2pair raised on turn

Villain was playing 21/8/1.6 over 151hands. We had some standard preflop calls, flop folds/calls turn check/folds and stuff. Nothing out of the ordinary.

What do you do on the turn and why? Of course we have a pretty bad 2pair, but it's still 2pair on an A high board at microstakes. Some draws came there, but there are still a lot of draws out there as well.
Villains range is at least all 2pairs,TJ, 65s. Villain is likely capable of calling all FD's on the flop instead of raising.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer Game#23180619238

Hero ($32.10)
BB ($19.90)
UTG ($27.85)
CO ($16)
BTN ($26.50)

Dealt to Hero 8:diamond:9:diamond:
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.90, call,

FLOP ($1.80) A:heart:7:club:8:club:
Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25,

TURN ($4.30) A:heart:7:club:8:club:9:spade:
Hero bets $3.50, BB raises to $8

I'd call because it's a small raise and we can hope to stack him on a 8 or 9 river (although we could also get stacked by a better boat)
or we could check the river if we don't improve and see what he does

he could certainly have a hand like :Qc::Jc: and check the river behind when he misses

if he bets the river we're most certainly behind, but I'd call a tiny river bet because I have seen those tiny river bets be last attempts at a bluff with a draw or a small value bet by Ax
anyway, we're 10% to improve and we're almost guaranteed to be ahead at least 20% of the time

hands that kind of make sense to play this way that we're ahead of:
78, QcJc, 97, AT
But I don't know, I find that I put a lot of money in and fold on a later street a lot lately, maybe making these kinds of calls when I think I'm behind but the raise is so small is part of the reason why

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Originally Posted by iopq

I'd call because it's a small raise and we can hope to stack him on a 8 or 9 river (although we could also get stacked by a better boat)
or we could check the river if we don't improve and see what he does

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so 4 outs, plus potentially tainted outs? i would fold here. im not used to 5nl but i dont see him calling many flops and then raising the turn with draws. lets look at his value range : A7, A8, A9, 77-99, TJ, 65. i dont think he is bluffing very often here, but if he were to bluff i think its like all combo draws. this is never a pure bluff.

79/78 is also in his value range
while our outs are tainted, it's mostly against nut hands like top two and sets

I actually saw a TAG turn his JJ into a bluff on a K high turn
I can even see someone raising AK here if he thought that you were going to fire another barrel without improving

I guess I can't fold two pair getting 4-to-1 especially since it's not even the bottom two on a super-drawy board
sure, he's raising mostly combo draws and hands that crush us, but we ONLY need 20% equity to call
that means we have to put him squarely on nut hands or think he's going to outplay us on the river due to position

I don't really like calling, because it leaves us in a desperate spot on a lot of rivers. I also doubt we have the right odds to call for fit and fold the river, assuming some are tainted and stuff.

I shoved the hand and villain tanked and folded. I have no idea what he had. I shoved because these people sometimes show up with AK/AQ at these stakes and he wasn't full stacked. But I doubt it's a good shove from my side.

I agree with your play at 25 NL. A lot of players will call you with AK/AQ here and you have to charge for the draws.

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Originally Posted by minSim

I don't really like calling, because it leaves us in a desperate spot on a lot of rivers. I also doubt we have the right odds to call for fit and fold the river, assuming some are tainted and stuff.

I shoved the hand and villain tanked and folded. I have no idea what he had. I shoved because these people sometimes show up with AK/AQ at these stakes and he wasn't full stacked. But I doubt it's a good shove from my side.

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what? you don't like playing the river because your outs might be tainted?

Let's consider the scenarios:
1. your outs are tainted because villain has better two pair or a set
You either shove or you wait until the river, hit your card and shove

you lose the same amount whether you shove the turn or the river
but the times you don't hit the river and fold to villain's shove you save money

so when you're behind calling is superior to shoving

2. you're behind, but your outs are clean
by shoving on the turn you're putting in money while behind
if you wait until you fill up on the river, the call is EV+ because of the implied odds (and he's calling you with a straight there all day)

3. you're ahead
in this case it depends on whether villain will call a shove when behind (which he might)
in this case shoving is better
but only marginally because you might fold out worse hands

Iopq, imo you're oversimplifying riverplay.

If we're calling and c/f-ing every river we don't hit;
- we have 4 outs.
- assuming we play for stacks when we hit, there's enough implied odds
- assuming our outs are tainted our implied odds drop
- assuming villain sometimes has something besides a straight and won't stack of once we hit let's our implied odds drop
- assuming villains sometimes has something besides a straight and will sometimes shove us off our hand on rivers we don't hit, let's our implied odds drop.

Resulting in that, imo, we can't profitably call the turn and fit&fold the river.

we're not playing c/f every river, we c/c small bets and fold to shoves

if the villain also shoves the river when he doesn't improve, when we improve we take his stack then

but that's almost never going to happen against a tight villain, he's not shoving with a busted draw almost ever

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

I'd call because it's a small raise and we can hope to stack him on a 8 or 9 river (although we could also get stacked by a better boat)
or we could check the river if we don't improve and see what he does

he could certainly have a hand like :Qc::Jc: and check the river behind when he misses

if he bets the river we're most certainly behind, but I'd call a tiny river bet because I have seen those tiny river bets be last attempts at a bluff with a draw or a small value bet by Ax
anyway, we're 10% to improve and we're almost guaranteed to be ahead at least 20% of the time

hands that kind of make sense to play this way that we're ahead of:
78, QcJc, 97, AT
But I don't know, I find that I put a lot of money in and fold on a later street a lot lately, maybe making these kinds of calls when I think I'm behind but the raise is so small is part of the reason why

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It's probably a fold once you realize defending a call, fold/call small is basically saying "I wanna be *absolutely sure* I'm beat before folding."

What would you do with A2 here? Your hand has pretty much the same value (other than the small redraw value of your two pair, 8% of the time). You beat a bluff/strong draw and that's about it.

This is a pretty easy fold here. There are so many hands that can have you beat. The only hand that mostly makes sense here that would be raising with worse is 9T or something like that. Possibly a combo with clubs, but clubs might raise the flop sometimes even.

considering we need 20% equity to call, 8% is a big deal because if A2 is good 15% here, it's a fold, the 8% redraws would make 78 a call

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Originally Posted by will641

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

I'd call because it's a small raise and we can hope to stack him on a 8 or 9 river (although we could also get stacked by a better boat)
or we could check the river if we don't improve and see what he does

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so 4 outs, plus potentially tainted outs? i would fold here. im not used to 5nl but i dont see him calling many flops and then raising the turn with draws. lets look at his value range : A7, A8, A9, 77-99, TJ, 65. i dont think he is bluffing very often here, but if he were to bluff i think its like all combo draws. this is never a pure bluff.

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Gotta go with this.

Gl at the tables iopq, tried to chat with you at one.

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Originally Posted by kmind

Gl at the tables iopq, tried to chat with you at one.

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people keep telling me this but it's hard to chat while 9tabling :O

Searched your sn and saw only 4 tables up!! :( :(

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Originally Posted by kmind

Searched your sn and saw only 4 tables up!! :( :(

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yeah, I'm learning how to play without a hud, with real reads