flush on paired board 100nl

This probably isnt a tough one to answer.

Opp is about 35/24 over a fair amount of hands. his AF is about 40% but no alarming aggression on any particular street. Opp isnt a good player.

In hindsight im thinking that simply leading river is way better than c/r'ing but Id like to hear opinions. My c/r size is also too big but i added on some $ since i figure he is a bit of a stationy bad player.

On river is this an easy fold or call?

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG elkam ($123.60)
UTG+1 BaxterRS ($165.70)
CO Barney_Gamble5 ($100.00)
BTN polarni ($100.00)
SB Hero ($104.40)
BB Gsus4 ($125.05)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is SB :td: :qd:
elkam calls $1, 3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, elkam calls $3

Flop: :8d: :kc: :kd: ($9, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, elkam calls $6

Turn: :4c: ($21, 2 players)
Hero checks, elkam checks

River: :3d: ($21, 2 players)
Hero checks, elkam bets $12, Hero raises to $42, elkam raises to $72, $30 to Hero ($52.40)?

Based on pot odds I think you have to call if you think he'll slow play/shove trips Ks here evar. I don't think most villains will wake up on a flushy river w/ trip K's though.
Couple things come to mind here even though I think we're beat:
*Be sticky in big pots
*You only have to be right 1 of 4.5 times.

I would prefer b/c or b/f depending upon his raise size. I think your CR line on the river of a paired board is questionable because you invite this uncomfortable situation.

Finally, given his line(before river) and the likelyhood of a river bluff being the only additional money villain will put in I think c/c might even be in order.

you cant really fold now getting 4.5:1. I bet river for value here almost always, and i don't really like a c/r because i doubt hes calling you w/ a J/T high flush. He could think trip K's is good if he's that bad, but idk how many kings he's opening limping with those stats. I also bet turn here because he's going to be peeling a decent amount of flops on a board like this.

sure we are getting 4.5:1 odds, i still have to be right in that they are good odds though. Pretty much nobody will raise a cr with a K here like ever.

Easy call! As far as I understood, you can only be defeated by a pocket KK, or a by flush Ace high, since King of spades is already on the board. -- I´d doubt a pocket KK by Elkam, or he´d be more agressive - nevertheless, I´d be afraid he´d be carying an Ace of spades, and here carefully playing ´coz afraid of a possible KK on your hand. But it´s most likely you have the best hand...

Let´s know the result.
:D

Any single king hand would have to bet turn I think... his river line is so strong, but yeah if he can show up here with just a king or lower flush (any worse hand, even bluff) 1 in 5 times it should be a call.

if you feel noone raises a c/r with a worse hand ever, then it's a fold ;) i'm also leaning on this thought considering the action...

I feel that a raise to $32 on the river is way better due to stack sizes.
If he bet/3bet-shove river, then out pot odds would be: 3-1 and we can fold. Mainly because he didn't bet the turn, which he would a fair amount with a K.
As played, getting 4.5-1 odds vs a 38/25 player, I call here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CasalRoyal

Easy call! As far as I understood, you can only be defeated by a pocket KK, or a by flush Ace high, since King of spades is already on the board.

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wat? we only have like the eleventeenth nuts here, plenty of hands are beating us.

[ ] spades

lol brazilaments, and I prefer just betting the river strongly myself. you have to call as played.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bode

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CasalRoyal

Easy call! As far as I understood, you can only be defeated by a pocket KK, or a by flush Ace high, since King of spades is already on the board.

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wat? we only have like the eleventeenth nuts here, plenty of hands are beating us.

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Yep! I´m ashamed! Sorry for that! And thanx!