Fold QQ preflop?

Kind of a meh spot. I don't have the hand history.

6max full stacks no notes etc.

I have QQ on the button.

UTG+1 (only played 10 hands with him) opens for 3bb. I call because the BB is a squeezy tagfish.

However, it's SB running at 15/13 who opts to squeeze to 14bb. Initial raiser folds. I'd like to know what you guys think the best line is here? I like to 4-bet with my premiums because I like to balance that I probably back-raise here a fair amount (probably too much). SB does not have this read on me though I'm sure. So anyway, I 4-bet to 28bb.

Normally I'm obviously doing this to call a shove if that occurs. However, this guy tanks for a little while like he's making some big decision, then he raises to like 48bb.

Did he just tell me he has AA and it's reasonable to fold here?

in my games i give that type of betsizing even less credit than normal sizing cause its like theyre trying too hard to look strong, but im sure its different in the 100nl games. if your instincts tell you to go back on your original plan in a hand, they are probably right. i will demonstrate:

DeanoSupremo: posts small blind $25
nutsinho: posts big blind $50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nutsinho [2s Ad]
stglobe: folds
tbthanx: folds
DeanoSupremo: raises $100 to $150
nutsinho: raises $350 to $500
DeanoSupremo: raises $4024 to $4524 and is all-in
nutsinho: calls $4024
*** FLOP *** [7s Qh 9s]
*** TURN *** [7s Qh 9s] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [7s Qh 9s 8d] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DeanoSupremo: shows [Qd Kd] (a pair of Queens)
nutsinho: shows [2s Ad] (a pair of Aces)
nutsinho collected $9046 from pot
DeanoSupremo said, "......"
nutsinho said, "yup"

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

Did he just tell me he has AA and it's reasonable to fold here?

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Yeah I think so. No 3bet or squeeze stats on him?

nh nutseenyo

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

DeanoSupremo said, "......"
nutsinho said, "yup"

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fucking awesome

Quote:

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Originally Posted by zook

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

Did he just tell me he has AA and it's reasonable to fold here?

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Yeah I think so. No 3bet or squeeze stats on him?

nh nutseenyo

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I know a little bit about the mentality of a 15/13 guy at this level (I used to be one), and I can tell you that this is AA/KK about 99% of the time. I hope you folded but I don't hate you if you shoved either, I mean we have QQ! But yeah, fold.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Galapogos

Did he just tell me he has AA and it's reasonable to fold here?

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My initial reaction was yes.

But, this is a dick-swinging contest and it doesn't look like you have anything.


Pick a level?

I would say 50% he got something big , really big. could be KK, AA AK.

if you see very conservative players raise and reraise or call reraise. probably u should fodl.

Having played 100NL a lot (and this may just be way off and silly) but I find most fish like to just shove a hand like AK, and whenever they 5bet they seem to have AA/KK and like NEVER do it as a bluff.
But that is just what I've noticed on ipoker.

meh for 100bbs i dont hate getting it in, but folding may be correct here vs his likely range.

just dont do what i did last night and get 175bbs in pre vs a 16/14 UTG raiser and a MP shorty. bad decision.

I make the EV for a shove vs a fold against the follwing ranges:

AA,KK: -36 BB
AA,KK,AKs: -18 BB
AA,KK,AKs,AKo: +8 BB

So you have to be pretty sure that he would make this play with AKo to justify shoving.