50NL: QQ as overpair OOP

Villain is like 33/3 over 40 hands or so...

$0.25/$0.5 Pot Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($52.75)
UTG+1 Sureboy ($165.95)
MP1 kareem9 ($55.00)
MP2 Zyrano86 ($67.25)
CO chiquadrat ($10.00)
BTN dXb.se ($123.60)
SB BraddockG ($49.50)
BB esposito31 ($30.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is UTG :qc: :qs:
Hero raises to $1.75, Sureboy calls $1.75, kareem9 calls $1.75, 2 folds, dXb.se calls $1.75, 1 fold, esposito31 calls $1.25

Flop: :3c: :2s: :4s: ($9, 5 players)
esposito31 checks, Hero bets $6.50, 2 folds, dXb.se calls $6.50, esposito31 folds

Turn: :9s: ($22, 2 players)
Hero bets $14, dXb.se calls $14

River: :7c: ($50, 2 players)
Hero ($30.50)?

what do people think of c/c the turn instead? if the turn checks through he could call the river with something stupid like 88

is his range mostly draws or mostly pps? only the straight draws didn't complete on the turn like 5x or Ax

he's not calling us down ace high unless he hit the 9 or something and 55 probably folds the river
so considering that, who likes letting the turn check through (taking the risk he has the single As or Ks) and firing the $14 on the river? if he bets for us on the turn I guess I'll take one off and c/f the river unless I improve since I do have the flush draw

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Originally Posted by iopq

what do people think of c/c the turn instead? if the turn checks through he could call the river with something stupid like 88

is his range mostly draws or mostly pps? only the straight draws didn't complete on the turn like 5x or Ax

he's not calling us down ace high unless he hit the 9 or something and 55 probably folds the river
so considering that, who likes letting the turn check through (taking the risk he has the single As or Ks) and firing the $14 on the river? if he bets for us on the turn I guess I'll take one off and c/f the river unless I improve since I do have the flush draw

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I think I prefer to bet the turn as he did and maybe check/call the river instead, but probably just bet out. I'm not sure I understand why check the turn to let him possible catch a card on the river (he could check behind) when you are likely to get the same amount of value. 33/3 is usually going to be a passive player, likely to check w/weakish holdings but would call a bet instead. It would seem to me that there's much more in his range that calls a bet or checks behind than would bet (that we beat).

I would bet more on the flop

I really hate c/call turn. b/f turn is better, imo.

I would also shove river.

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I would bet more on the flop

I really hate c/call turn. b/f turn is better, imo.

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Yeah I shoulda potted flop given the drawy board + a few donks seeing the flop.

b/f turn seems very standard vs a station who'll call a wide range.

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Originally Posted by d0zer

Quote:

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

I would bet more on the flop

I really hate c/call turn. b/f turn is better, imo.

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Yeah I shoulda potted flop given the drawy board + a few donks seeing the flop.

b/f turn seems very standard vs a station who'll call a wide range.

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I agree with flop turn.

I wouldn't shove the river, tho, rilla, but maybe I should. Let's see, the pot's $50 on the river, and Hero has $25 left...and if we pot the flop, Hero has like $20 left and $60 pot...yeah, villain's loose enough the river shove is (not so) thin value.

I see a lot of busted draws turned into bluffs at 50nl. Would it be better to check/call? Just curious what y'all think.

I'm pretty sure, though not 100% certain right now, that shoving is better than a check/call. This type of an opponent seems to rarely bluff the river in this spot, or bet one of the tons of medium/weak-strength one-pairs, but he'll typically be more likely to call with a lot of them. This is better than a check/call situation where we're almost always getting our last $30 in behind.

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Originally Posted by spoonitnow

I'm pretty sure, though not 100% certain right now, that shoving is better than a check/call. This type of an opponent seems to rarely bluff the river in this spot, or bet one of the tons of medium/weak-strength one-pairs, but he'll typically be more likely to call with a lot of them. This is better than a check/call situation where we're almost always getting our last $30 in behind.

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Yeah, if you bet more on the flop, I (now) think you gotta shove the river, which is why rilla says to bet more on the flop, I guess.

Villian is 33% which =
(taken from a 2+2 Thread by POKEY)
So you know that your opponent who just limped has a VPIP of 30%; what does 30% really MEAN? We know it's loose, but are you really aware of what "30% of all hands dealt" actually looks like? Here are some probabilities of getting a hand in a particular preflop range:

Super-premiums: AA, KK, QQ, AK. Total probability: 2.6%.
Premiums: AA-TT, AK, AQ, KQ. Total probability: 5.9%.
Any pocket pair: AA-22. Total probability: 5.9%.
Any two broadway: Two cards, both T+, including pairs. Total probability: 14.3%.
Any suited ace: A2s-AKs. Total probability: 3.6%.
Unsuited ace: A2o-AKo. Total probability: 10.9%.
"Maximum suited connectors": JTs-54s. Total probability: 2.1%.
Any ace: A2o+, A2s+, AA. Total probability: 14.9%.
Any two suited: literally. Total probability: 23.5%.
Any two connectors: 32s-AKs, 32o-AKo. Total probability: 14.5%.

so 30% is alot of different cards. Since Villian is on the BTN and there was a bunch of callers,we should be able to open his range up quite a bit.
certainly any 2 suited, any suited connectors, any connectors.

Poker stove says..80% equity here.

I would go with my reads here :
the board is coordinated, the flush has completed, a straight is good, Villain has not gone away, and think my hand was no good here.