Ok spot for 3 barrel 50nl?

Vilian is 18/13/2 tag

He has a very high 3bet % in this spot about 10%.
He calls opens 12% has a low ftcb% of 25% and his turn agg is higher than his flop aggression.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($86.80)
Hero (SB) ($51.50)
BB ($54.45)
UTG ($52.50)
MP ($50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2d.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/ad.gif
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1

Flop: ($3) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/jc.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/jd.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/kd.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BB calls $2

Turn: ($7) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/4h.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $4, BB calls $4

River: ($15) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/kc.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $9.50

given the description of the villain and the board counterfeiting a decent part of his range i think its fine.

is your river bet a value bet? i dont get it at all????

It almost looks like you're betting for value here which would be bad. As a bluff I think you only fold out 44-TT.

I like a check/fold river. You probably win a number of chk chk rivers and I think his calling hands way outnumber his folding hands in BvB.

I also bet turn bigger.

**Damn Nuts just stole my thunder by 0 minutes.**

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

is your river bet a value bet? i dont get it at all????

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Yeah good point.

It's just to me it seems like he's a floater who'll bet in pos when checked to wth a wide range but even so I don't think I can call profitably with A high long term if he makes a 2/3- pot bet on this river.

But I think he'll fold more than 40% of the time if I bet
because I know he doesn't have JJ/KK in his range or alot of dominated hands.

(And he might also fold some chops and once in a blue moon maybe a jack because it looks like I have to have a king here alot, my river agg is quite low) so he'll know there's not alot of bluffs in my range.)

If you want to fold out a jack you need to bet bigger on the river, IMO.
At least a pot sized bet.

Also, how much of the 40% of the time he folds are you already ahead anyway?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Silly String

Also, how much of the 40% of the time he folds are you already ahead anyway?

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I'm probably ahead quite a bit but as I said if I check and he bets strong I don't think I can profitably call.
I think the bet would be ev vs this opponent but his betting range would be so tricky to call against that checking is - ev in my mind.

If the opponent was passive I would just let it go check check and split with an Ace and scoop the pot from his lower pp missed draws etc.

If villain is going to float me 2 streets w/ TT then turn his hand into bluff on the river after I 2 barrel and this flop hit me square in the face then he can have it and I'll make it back later.

I think you're giving you villain too much credit for floating and thinking, but it is your read and you would know far better than I.

I think it is hard to figure out if this is a bluff, block bet or quasi value bet. Interesting to say the least.

I've always thought if you're not sure if you're betting for value or as a bluff its probably bad.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bjsaust

I've always thought if you're not sure if you're betting for value or as a bluff its probably bad.

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In my mind I'm sure I'm not betting for value because I don't think he'll ever call with worse.

So it's a bluff even though I may have the best hand,
that makes sense doesn't it? :)

Ummm... I don't really like this. He's never folding a J or a K obviously, and you beat any other hand he would have had. Sooo I feel like c/f and c/c are close, but I see no value at all in betting here.

Cool, thanks for the input guys, I do appreciate it even though I usually tend to disagree :)

I think there are quite a few spots oop against aggressive players where 'bluff lest you be bluffed' is more profitable then check calling/folding. Putting them in hard spots is better than vice versa.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by noble007

Cool, thanks for the input guys, I do appreciate it even though I usually tend to disagree :)

I think there are quite a few spots oop against aggressive players where 'bluff lest you be bluffed' is more profitable then check calling/folding. Putting them in hard spots is better than vice versa.

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I would completely agree... if you had 9Tdd here. But you have A high... so I don't get it.

What worse hands are calling you? (none)
What better hands are folding than A high on this particular board? (none. maaaybe QQ. Maaaaybe Jx if you bet more on the river, but as played, not even Jx)

We bluff when better hands fold. But in this spot, no better hands fold... so what "hard spot" are you putting villain in? You're letting him fold all his no-showdown value hands, instead of making him decide whether he wants to bluff them or not by checking.

I just don't think "bluff lest you be bluffed' makes sense here, on this particular board, with this particular hand.

