KK monotone flop - bet sizing question

Villain is relatively unknown.
The few stats I do have have him running at 37/25/1.5.
I assume that he's not very good.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($1050.90)
CO ($94.25)
BTN ($160.30)
Hero ($1007.50)
BB ($401.70)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is SB :kh: :kd:
3 folds, Hero bets $12, BB calls $10

Flop: :7c: :3c: :9c: ($28, 2 players)
Hero bets $20, BB calls $20

Turn: :4h: ($68, 2 players)
Hero bets $52, BB calls $52

River: :3d: ($172, 2 players)
Hero bets $142, BB goes all-in $315.70, Hero folds

I am quite sure this is a fairly easy fold because I don't beat anything but a bluff, and this is rarely if ever a bluff.
I can't see him doing this with a worse 2 pair for value.

My question is mostly about bet sizing.
How bad is my river bet sizing?
How much should I be betting here?

Thoughts on all streets are of course welcomed.

If you intend to fold to a shove why the big river bet?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by silu73

If you intend to fold to a shove why the big river bet?

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I wasn't expecting a shove at all.
Once he did shove on me, I swore at myself for betting so big.

your line is good, there's plenty of value on this river and his calling range is pretty static so betting close to pot seems good.

ok, I might be leaking here, because I'd call now. my reasoning would be this is blind vs blind and considering the board he probably would have to raise any made hand except a flopped flush and he might even raise a low flush somewhere before river.

Pokerstoved it to see what we do against his range:

QQ-TT,9d9h,9d9s,9h9s,7d7h,7d7s,7h7s,3h3s,AcKc,AcQc,Ac Jc,AcTc,Ac8c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac2c,65s,Ac9d,Ac9h,Ac9 s,65o

without bluffs in his range we're 60-40 behind

I would fold against someone with no history as I assume they know I've got a big hand when 3 barreling. I would think about a C/C on the river though as a 35/27 is usually pretty aggro and will often bluff their missed flush on the river.

Also, a small blocker bet of say $40 might be an option as it may get calls from extremely weak hands such as A high and also will often induce a big raise from a missed flush as he assumes you're weak with your little pansy bet.

I used to fold these spots a lot of the time.
But with the villains stats they so often have like 9x 10c that they call down with top pair, miss their flush and given half a chance bomb any river (especially when it pairs like that).

I'd probablly call and would be quite happy with it, would not surprise me if you see a 910 hand or 79s. Sure you do see 56s and a flopped flush sometimes, but vs people with stats like that they are so bluffy and random that they total spaz when missing with their flush and love trying to rep paired boards.

I'd say its pretty close but from recent experience i'd lean towards a call.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by silu73

If you intend to fold to a shove why the big river bet?

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Bet river big because that's what we'd bet with a flush and/or boat and so we're less likely to get bluff raised, if we intend on folding to a raise. Also just that we get more value if he decides to look us up light, in a spot we think we're likely good.

I think I would call in this situation, but I think it definitely might be a leak.