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Villain is 69/6/2.0 over 32 hands. He has made a few very large bets to win pots with out showdown. I s the over pair and marginal FD enough to call a player such as this? Would a better play be to raise the flop instead of calling?
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
5 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $34.78
Hero: $48.34
Button: $27.69
SB: $8.50
BB: $53.77
Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/jh.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/jc.png
UTG raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.6, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG folds.
Flop: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/6h.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/2c.png http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/5h.png ($6.05, 2 players)
BB bets $6.05, Hero calls.
Turn: http://www.neildewhurst.com/wp-conte...c-cards/4h.png ($18.15, 2 players)
BB bets $18.15, Hero ????
what is his range on each street?
what is our equity against his range?
what action maximizes expectation?
by the turn his range is 22+,AhKh,AhQh and some air
our equity is 50% if he makes that bet with 77 on the turn
but does he bet 77/88 or try to check it down?
how much air does he have in his range?
your equity was better on the flop, but I don't know if a raise makes worse call you may well fold some hands like 88
the good news is that you're only crushed by flushes and bigger pairs with a flush draw
stacking off is not a big mistake because of the size of the pot
his range is way tighter than 22+/AK/AQ. sample is small, but 6% pfr doesnt open a lot UTG. If you want to raise anywhere, do it on flop, this person will get in with 99/TT
My thinking at the time was to call the flop and re-evaluate the turn. This was based on his previous large bets on similar boards. I was thinking that I would raise/shove any non-heart turn based on "any two suited" being a large portion of his range. Obviously a heart came on the turn making the decision much less cut and dry. What would be the flaws in this line of thought?
If you call the flop, it shouldn't be the re-eval the turn. There are reasons for a call, and I don't think that's one of them