Floating w/AK vs flop raise

Villain has been fairly passive, not raising draws much. I a) think he either has air on this flop as its a pretty dry flop to be raising or b) he has Tx, not a two pair Tx hand as he's too tight to be calling with T3 or T4 pre.

I hit gin on turn and river has me questioning myself. Do I go with my read on earlier streets?

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
2 players

Stacks:
BTN Hero ($83.15)
BB element64 ($50.30)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 2 players) Hero is BTN :ah: :ks:
Hero raises to $1.50, element64 calls $1

Flop: :4c: :5s: :td: ($3, 2 players)
element64 checks, Hero bets $2, element64 raises to $5.50, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: :kh: ($14, 2 players)
element64 bets $9, Hero calls $9

River: :3d: ($32, 2 players)
element64 goes all-in $34.30, Hero says "ewwwwwwwwwwwww", Hero says "are u turning AT into a bluff?", $34.3 to Hero ($67.15)?

fairly passive doing a ch/raise is business. him leading the turn means he prob has the best hand. have you seen him lead a turn scare card after having bet a flop?

is your read that he c/r's flops sometimes but isn't the type to make a 3 street bluff? i don't get it...

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Originally Posted by Massimo

is your read that he c/r's flops sometimes but isn't the type to make a 3 street bluff? i don't get it...

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So ur saying this is an easy call?

have you seen him bluff 3 streets?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by frosst

have you seen him bluff 3 streets?

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I haven't caught him bluffing yet, but it seems like a spot he wouldn't raise a set and isn't good enough to level me into raising a set because I know the board is too dry to raise a set. Good board to raise air.... Only hands I can see him having that beat us are 67 and KT.

I think you gotta call in that situation.. you called with nothing and hit the turn so now you should be in control.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mr Bigcity

I think you gotta call in that situation.. you called with nothing and hit the turn so now you should be in control.

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I agree. I don't see him betting on the turn with a straight draw.

Stacking off v's a passive player with TPTK who you've never seen bluff but c/r flop and barrels turn and shoves river seems like an awesome way to lose money.

His 2 pair is good.

I agree. This looks like either KK, TT, 55, 44, KT, or 54s. The only other hand that would play that way is a total bluff, and you would need a good read that he is capable of bluffing 3 streets before putting him on a stone cold bluff.

I think a lot of this has to do with what his 3bet range is. I don't know much about 50NLHU but at 6max vs. most regs this is an easy stack off as 1. They are not repping much on that board and 2. what they are repping, they would be 3betting pre (22-55/smaller SC/monsters)

I dont see why we'd have reads and then make up theories counter to those reads to justify our play.

what the fuck? I don't see how we can fold
the only hands that make sense that beat us are KT, 44, 55, TT
hands that make sense that we beat are JJ, QQ, JT-AT, random air that hit the turn like Kx

it depends on whether he'd 3b us or if we've been folding to 3bs
if our fold to 3b is like 60%+ he'd slowplay JJ+ and would avoid 3b AT because we fold A9

Is not being able to make this fold when we're at the top of our range a bad thing? Or maybe I personally get vbet way lighter because I am kind of loose.
fwiw I fold the flop

Do you people even read the reads, or just choose to ignore them so you can play the way you want to regardless of the opponent?

It would be also be pretty sick if he was bluffing with 33 or A2 and got there, but those are possibilities as well. I mean, his range is definitely 2 pair+ and bluffs by the river, so is he bluffing 35% of the time here? That's really the only relevant point.

That said, I don't see how he could ever put you on a hand like TPTK. He might be trying to make you fold Tx or 66-99 with a hand like 65s or QJ. Like frosst said... will he ever bluff 3 streets?

Passive player. Hardly even semi-bluffs. Never seen him bluffing.

So we conclude he's picked this hand to spaz out on and c/r flop, bet turn and shove river with a hand that cant beat TPTK? Thats not reads or ranges, its wishful thinking. Dont get me wrong, its possible, but we've got NO reason to think so.

lol at 'gin' on river

fold the flop

Well there is no missed flush draw he is turning into a bluff. He just called pre so all low PP are in his range and hands like 45, 67 suited etc.

I just think its a pretty standard fold, no?

i just reread my last post, damn i sounded like a rude mofo. i was joking honest :)

You are looking at a straight is my first read or two pair since the King did not scare the fellow!

Ace King are just two cards and only connected with one of them and the the villain goes all in and been playing tight! The $9 turn bet would of put me off.

So a fold was go play but you have a leek here of holding onto your cards to long in this hand.

I'd either fold flop or fold river. Never call river.

If you think you have a great read go with it. Do you possibly put him on a straight draw or 2 pair? I would think you are beat although hard to get away from this hand. If he has been playing passive hard to make the call for that kind of money.