If you bluff on this board you only get called by better, but if you c/c you may pick off someone bluffing with worse.

betting: he almost never has ace high so you dont fold chops, you never get called by worse, you always get called by better, and occasionally get raised by worse and cannot call...this bet is clearly -ev

checking: is inherently 0ev. you then get to pick the best option between c/f (0ev) and c/c if he bets


its okay that you commonly disagree with the advice given here but in this case you should realize that your argument for betting is completely wrong

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

its okay that you commonly disagree with the advice given here but in this case you should realize that your argument for betting is completely wrong

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I do realise that if yourself,griffey and others of course think my argument for betting in this spot is completely wrong that there is 99% likelihood that yes I'm wrong :)

But that doesn't mean I won't take one more stab at justifying it before waving the white flag!

I thought looking at this floaters range I'm ahead somewhere between 35%-45%

I bet 9.5 into 15 and so he has to fold 38%.
So I figured betting was fairly close to 0ev.

If I check and this aggressive floater bets near pot I have to decide if he's bluffing more than 35% of the time to break even (actually more than 40% of the time because the couple of times he has an ace and we split.)

I felt check folding was the worst option vs this range because even though the move itself appears to be 0ev floating becomes a very profitable overall strategy for villian and this action will also make him more likely to float me in future

I felt check calling wasn't great either because if he's bluffing less than 33% then I'm getting value towned & this action will make him more likely to float with draws in future as he expects to get good implied odds/value from a wide range.

Either way I felt checking was fairly close to 0ev too & it encouraged him to float more.

But by betting in these spots I feel like I thwart his strategy of floating because he doesn't think he will get opportunity to steal alot vs me on later streets or have good implied odds for draws if I'm giving him drawing odds of 1.4-1 over the course of the hand and setting the price for showdown.

I feel betting here will encourage him to instead give up his air to my c-bets more & if he does catch me bluffing rather than floating to steal he's more likely to call down with marginal hands on later streets against me in similiar spots which is great because I'm usually value betting there.

I do feel like erring on the side of aggression by block bluffing in marginal spots is a good counter strategy against floaters.

But I do see now, that checking with A2 was probably better because of the few times he will check behind and that with something like 9T as griffey said my argument may have had slightly more merit.

Ok so I think I see what your reasoning for the bet is. You're essentially betting to avoid the scenario of c/f the best hand, when he floated you and now bluffs. So you're comparing the case where you bet vs his air and win the $15 (never called by air), vs the times where you check/fold to his air and lose the $15. Though I think nutsinho's point about him potentially raising your bet with air, and you b/f and losing $24.50 pot is also relevant.

I think from this post, and your other JJ post, it just seems that you're taking lines that put pressure on your opponent (which is a good thing). But that your overlying reasoning for applying this pressure is not that its the MOST EV play, but rather a play that you consider to still be +EV while allowing you to make the least number of difficult decisions.

Put yourself into a few difficult spots, make some tough calls and you'll get better for it!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by noble007

If I check and this aggressive floater bets near pot

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I don't get why people always think this is such a bad thing

check/soulread is inherently better for the reasons mentioned above

You're betting to take the "easy way out" but it's just not the correct play. Pick c/c or c/f then make a note and you'll make a better soulread next time around.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

I think from this post, and your other JJ post, it just seems that you're taking lines that put pressure on your opponent (which is a good thing). But that your overlying reasoning for applying this pressure is not that its the MOST EV play, but rather a play that you consider to still be +EV while allowing you to make the least number of difficult decisions.

Put yourself into a few difficult spots, make some tough calls and you'll get better for it!

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Thanks for taking the time to give your input guys, you have some good points and that quote pretty much sums up my overlying reason for alot of the plays of I make even though I didn't always realise that's what I was doing.

The only reason I can come up with to bet in a spot like this where you're not getting called by worse and better hands don't fold is if it's HU when I'm pretty sure I have the best hand, and I want to keep applying pressure and not show him my hand. And then only when I think this makes sense against the opponent.

For this particular hand, I'll take the easy route and just agree with the guys who made a million last year.

why do you bet like a puss

also, check/? is way better than betting, obviously