming from...not debating that. The point is simply that what you've done isn't what Caro is suggesting.

---

Please go to page 305 of Mike Caro's "most profitable holdem advice":

"Often overlooked strategy #4.
Usually don't re-raise when you have a very strong hand and you'll force opponents to call a double raise or to fold. Analysis suggests that you'll make more long range profit by just calling and "inviting" other opponents to call also.

...Further down the page...

Analsys has PROVEN that a pair of aces in limit hold'em games make most money, on average, when played against four or five opponents, not just against one. In accourdance with this knowledge, I just call, invinting more players into my pot. Sure, it's risky, and I'll lose many more pots than I would otherwise; but I'll average more profit-- and that's all I care about-- I call.

So what's this about what Mike Caro was, and wasn't talking about?

Also the more I look at it, the less I like my flop play. But at the time, I was worried he would just fold on the flop, and I wanted to see the river for a bet on each round.

The optimal number of players you want in the pot with Aces is certainly more than heads-up. I don't claim to be good enough to give you an exact number, but 3-4 makes me estatic.

That third guy is giving you twice as much money as they peel with over-cards drawing nearly dead and raise with no-good top pair hands on 5 outs. Both are about the best edges you'll ever regularly see in poker. Heads-up with them win you more pots, but there really isn't any harm done by getting the third and forth guy in there so you can win more money.

That said, I understand why the pre-flop police are out in full force here. You should be re-raising with an edge as a core poker principal. It's human nature to try to trap too light and so many online players will play weak positions aburdly fast. So many players in generally will call down too light (this is why I LOVE to bet big in NLHE games.)

Caro is no technical genius compared to the cutting edge work being done these days (although he published some of the first 5 card draw charts), but he's more right than wrong here. See the SB defense section of Winning in Tough Hold'em Games.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by socal1111

Ask Stox, Bryce, or Doughnutz what they would do w/ AA pre. But, then again, what do THEY know... they're only three of the best online LHE players around.

---

All 3 3-bet AA for balance with all the weaker hands they're 3-betting. I also referenced a comment about this in Stox's book.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Also the more I look at it, the less I like my flop play.

---

It's such a dry flop, meh. I'd probably just go ahead and pop it though.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BennyLaRue

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Right, so 3-betting preflop would have thinned the field, flatting would have gotten one or two more calls for value.

amirite?

---

No. Caro is saying you should raise. He is not saying you should try to invite as many players into the pot as possible. The passage in question discusses what the reason is for raising. The reason isn't to thin the field, which is what many people think is the reason for raising. The reason you raise this, and all your good hands preflop, is for value.

I understand where Fnord is coming from...not debating that. The point is simply that what you've done isn't what Caro is suggesting.

---

Please go to page 305 of Mike Caro's "most profitable holdem advice":

"Often overlooked strategy #4.
Usually don't re-raise when you have a very strong hand and you'll force opponents to call a double raise or to fold. Analysis suggests that you'll make more long range profit by just calling and "inviting" other opponents to call also.

...Further down the page...

Analsys has PROVEN that a pair of aces in limit hold'em games make most money, on average, when played against four or five opponents, not just against one. In accourdance with this knowledge, I just call, invinting more players into my pot. Sure, it's risky, and I'll lose many more pots than I would otherwise; but I'll average more profit-- and that's all I care about-- I call.

So what's this about what Mike Caro was, and wasn't talking about?

---

Dont have that book, but i'm pretty sure it's not about shorthanded LHE

edit

my previous post regarding thinning the field postflop clearly was not what you where referring to. Hard to keep track of what the maniac writes, and he seems to get crazier in his theories...
I'll definitely stick to Sklansky, Miller and Stox

Wait... so in order for this shit to qualify as good advice, the entire book has to be written about 6-max LHE since I'm playing 6-max LHE?

Shit, why didn't someone tell me this before I spent all that money on books about generic holdem poker?

FUCK!

AA vs 1, 2 and 3 top 20% hands.

