5/10: bet bet shove

This hand makes my head spin. Villain is a good TAG regular at 23/21/3.

I am BB. My range after calling the turn vs this guy on this board is 66/77/JJ/QQ/AhKh/AhQh, virtually never anything else. There's only 4 combos of 66/77 and 14 combos of the rest, so if I fold everything but 66/77 then I'm folding 78% of the time, but I only need to fold more than 61% for a bluff to show profit.

What's the correct action with JJ/QQ here? Flip a coin? Does that make him shove AA/KK for value?

Button ($979)
SB ($410)
BB ($1000)
UTG ($2305)
MP ($2432.50)
CO ($1972)

Preflop:
UTG raises to $35, 4 folds, BB calls $25

Flop: ($75) 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $55, BB calls $55

Turn: ($185) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $150, BB calls $150

River: ($485) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)

BB checks, UTG bets $2065 (All-In), BB?

840 for me to call...

Meh, crappy spot given that we're at the top of our range and he knows his range is perceived to be strong.

I probably just fold this river pretty often though, he's overshoving and he knows the draws missed. Depends what level he's on I guess. I think I fold.

I would think he's always shoving TT+ for value here as it's not that thin.

Although, Id assume your perceived range is a lot weaker than the hands u mentioned (im sure he could put u on 88-JJ as well and some other draws), so I'm def calling JJ/QQ here for sure just because I can see him value towning himself a bit.

If your perceived range is rly what you mentioned and he knows that somehow, then yeah fold, but i doubt it unless you're a nit or something.

if i had AA here i think i'd fold.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

If your perceived range is rly what you mentioned and he knows that somehow, then yeah fold, but i doubt it unless you're a nit or something.

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We only have 200 hands together so I'm pretty much unknown. But OOP against a very good player, yeah, I'm a nit. I also generally don't play passive poker with marginal holdings (especially OOP). Good to know that my perceived range is wider by def.

I had QQ and was planning to SNAP call the river, but I didn't expect this.

dont try to work backwords in order to solve what you should do. the vast majority of opponents arent going to be going for ambitious mathematical bluffs in these spots

ohhh i thought he bet pot on the river... my bad

For what it's worth, if I did flat JJ/QQ in this spot, I'd probably donk lead three streets here and expect lots of his midpairs to call down.

id fold QQ/JJ for sure.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

dont try to work backwords in order to solve what you should do.

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Really? I think like this all the time. What am I going to do now that I know my whole thought process is baseless? :(

The more I think about this hand the more I think it's a call. The overbet just seems to make a lot more sense as a bluff than as a value bet.

I think you can justify the reasoning of opp overbetting here as a bluff, but he also raised UTG, bet the flop and bet the turn.