Question about Non-Showdown Winnings

Any clue on what would cause my non-showdown winnings to be -3BB/100 but my showdown stats are aggro? W$WSF is 43%, WTSD 25%, & W$@SD 51% I would think by bringing my W$WSF up I would win more in non-showdown pots, but it seems to be trending the other direction.
I know this is vague, but I'm looking for starting points. My first couple ideas are:
1) I might be spewing with little equity and therefore having to fold to opponents aggression after building a big pot
2) I might be going to showdown too often with the best hand or not value betting enough
3) My small pot game is good, but my med pot game is bad. I might be giving up too often after cbetting or 2 barreling & building a medium sized pot

Any ideas to help me increase my non-showdown winnings?

Is it maybe because your non showdown winnings includes the money you lose folding in the blinds?

If you filter the hands to show where you vpip but there was no showdown I think you'll be in profit.

This is a really complicated question with no easy answer.

1) You're probably ignoring the blinds. At 6max you'd be around -25bb/100 from paying blinds, at FR it's about -17bb/100.

2) When I start raising too many hands "as steals" mine plummets. I think it's because I start cbetting more hands with little to know equity. I didn't try super hard, but going through the HEM articles there was no indication anything was wrong with my game statistically.

It sounds like you are running pretty hot to be winning 51%@SD that's really high. Your W$WSF isn't necessarily that high, but one thing that could be happening is you are trying to win too many pots, putting too much money in and sacrificing equity. Your W$WSF could potentially be like 70% or maybe even higher if you actually tried to win EVERY pot but you would be a HUGE loser. I'd probly try to focus on not going after pots where you have little to no equity, give a few more up and you will in return get much more credit in the future.

51% doesn't necessarily mean you're running hot. Much higher than that I would agree but from reading some hem articles I think 51 is doable long term. From your list I think your solution is #1 and #3. I find that whenever I'm loosing without showdown #1 is usually the culprit. Running bad will also affect this cause you'll be getting played back at more when people out flop you.

2 confuses me slightly, is it possible to showdown the best hand too often? Is 25%WtSD generally considered as a low WtSD? I would think (i am just guessing mind you) that much more than that and your potsize manipulation would have to be excellent to keep up a good winrate over a decent sample?

My stats for my PT3 DB:

Vpip: 22
PFR: 18
Wtsd: 26
WWSF: 45
W$SD: 55

I am a loser in non showdown pots, but only slightly. I find that for me an optimal range is +/- 0.5 BIs for every 1000 hands. If I am any higher my winrate suffers from me pushing too hard and getting too many folds(not enough value), if I am lower I am spewing too much. I really can't explain why my showdowns #'s are like this, but they have been this way for several hundred thousand hands.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kettleofish

2 confuses me slightly, is it possible to showdown the best hand too often?

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I just meant that I'm not maximizing value enough. To maximize I would need to be betting larger amounts that will be called less often but win more when called. Or making more thin value bets which will slightly increase both my showdown winnings and certainly my non-showdown winnings.

For #2, I really think that it's not going to be a factor if you are playing well or playing poorly for the reason that if you are playing well, manipulating potsize to induce light call downs, etc, you will be gong to showdown just as often.

I've found in the past that focusing on these types of things too much has gotten me away from thinking about specific situations. I get worried too much about the big picture (i.e. what I'm doing wrong in general), and stop focusing on how I can improve my play in specific situations.

I'd go through a bunch of hands I feel these aspects would effect the most and see if there is anything I could be doing better, and if you aren't sure, post some of them here with questions.

Winnings without showdown is driven by game texture.

It doesnt take that much thought to realize what determines bringing your non showdown winnings up.

1. Play more in position, less out of position.
2. Engaging less preflop in spots where you cant win with bluffs (Calling multiway with sc's from the sb, calling hands like AJ to UTG raises).
3. Balancing bluffs in nearly every spot where you have the necessary amount of FE.
4. Being able to pot control your weaker hands. Making correct folds on earlier streets.
5. Not making bluffs without equity.

Essentially, having higher non showdown winnings takes all the skill set you need to become a good player. That being said, even though super high non showdown winning graphs are pretty sweet looking, they dont necessarily mean the person is playing that well. There are a lot of spots where you are going to want to play hands for pure sd value and implied odds + pot odds. You'll probably note the high non showdown winning guys are putting any 8 out draw or better in on the flop or turn no matter what, even though there is no FE. There's also spots where it may be optimal to call 4bets rather than shove over them, yet that will yield a lower non sd winnings. 4bet folding sometimes rather than 4bet calling everything will also yield lower non showdown winnings.

Pretty much your likely doing fine if your non sd winnings are around even. But if your bleeding money look at some of the aspects of the game I wrote above. There's almost no way your playing in a game that would make bleeding a lot in non sd pots optimal.

Oh add one more important one.

1. How much you steal preflop, how often you threebet with good FE and not 3bet with bad FE.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

4bet folding sometimes rather than 4bet calling everything will also yield lower non showdown winnings.

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Rethink this statement ISF. You can't say this as a general certainty, as the inverse MIGHT be true. In other words I could write: 4bet folding sometimes rather than 4bet calling everything MIGHT yield HIGHER non showdown winnings.

Even more specifically in my opinion: 4bet folding sometimes rather than 4bet calling everything SHOULD yield HIGHER non showdown winnings.

If you mean that you also 4bet call as a bluff, then your statement is obviously correct, but you didn't say that and I don't like that strategy.

If you think 4bet folding yields lower non showdown winnings, then you are saying that 4bet folding is -ev in a vacuum. That's at least debatable and depends on your strategy.

I totally agree I was just making blanket general statements because i wanted to make a short post.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

4. Being able to pot control your weaker hands. Making correct folds on earlier streets.

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The more I think "lets just see a turn and see what he does" the more my red line plummets. If I dont do that too much, and dont call PF with "speculative" hands too much I maintain a fairly even line.