2/4 JJ UTG vs LAGG in BB

okay i've just recently moved to 2/4 and I think it's reasonable for the first 15-20k hands to be quite nitty comapred to how I played at 1/2 before.

here's the setup. this guy is aggro and playing 35/31, and AF 7.3

now you could say well this guy's range is huge etc and this is easy to stack off. i dont' think he's overplaying 88-TT here this way, so this leads me to believe it's QQ+ or 5x, sometimes 68s or of course air.

also to note from the ~ 100 hands i had on him, he was super aggro on flops and very passive on turns (HEM stats: flop: AF 16, turn: AF 1.5)

the flop call is standard, but when he bet the turn this way I just felt he was trying to get value from me, and the important thing to note as well is that my IMAGE is quite nitty.

i can call or fold the turn. if i call the turn he has a shove left on a 300 pot when i have 250 left... so if i call turn do i always call riv shove too?


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($388.00)
CO rumanoff ($249.00)
BTN d0dd087 ($394.00)
SB PainBG ($418.00)
BB CoronaAndLime ($426.90)

Pre-flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is UTG :js: :jd:
Hero raises to $12, 3 folds, CoronaAndLime calls $8

Flop: :7h: :5s: :5d: ($26, 2 players)
CoronaAndLime checks, Hero bets $22, CoronaAndLime raises to $44, Hero calls $22

Turn: :4h: ($114, 2 players)
CoronaAndLime bets $90, Hero folds

Final Pot: $204

CoronaAndLime wins $201 ( won +$55 )
Hero lost -$56

I would rarely fold here against a player like this. I call turn and call pretty much all rivers. Aggro players love attacking paired flops.

calling the flop then folding the turn is preety bad vs this guy.

Well.. assume he was bluffing the flop. IF this is true, he's probably always gonna fire the turn that hits his "obvious" OESD that he's trying to rep. I'm calling flop and calling the turn and re-eval river I guess.

see this is prob one of those spots where you people who don't use hud whatsoever argue that hud stats screw up your game. perhaps i laid too much value on the fact that the stats said he was super aggro on flop and super passive on turns...

do i basically equate hud stats plus presumed image of him being super lagg and me being nitt = he must have me beat here more than 50% of the time??

if we call the turn, assuming he must have crap, how do we really re-eval the river? what are we fearing, when do we fold, are we avoiding certain cads, or a certain bet size?

100 hands is nowhere near enough to get solid reads from. Especially things like turn aggression. How many hands did you actually have where he reached turn? How many of those did he min c/r flop? How many of those were small paired flops where he's unlikely to get value by c/r'ing if he actually hit them?

seems like a good time to fold and not feel too bad about it

The only thing scary about this hand is the flop c/min raise. In most cases, esp against donks, I'd be pretty afraid of that. I just find it weird that someone laggy is doing that.

Again that depends on reads.. and how confident your read is that he's a lagg etc. Donk vs lagg completely changes what c/min raise and lead turn on this board means I think.

Get to river and spike a J is another good plan imo

Yeah agree with griff about the flop minraise, that confused me somewhat, felt that with a proper hand he'd want to pump up the pot as early as he could, if you were fairly agro and spewy yourself I could maaaybe understand his flop raise size a little bit more as it could simply be trying to induce a bluff 4 bet due to the drynes of the flop, but you pointed out that he views you as kinda nitty so I guess thats unlikely. I'd still call turn and re eval river.

well like i said i may be putting too much value on my HEM stats in this spot. even after 100 hands or so if a person is playing 35/31 i absolutely classify them as a lagg and not a fish, as well as AF and 3bet % were both v high.

the problem with calling the turn i think is that the pot is then 294, so when he shoves the riv on any card we have about 250 left to cal into a ~ 550 pot. will we often convince ourselves then that we just gotta call because of odds and that he could be triple barrel bluffing ? are we happier if he shoves on a Q,K,A river for instance, or some low card.

one reason i would be MORE inclined to call the turn is if the flop was a 2flush flop, as it allows him to have more bluffs and semibluffs in his range. this was not the case here, pretty dry imo.

100 hands is ok for basic preflop stats (in essense its a 100 hand sample of the stats), its just not enough for much else. Even a 35/31 has essentially only seen postflop 35 times. Of those 31 were as PFR, so he's only seen postflop 4 times as a flat caller. See how quickly your sample size shrinks?

MR is confusing, and its where I prefer to have notes than stats (stats dont tell you his cbet raise std v's min for example). Some people do it as a cheap bluff, some people do it as value. Folding isnt bad. I normally wouldnt when he can have such a tiny range that beats us, but lets face it, Nuts is significantly better than I am ;).

well i think what nutsinho is getting at is that this may be a slightly -ev play and perhaps a small mistake, but if i'm not sure about a situation it prevents me from making a huge mistake and when you're just moving up in stakes I think that's a good thing to keep in mind.

Definately agree that folding a small bet with a winning hand is better than calling big bets with a losing one.

I call the turn intending to fold to a big river bet.

so you figure if he's bluffing and he's trying to put me on a fairly specific range of hands, he might barrel with the minCR and turn bet but give up most of the time figuring i have anywhere from TT-AA here?

how do you handle the river board texture in this case, what are the worst cards for us, I mean if he's bluffing he really could have any 2 right?