Repping kinda thin but doing it with gusto

23/20/3 decent TAG. probably not the most thinking TAG in the world but he's ok. He bets turns with a reasonably high frequency.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Villain (MP) ($808.00)
Hero (CO) ($509.00)
BTN ($38.20)
SB ($756.60)
BB ($398.40)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is CO :ah: :jc:
Villain raises to $14, Hero calls $14, 3 folds

Flop: :tc: :7d: :7h: ($34, 2 players)
Villain bets $24, Hero calls $24

Turn: :2h: ($82, 2 players)
Villain bets $58, Hero raises to $121, Villain calls $63

River: :kh: ($324, 2 players)
Villain checks, Hero goes all-in $350 ...

if he isnt much of a thinker we dnt need to worry a massive amount about repping a thin range since he will likely be scared of the size of the bet. plus we have the Ah so I dont mind it.

Can we assume he ships 7x hands on turn, calls with Tx, FH, Overpairs and FDs?

I like it, specially due to the river completeing the backdoor flush, your credibly repping 7x,10s full and the flush. I raise turn a little bigger though to set up a neater river push.

I'm kind of torn in this spot.

In terms of a bluff, I obviously like it better that we can now represent something (as in a backdoor flush).

Though once he calls the turn raise, which wasn't that large, I'm not convinced that he didn't have some kind of draw (hearts, or straight draws) himself.

I don't even mind flatting the turn sometimes. If he's double barreling and folding on the turn, he's probably folding worse only. I'd like this better with a hand like 68 than AJ.

His range:
(Supposing that 7x ship turn)
1) That will call a river shove:
QhJh/QhTh/JhTh/Th9h/Th8h/T7/TT/77/22/KK/half AA/KT
2) That will fold:
AT/QT(other then 2 hearts)/JT(other then 2 hearts)/T9(other then 2 hearts)/JJ/QQ/half AA/89

1) nb combinations: 31 (counting that only 1 of the 3 combination of AA calls us)
2) nb combinations: 69 (counting that 2 of the 3 AA will fold here)

So here indeed a river shove seems very profitable.
However, the question could be is our range polarised here (or we had some crazy history vs villain) so that villain is tempted to call with AT. But this doesn't matter as even if villain calls with AT the 1) becomes 40 and 2) 69

Conclusion: it's profitable to bluff here even if we are polarising our range (we are not pushing 7x on this board and we would value bet sometime with flush/FH).

Turn raise is pretty bad
River shove is okay

All and all I'd say fold or call turn.

If there's one thing I like about this hand it's sizing on the river.

Ok well lets talk about this for a minute. I feel that on these types of boards there is a good alternative bluffing opportunity to be squeezed out somewhere because they are hard to hit and people feel inclined to barrel for that reason.

Obviously flatting the flop IP here is standard and raising would be bad. On the turn I don't think that the fact that an aggressive player bets means much, he can easily be trying to get us off some low pocket pair. We also have a balanced range since we're probably not raising our trips/houses/TPTK/JJ on the flop and we can have tons of air. So my thoughts we're that I can have some fold equity, I can rep some hands, it's a pretty cheap bluff and I might have 2 outs against a T.

Of course the problem is that the reasons that raising the flop would be bad pretty much still apply on the turn. I'm repping kinda thin and rather polarized. So if raising is bad here than I can fold or call with the intention of bluffing some on the river. Folding is a bit weak I feel because I think there's so much air in the villains range and I don't like calling because we lose ourselves the implied threat that a turn bluff carries. The pot is pretty big on the river and it's so easy for the villain to c/c Tx there that I don't think we will really be able to bluff all that profitabley.

So what is it FTR? Just be a weak ass and fold the turn?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Ok well lets talk about this for a minute. I feel that on these types of boards there is a good alternative bluffing opportunity to be squeezed out somewhere because they are hard to hit and people feel inclined to barrel for that reason.

Obviously flatting the flop IP here is standard and raising would be bad. On the turn I don't think that the fact that an aggressive player bets means much, he can easily be trying to get us off some low pocket pair. We also have a balanced range since we're probably not raising our trips/houses/TPTK/JJ on the flop and we can have tons of air. So my thoughts we're that I can have some fold equity, I can rep some hands, it's a pretty cheap bluff and I might have 2 outs against a T.

Of course the problem is that the reasons that raising the flop would be bad pretty much still apply on the turn. I'm repping kinda thin and rather polarized. So if raising is bad here than I can fold or call with the intention of bluffing some on the river. Folding is a bit weak I feel because I think there's so much air in the villains range and I don't like calling because we lose ourselves the implied threat that a turn bluff carries. The pot is pretty big on the river and it's so easy for the villain to c/c Tx there that I don't think we will really be able to bluff all that profitabley.

So what is it FTR? Just be a weak ass and fold the turn?

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The first 2 bolded statements don't really relate with the last one. If villains range is wide enough, you don't have to worry of him calling with Tx. (btw, he'll bet them on the river a decent amount, so his checking range is weaker. Also, if you're afraid of villains Tx range, do you think it matters if you call turn-bet river when checked to, or raise turn-bet river? I don't think he'll fold Tx anyway, fwiw)

I pretty much think If villains range contains too much Tx+ for you to profitable bluff the river after calling turn, you should fold turn.

I'd like the turn raise bluff much better if it was a 6,8,9,T,J (assuming you didn't have AJ, like this hand). At least you're repping some more realistic hands that would flat flop and raise turn. That's still around 36% of the turn cards that we can raise and rep something on this type of board. I just don't like this particular turn card.

The problem is that you might flat a boat twice pretty often in this spot. You might raise 7x a reasonable amount of the time on the flop to balance with air. So the times you decide to flat 7x on the flop AND raise the turn with 7x (instead of flatting again), seems verry small to me in terms of a credible range.