5,209,105 games 4.719 secs 1,103,857 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 84.959% 83.97% 01.00% 4373864 52288.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 15.041% 14.04% 01.00% 731371 52289.50 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }


3,758,111 games 6.485 secs 579,508 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.958% 72.76% 01.20% 2734574 45195.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 13.136% 12.40% 00.74% 466005 27725.17 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 2: 12.906% 11.93% 00.98% 448260 36840.67 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }

3,437,191 games 13.500 secs 254,606 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.312% 64.07% 01.25% 2202162 42870.67 { AA }
Hand 1: 11.566% 10.78% 00.79% 370398 27164.83 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 2: 11.557% 10.76% 00.79% 369966 27291.17 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 3: 11.565% 10.77% 00.79% 370355 27202.33 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Wait... so in order for this shit to qualify as good advice, the entire book has to be written about 6-max LHE since I'm playing 6-max LHE?

Shit, why didn't someone tell me this before I spent all that money on books about generic holdem poker?

FUCK!

---

No, but many things change from FR to 6max and you should adapt your game to fit the game you play.
Just as you would be more aggressive HU, you also must be more aggro in 6max than in FR. You also should play looser the shorter the game is.
When everyone plays looser and more aggro, you gain most by playing your big hands fast.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by asdpikas

When everyone plays looser and more aggro, you gain most by playing your big hands fast.

---

Getting another guy in there drawing thin is worth more than an extra bet or two heads-up.

You're way over-looking the problem with flatting. If I know you flat Aces, then your 3-bet range becomes weaker and I can cold-cap a wider range against you, particularly if the initial raiser is aware enough to fold lots of hands for 2 more small bets. Also, the opener can narrow down your range when he makes the mandatory 1 small bet call. 25c/50c players won't make these adjustments.

Getting back to full ring, flatting in a wild live game could get you into a 5+ way pot for two bets really easily and that's not fun (even if there is value after the fourth guy.)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

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Originally Posted by asdpikas

When everyone plays looser and more aggro, you gain most by playing your big hands fast.

---

Getting another guy in there drawing thin is worth more than an extra bet or two heads-up.

You're way over-looking the problem with flatting. If I know you flat Aces, then your 3-bet range becomes weaker and I can cold-cap a wider range against you, particularly if the initial raiser is aware enough to fold lots of hands for 2 more small bets. Also, the opener can narrow down your range when he makes the mandatory 1 small bet call. 25c/50c players won't make these adjustments.

---

Right, but that's only if I flat every time in a predictable manner.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by asdpikas

When everyone plays looser and more aggro, you gain most by playing your big hands fast.

---

Getting another guy in there drawing thin is worth more than an extra bet or two heads-up.

You're way over-looking the problem with flatting. If I know you flat Aces, then your 3-bet range becomes weaker and I can cold-cap a wider range against you, particularly if the initial raiser is aware enough to fold lots of hands for 2 more small bets. Also, the opener can narrow down your range when he makes the mandatory 1 small bet call. 25c/50c players won't make these adjustments.

Getting back to full ring, flatting in a wild live game could get you into a 5+ way pot for two bets really easily and that's not fun (even if there is value after the fourth guy.)

---

dunno...
if i'm sitting on BB with a small pair, i cant call a 3bet PF, but for one sbet, i'll go set hunting, and that will hurt the guy with AA, a LOT
No set, no bet. AA gain one small bet from me.
Yes set, AA loose pot big time, and will definitely give me action on all streets.

Same goes for big suited connectors.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by asdpikas

if i'm sitting on BB with a small pair, i cant call a 3bet PF, but for one sbet

---

Your set will get set-over-set for an even bigger hurtting to offset that some. Also, most hands that will come along are unpaired hands that are crushed. Even 88 as played by your typical opponent isn't playing fit-or fold in a 3-way pot for two bets.

Finally, I forgot the biggest hand-reading distaster with flatting. If I can put you on pretty much KK+/KQs/AJs when you flat an EP raise, then I can make some very sick pre-flop folds and vastly simplify post-flop decisions. Again, unknowns in a 25c/50c aren't anywhere near capable of this.

