Originally Posted by Jason
I guess different folks, different strokes, but in my opinion, you are never "due" in poker. You cannot use the past to predict the future as far as probability is concerned. Variance is always variance. It can seem random, seem like an upswing, seem like a downswing, or whatever shape you think it looks like in the past, but that characterization has no bearing on the future - your play might, but luck does not.
Also, for any player who thinks making an extra hundred @ 10NL is a lot of work, then maybe that player isn't ready to move up. That's the thing about level jumping: if you are actually beating a level and ready to move up, winning 10 buy-ins should not seem like a big deal. If it DOES seem like a big deal, then you have to question if you're really beating the level. If there is a hint of emotional hurdle from trying to win 10 buy-ins @ $10NL, how will that same player react after dropping just 4 buy-ins @ $25NL (aka 10 buy-ins @ $10NL)?
I guess this does relate to another idea we may have been skirting around. I've been advocating moving up when a player has 30 buy-ins or more, but that's not entirely true. I think you ALSO need to have a reasonably good win rate of at least 4bb/100 or 2ptBB/100 and preferably more. Because technically if you're just slightly a winner and it takes you a year or more playing tens of thousands of hands to get the bankroll to move up, then you're probably destined to fail if you move up. I think there should be a familiarity, comfort, and confidence based on real past results that you can beat the level you're @ BEFORE you move up. If you're lacking that confidence and ability and ESPECIALLY if you're lacking the bankroll to go with it, success will be a major dog when you move up.