2 brl this RR pot?

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11-03-2008, 09:04 AM
Irisheyes

2 brl this RR pot?

Villain is 28/22/2.5 decent reg. Folds to 3bets 63% of the time. Probably likes to be a little tricksy.

Firstly, bet turn? and secondly the flop is ok right?

$2.5/$5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($920.23)
CO ($502.50)
BTN ($498.50)
Hero ($487.07)
BB ($263.15)

Pre-flop: ($7.50, 5 players) Hero is SB :4c: :ac:
2 folds, BTN raises to $15, Hero raises to $55, 1 fold, BTN calls $40

Flop: :qd: :jc: :5s: ($115, 2 players)
Hero bets $65, BTN calls $65

Turn: :6c: ($245, 2 players)
Hero ($367.07)?
11-03-2008, 09:57 AM
Da GOAT

stacks are just so awful to work with on turn.

i think if we made it 60 pre then 95->125 flop then shove 332->315 it all works out a whole lot better. so id 4x raise pre to set stacks up.

i tho here we should consider c/f'ing and i think alot of the time we can get to see a free card plus arent we less likely to get bluffed off our hand since stacks are so shallow. opp cud think we plan a c/bomb on turn and may check back.
11-03-2008, 10:28 AM
griffey24

I think if someone is folding to a lot of 3bets in general, when they do call I try to c/f a decent number of flops. This kind of flop probably hits his range reasonably hard.

If he's the type to call this board with KQ,AJ,JT etc and then check through the turn, I don't mind checking and hoping to get a free card. A bet could be spew here if he's not folding much of his range once he calls preflop and calls flop.
11-03-2008, 10:56 AM
mcatdog

Heh I kind of like betting $65 again and shoving any river except for a queen. It'd be cool if nutsinho could tell me why I'm awful for thinking this.
11-03-2008, 11:01 AM
zook

I think both decisions are close and I'd rather err on the side of aggression so I'd bet/fold $120 on the turn.
11-03-2008, 11:08 AM
mcatdog

Aren't you priced in if you bet $120?
11-03-2008, 11:21 AM
Da GOAT

we get about 3:1 if we b/c for $120. i think betting is bad and checking is way better.
11-03-2008, 11:38 AM
zook

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Aren't you priced in if you bet $120?

Getting a little less than 3:1 as a 4:1 dog, unless I'm completely missing something. I don't think he's ever shoving worse (except Tc9c).
11-03-2008, 12:03 PM
mcatdog

Or KcTc, plus your ace outs are good at least some of the time if he shoves top pair or something, even though they usually aren't good...

I think your equity is very close to 26% if you get shoved on, maybe off by 1-2%. I don't like to put myself in spots where I have basically breakeven pot odds to call off my stack as an underdog, when I could just bet less on the turn and make the decision easy.
11-03-2008, 12:06 PM
Irisheyes

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Or KcTc, plus your ace outs are good at least some of the time if he shoves top pair or something, even though they usually aren't good...

I think your equity is very close to 26% if you get shoved on, maybe off by 1-2%. I don't like to put myself in spots where I have basically breakeven pot odds to call off my stack as an underdog, when I could just bet less on the turn and make the decision easy.

Yeah this. I don't think we can comfortably b/f ~$120 (which was what I did in the hand btw).

I just can't decide between betting small, checking or shoving.
11-03-2008, 12:08 PM
Irisheyes

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

I think if someone is folding to a lot of 3bets in general, when they do call I try to c/f a decent number of flops. This kind of flop probably hits his range reasonably hard.

I think the fold to 3bet % can be a bit misleading since we are OOP. I really get the impression that this guy is the type who won't want to give in to 3bets a lot when he has position. I mean if he folds to 3bets a lot OOP and calls a decent bit IP than the stat % could still be fairly high right?
11-03-2008, 12:09 PM
IowaSkinsFan

C/r all in to counter floats?

I'm kind of torn because im not sure we can profitably 3 barrel here, but then again our range is essentially all nut hands if we dont. Yeah, I'm gonna change my mind and say $85 on turn shove river.
11-03-2008, 12:10 PM
Irisheyes

Stacks are too small to c/r no?
11-03-2008, 12:37 PM
zook

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Or KcTc, plus your ace outs are good at least some of the time if he shoves top pair or something, even though they usually aren't good...

I think your equity is very close to 26% if you get shoved on, maybe off by 1-2%. I don't like to put myself in spots where I have basically breakeven pot odds to call off my stack as an underdog, when I could just bet less on the turn and make the decision easy.

Yeah, I agree. I just plugged a range into pokerstove and got ~24%. Strangely, just taking out KcTc and Tc9c takes it down to 18.6%. Weird.

But I still think the decision is close. He only has to fold ~30% of his range to make betting $120 profitable, which I don't think is unreasonable at all.
11-03-2008, 01:50 PM
thizzSantaCruz

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

I think if someone is folding to a lot of 3bets in general, when they do call I try to c/f a decent number of flops. This kind of flop probably hits his range reasonably hard.

If he's the type to call this board with KQ,AJ,JT etc and then check through the turn, I don't mind checking and hoping to get a free card. A bet could be spew here if he's not folding much of his range once he calls preflop and calls flop.

Folding to 63% of 3 bets is folding to a lot? I would think that would be a pretty loose number for 6 max.
11-03-2008, 01:59 PM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz

Quote:

Originally Posted by griffey24

I think if someone is folding to a lot of 3bets in general, when they do call I try to c/f a decent number of flops. This kind of flop probably hits his range reasonably hard.

If he's the type to call this board with KQ,AJ,JT etc and then check through the turn, I don't mind checking and hoping to get a free card. A bet could be spew here if he's not folding much of his range once he calls preflop and calls flop.

Folding to 63% of 3 bets is folding to a lot? I would think that would be a pretty loose number for 6 max.

no 63 isn't too high. Once you start getting into the 70's though, it's a high enough number that I feel like you should tread carefully when you actually get called. Some guys fold like only 40% and they just have such a wide range.

Irish could be right though, in saying that their 3-bet calling IP vs OOP could be pretty different and not representative by that one stat alone.
11-03-2008, 08:25 PM
nutsinho

i would never consider checkfolding or bet-folding. in my games i would expect to get called by a wide range on the flop containing many floats, so i'd probably check/jam (or check/gayraise/call). this line will get me to the river for free when my opponents are planning a delayed steal , and win the monies if they immediately bet the turn. i also approve of mcat's 65/65/shove line because you will so rarely get raised on the turn, but to a thinking opp i feel like this kind of looks like what it is and you will get called very light.