Examining the preflop play of this hand in a vacuum (i.e., ignoring questions of balance/deception and postflop expectation):

It's obvious that since you have the best possible starting hand then every extra bet that goes into the pot preflop adds to your profit.

Taking your equity vs. opponents from Fnord's PS analysis, and defining your preflop profit (PP) as = equity * number of bets in pot minus your contribution to pot, we can do a mathematical analysis of the question.

Here are some possible scenarios (not exhaustive):

2 BET POTS
If you flat call and everyone else folds (1 opponent) your preflop profit (PP) = 2.68 SB
If you flat call and BB calls behind you (2 opponents) PP = 2.81
...if you flat call and SB calls behind you (2 opponents) PP = 3.37
...if button cold calls and the blinds fold (2 opponents) PP = 3.55
If you flat call and BB and button call behind (3 opponents) PP = 3.53

3 BET POTS
If you 3bet and everyone else but UTG folds (1 opponent), PP = 3.38
If you 3bet and BB cold calls, or you flat and BB 3bets (2 opponents), PP = 4.03
...if SB is in and the others fold (2 opponents), PP = 4.59
...if button is in and the blinds fold (2 opponents), PP = 4.77
If BB and button are both in (3 opponents), PP = 5.45

CAPPED POTS
If you 3bet and UTG caps and others fold (1 opponent), PP = 4.078
If it's capped and BB is in the pot (2 opponents) , PP = 5.25
...if it's capped and SB is the third player in (2 opponents), PP =5.43
...if it's capped and button is in but not blinds (2 opponents), PP = 5.51
If it's capped and BB and button are both in (3 opponents), PP =6.73

A couple of observations:

1) The present hand led to the worst case scenario in terms of PP: A flat call followed by all folds.

2) More generally, flatting almost never gets you more profit than 3betting. If you 3bet and UTG caps 20% of the time (assuming everyone else folds), your PP = 3.38 *.8 + 4.08 *.2 = 3.52 which is as good as a four way pot for two bets each.

3) While flatting doesn't preclude someone from 3betting behind you, pots are going to have a greater chance of being capped if you 3bet than if you flat.

to be continued....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ragnar4

Analsys has PROVEN that a pair of aces in limit hold'em games make most money, on average, when played against four or five opponents, not just against one. In accourdance with this knowledge, I just call, invinting more players into my pot. Sure, it's risky, and I'll lose many more pots than I would otherwise; but I'll average more profit-- and that's all I care about-- I call.

---

Others have already touched on this, how often are you getting a community pot in 6-max, especially if it's already been raised UTG? This is the key consideration and it won't hold the same against 1 or 2 opps. You have to put the advice into the proper context.

Second, I'd like to see the analysis he's referring to. There's a big difference between showing the math and him saying there is some math out there that proves it, go on faith.

Nice post, DD.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DrivingDog

It's obvious that since you have the best possible starting hand then every extra bet that goes into the pot preflop adds to your profit.

---

You're ignoring all of the post-flop money.

PF is not really a big deal at all people

In a game where people get overly attached to mediocre showdown strength I don't see why it's bad to invite a 3 way pot with a hand like Aces.

I did some calcs and it seems to make little difference in preflop value whether you raise or flat AA here (you can see my calculations below - bring a pillow and some aspirin). Given this, the factors of balance/deception/postflop expectation are going to be the crucial ones here.

If anything, the deception/postflop expectation value gained by not raising probably outweighs most other things at lower limits, so for that reason I've come around to liking it in a .25/.50 game. OTOH, it is considered a donkey play at the higher limits just because it is so hard to balance and observant opponents will catch on pretty quick (as Fnord said).



ANALYSIS:
If we make some assumptions about how each opponent plays preflop, then we can estimate the probability of various scenarios and calculate a modified preflop profit (MPP) by multiplying the PP by each probability. Summing these for each of the two possible actions (calling vs. 3betting) can give us an overall preflop value estimate for each action (again ignoring issues of balance/deception/postflop expectation).

