5/10 -someone is getting value towned, I'm just not sure who

-not really sure how to describe villain, he runs 21/13/2.5 and he does some weird plays sometimes
-we've had a couple hands so far today, one where I donk lead 3 steets with 77 on a 68TJQ board and he called down T9 so he may think I'm bluffy potentially
-is this river too thin?


$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($281.00)
UTG+1 ($1839.50)
CO ($1179.00)
Hero (BTN) ($1415.50)
SB ($1545.50)
BB ($955.00)

Pre-flop: ($15, 6 players) Hero is BTN :5c: :7c:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $40, 1 fold, Hero calls $40, SB calls $35, 1 fold

Flop: :4s: :7d: :3s: ($130, 3 players)
SB bets $90, UTG+1 calls $90, Hero calls $90

Turn: :7s: ($400, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $285, SB folds, UTG+1 calls $285

River: :jd: ($970, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $425

Wow that is a very confusing hand I would assume you are good a 4x raise UTG+1 you have to give him credit for either a medium pair or over cards.

I think i bet the river harder

def not too thin but I think you have to fold to a c/shove

id bet vs a TAG.. important to note though vs this kind of passive villains I would not bet here, my cutoff would prolly be like A7 vs this guy

i mean i see him having a flush sooo often here, or shit like 7x better kicker.. plus he's not calling river bets with high pairs, cuz what can u have?

if i do bet though, i make it like 1/3-1/2pot

If you do have him beat and he has some sort of big pair w/ a spade type hand, he is probably good enough to know you aren't value betting worse there so his hand is pretty much a bluff catcher.

From the hand I really don't feel like he has you beat, and your range is so strong here if you bet the river that, that I don't think he is ever going to C/Shove as a bluff....

I'd just bet an amount that makes him think there are more bluffs in your range, I guess it's feasible that you could have 55/66 and just be trying to get him off a big pair.....

So I'd bet closer to pot, but a lot of it depends on more factors than you can give here. Some people will have a higher fold frequency to smaller bets because the opponent expects them to call....whereas some people have a higher fold to larger bets, simply because subconsciously they think "bigger bet, bigger hand."

Good post toad. I honestly don't have anywhere near enough reads on this particular villain to know that they'd perceive a bigger bet as being more polarized and be more likely to hero call.

When in doubt I think a decent default is to just value town with a more moderate bet.

If I got c/shoved here though I'm definitely folding. Not sure what my calling range should be though. Probably most flushes, as I don't think he ever has a boat here given flop/turn action unless he rivered J's full.

This situation on the flop is so awesome for us. I'd probably call the flop here with any sort of pair or any gut shot.

Hmmm well I surely think he has AA-TT like 90% of the time. Any hand that doesn't beat those I'd turn into a bluff for sure.