Soul read or dipshitism?

Bizarre end-of-session hand. Villain was a weirdfish, running like 25/5/1. The "end of session" aspect made me want to fold so as not to cut into my profits on a hunch, but the "weirdfish and weird line" aspect made me want to look him up. The only halfway-notable hand prior to this with villain was a standard one where I raised, he called, then he check/folded the flop. That was one orbit before this.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($74.05)
BB ($46)
UTG ($75.20)
Hero (CO) ($50.35)
Button ($90.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with :Kc: :Ad:
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3.25) :2d: :6d: :8h: (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.25) :2h: (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero calls $5

River: ($18.25) :3c: (2 players)
BB bets $16, Hero calls $16

Total pot: $50.25 | Rake: $2.50

Fold > Raise > Call on the turn, but I'm hardly ever calling.

It is a weird line, and the river screams "fuck I missed my draw so I better bet big" or "FU PAY ME BIG," hopefully it's the first one.

Very interested to see what he had.

I check this flop a lot, although given the read I probably bet it as well.

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Very interested to see what he had.

I check this flop a lot, although given the read I probably bet it as well.

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I tend to check this against better players and LAggs - here I figured a bet was fine.

is it that bad that im betting this flop like 100% IP?

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Originally Posted by bode

is it that bad that im betting this flop like 100% IP?

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It depends on your table image, opener size and opponent.

Overall, I think most multi-taggs c-bet too much partiularly on boards that missed almost all of their range.

I open small and have a very aggro stationy image. Hence, I'm less inclined to bet here (I get called and bluff raised a lot) and will even call a bet on a blanked turn. (I also like to induce, particuarly against players who suck at thin value betting.)

^ Agreed. I also don't like c-betting so much on boards that invite action from aggro players when I have missed badly and feel uncomfortable playing a big pot. Anything that looks like combo draw territory, with someone who likes to checkraise, makes me think about playing the hand more passively.

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Originally Posted by Fnord

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Originally Posted by bode

is it that bad that im betting this flop like 100% IP?

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It depends on your table image, opener size and opponent.

Overall, I think most multi-taggs c-bet too much partiularly on boards that missed almost all of their range.

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this is probably why ive been losing too much money in non-showdown pots lately.

On the turn I was thinking villain's range was a lot of draws (esp. combo draws) and weak pairs - given the raggy board, maybe something like 55, 77, A6, 98, that sort of thing. I was thinking calling vs. the draws was fine but raising vs. the pairs would be better; then again I wasn't sure villain would fold the pairs if raised. I ended up defaulting to the easiest choice.

For reference, here's a hand where a better player takes the same line, but the board and my holdings are slightly different:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($75.95)
UTG ($26.45)
MP ($102.50)
Hero (CO) ($61.65)
Button ($13.05)
SB ($64.45)

Preflop: Hero is CO with :8s: :9s:
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) :Ac: :8d: :6c: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.50) :3h: (2 players)
SB bets $5.50, Hero raises to $16, 1 fold

Total pot: $19.50 | Rake: $0.95

It can be fine but I'd prefer waiting for a strong read to call this one... doesn't sound like you really had it and this guy can def bet 55 here like a weirdo.

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Originally Posted by Genitruc

It can be fine but I'd prefer waiting for a strong read to call this one... doesn't sound like you really had it and this guy can def bet 55 here like a weirdo.

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I agree. In any case, results in white: Villain had 5h 9h and MHIG. I'm thinking about starting my own theorem based on the two hands posted here - something along the lines of "you can't go too wrong playing like a spewmonkey against people who check/call the flop and then donk the turn."

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Originally Posted by Fnord

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Originally Posted by bode

is it that bad that im betting this flop like 100% IP?

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Overall, I think most multi-taggs c-bet too much partiularly on boards that missed almost all of their range.

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this is definitely true, but we are playing against a 25/5/1 who clearly isn't a thinking player and is going to be playing too passive OOP. i`d be betting this flop 100% of the time for value expecting to get ch/cd by draws i beat and weakish hands i expect to fold out by the river with multiple barrels.

as played, i like the river call. his range of hands he takes for value that way is v slim and i'd expect to be good well over 32% of the time.

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Originally Posted by UG

Fold > Raise > Call on the turn, but I'm hardly ever calling.

It is a weird line, and the river screams "fuck I missed my draw so I better bet big" or "FU PAY ME BIG," hopefully it's the first one.

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If this is your assessment of his bet tell & his range then I would think Call >>>> would be far better than Raise.

As for the hand, I see this from 55,77 or 99 type hands from semi- competent players. Usually a marginal hand that doesn't want to see the turned draw hit for free if checked through or even A/K overcards. I don't think he was thought of as competent at this point. I usually let go of the turn, but the river bet stinks to the high heavens of a bluff since he's not thin VBing that much evar!