UTG: Open-raising: 66+, A9+, KT+, QT+, JT+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s+
Capping: 99+, AK, AJs+

Btn: Calling two bets: 66-77, A9-AT, KT-KJ, QT-QJ, JT, A4-A8s, K8-K9s+, Q9s, J9s+, T9s
3 betting a bet and cold call/ calling a 3bet: 88, AJ-AQ, KQ, A9-ATs, KTs+, QTs +
Capping: 99+, AK, AJs+

SB: Calling two bets: 66-77, A7-AT, K9-KJ, QT-QJ, JT, A2-A8s, K6-K9s, Q8-Q9s, J8s+, T8s+
3 betting a bet and cold call/ calling a 3bet/ capping: same as button

BB: Calling two bets: 44-77,A3-AT, K7-KJ, Q8+, J8+, A2-A8s, K2-K9s, Q4-Q9s, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s+
3 betting a bet and cold call/calling a 3bet/ capping: same as button
Assume UTG's open-raising range is 20% and that no-one who calls two will fold preflop to a 3bet or cap.

CALLING PREFLOP:

a) no-one raises:
HU with UTG (5.5 SB)... 0.36; MPP = (.85 * 5.5 - 2) * 0.36 = 0.96
3 ways with Btn (7.5 SB)... 0.045; MPP = 0.16
3 ways with SB (7 SB)... 0.072; MPP = 0.23
3 ways with BB (6.5 SB)... 0.18; MPP = 0.51
4 ways with Btn and SB (9 SB)... 0.009; MPP = 0.04
4 ways with Btn and BB (8.5 SB)... 0.0225; MPP = 0.08
4 ways with SB and BB (8 SB)... 0.036; MPP = .012
5 ways (10 SB)... 0.0045; MPP = 0.02

b) it's 3bet by Btn, SB or BB (then capped by Hero if no-one else does):
3 ways with Btn (13.5 SB)... 0.081; MPP =0.49
3 ways with SB (13 SB)... 0.072; MPP = 0.40
3 ways with BB (12.5 SB)... 0.060; MPP = 0.32
4 ways with Btn and SB (17 SB)... 0.018; MPP = 0.13
4 ways with Btn and BB (16.5 SB)... 0.017; MPP = 0.12
4 ways with SB and BB (16 SB)... 0.02; MPP = 0.14
5 ways (20 SB)... 0.003; MPP = 0.02

TOTAL MPP FROM CALLING PREFLOP: 3.74



3 BETTING PREFLOP:

a) It's a 3 bet pot (only calls behind, no cap):
HU with UTG (7.5 SB)... 0.588; MPP = 1.98
3 ways with Btn (10.5 SB)... 0.032; MPP = 0.16
3 ways with SB (10 SB)... 0.032; MPP = 0.15
3 ways with BB (9.5 SB)... 0.032; MPP = 0.14
4 ways with Btn and SB (13 SB)... 0.002; MPP = 0.01
4 ways with Btn and BB (12.5 SB)... 0.002; MPP = 0.01
4 ways with SB and BB (12 SB)... 0.002; MPP = 0.01
5 ways (15 SB)... 0.0001; MPP < 0.005

b) It's a capped pot:
HU with UTG (9.5 SB)... 0.146; MPP = 0.55
3 ways with Btn (13.5 SB)... 0.049; MPP = 0.27
3 ways with SB (13 SB)... 0.049; MPP = 0.26
3 ways with BB (12.5 SB)... 0.049; MPP = 0.24
4 ways with Btn and SB (17 SB)... 0.007; MPP = 0.05
4 ways with Btn and BB (16.5 SB)... 0.007; MPP = 0.04
4 ways with SB and BB (16 SB)... 0.007; MPP = 0.04
5 ways (20 SB)... 0.0005; MPP < 0.005

TOTAL MPP from 3BETTING PREFLOP: 3.91

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DrivingDog

It's obvious that since you have the best possible starting hand then every extra bet that goes into the pot preflop adds to your profit.

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You're ignoring all of the post-flop money.

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Yeah I did that because the math on the preflop money was complicated enough.

But I see your point and I agree with it. Postflop expectation is higher with a flat call here (at least as long as balance is not an issue).