Set of 2's- Check this river?

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03-22-2009, 04:22 AM
Sl4y3r

Set of 2's- Check this river?

This hand was against the table donator, but im worried about the river play. He was 78/30 and Id seen him call $10 to the river and fold for $1.50 more, is there anypoint betting here? FWIW I put him on flush draw, 2pair or tptk.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($23.30)
MP3 ($9.70)
CO ($10)
Button ($8)
SB ($10.80)
BB ($9.80)
UTG ($6.50)
UTG+1 ($3.75)
Hero (MP1) ($9.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, 4 folds, SB calls $0.15, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.20, SB calls $1.20, 1 fold

Turn: ($3.60) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB calls $2.50

River: ($8.60) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB raises to $6.90 (All-In), Hero calls $2 (All-In)

Total pot: $19.60 | Rake: $0.95
03-22-2009, 04:37 AM
Stacks

Fold preflop.

Raise larger on the flop, say $1.70ish.

Bet turn harder.

Shove river, count evies!
03-22-2009, 04:49 AM
bigspenda73

wut is this, you flopped a set against the fish and you want to check a safe river?
03-22-2009, 05:03 AM
Sl4y3r

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

wut is this, you flopped a set against the fish and you want to check a safe river?

Well I didnt want to, guess its fine and I should get over that he showed down the nut straight. Just thought that my read that he chases large bets down to river and folds could make this a check.

Thanks stax and spenda will bet harder and maybe consider the pf fold next time.
03-22-2009, 05:07 AM
Muzzard

:facepalm:
03-22-2009, 05:10 AM
Sl4y3r

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muzzard

:facepalm:

Is it really facepalm bad? Damn...
03-22-2009, 05:44 AM
Stacks

The part that makes it bad is the fact that you have him pegged as the table donator. You have seen him make some terrible plays. He has alot more in his range here than just what beats you, yet because you lost this time you want to check back river. Your ahead of his calling range on this river, therefore shoving the river is profitable. If you are ahead of the range he calls the river with only 51% of the time, then a shove is correct. Look at some of the hands this bad of a player would call the river with, and throw them in pokerstove and see if you have >51% equity.
03-23-2009, 08:17 PM
grimreaper007

i wouldnt check a safe river like that make at least a value bet u get called either win a little more or lose and still have some left but not very likely that ur behind there
03-23-2009, 08:27 PM
KeeKoLy

Considering this villain could be holding a wide range, and the fact the board is pretty wet (FD and SD), would it be bad to shove the flop after he bets?
03-23-2009, 08:29 PM
grimreaper007

well i would assume u want to make some money after u see the flop so i would say bad idea
03-23-2009, 08:30 PM
speedcake

also, raise a bit more on the flop and make your turn bet closer to pot. You'll make getting the rest in on the river far easier.
03-23-2009, 08:37 PM
KeeKoLy

Quote:

Originally Posted by grimreaper007

well i would assume u want to make some money after u see the flop so i would say bad idea

If he has ATc, he has a gutshot str8 and a flush draw. Not counting running Aces or running T's, this gives him 12 outs to the str8 or flush. With two cards to come and 12 outs, I believe thats 48% to make his hand. In the instances he doesn't make his hand, he likely is not calling any river bet.

So after thinking it through that way, I agree with raising a bit more on the flop, thuse you are able to bet even bigger on the turn to deny him odds to hit the river. So in most cases you will hope he makes the mistake of calling your pot size turn bet without odds, missing the river and folding. Is my thinking correct here?
03-23-2009, 09:04 PM
Stacks

Quote:

Originally Posted by KeeKoLy

Considering this villain could be holding a wide range, and the fact the board is pretty wet (FD and SD), would it be bad to shove the flop after he bets?

Betting/Raising bigger is needed here, but shoving over his straight up overkill. You would be shoving like a $9 stack into the pot of $1.20. Yeah, sure.... You are likely ahead, and there are a fair amount of draws. However, you are ahead of draws. You WANT draws to call your raise. Even if this means that he hits on the turn and wins the pot.* Your job in poker to put money in the pot when your a favorite, and to avoid putting money in the pot when your an underdog (unless they fold often enough). Here you are a favorite, you want to bet/raise an amount that he will call, yet that will make his call incorrect.

* Also remember, that even if you raise and he does call the flop with a draw and hit it on the turn, with our particular hand we have redraws to 10 outs going into the river.
03-23-2009, 09:18 PM
Kbryce23

Quote:

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Fold preflop.

Raise larger on the flop, say $1.70ish.

Bet turn harder.

Shove river, count evies!

Is this not a profitable setmining spot?
03-23-2009, 09:58 PM
KeeKoLy

Quote:

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Quote:

Originally Posted by KeeKoLy

Considering this villain could be holding a wide range, and the fact the board is pretty wet (FD and SD), would it be bad to shove the flop after he bets?

Betting/Raising bigger is needed here, but shoving over his straight up overkill. You would be shoving like a $9 stack into the pot of $1.20. Yeah, sure.... You are likely ahead, and there are a fair amount of draws. However, you are ahead of draws. You WANT draws to call your raise. Even if this means that he hits on the turn and wins the pot.* Your job in poker to put money in the pot when your a favorite, and to avoid putting money in the pot when your an underdog (unless they fold often enough). Here you are a favorite, you want to bet/raise an amount that he will call, yet that will make his call incorrect.

* Also remember, that even if you raise and he does call the flop with a draw and hit it on the turn, with our particular hand we have redraws to 10 outs going into the river.

Ok, I am not trying to de-rail the thread from this particular hand, but rather ask hypothetical questions to bring forth discussion...

So, let's say we were short stacked (let's say $4) when the hand starts. Now on the flop he bets .50 into .70 (pot is now 1.20), would it then be correct to shove? In this case, we would still have over 3.50, so I would think we would still not want to shove here. I am just trying to relate this to some of the stack size threads going around lately.
03-23-2009, 10:20 PM
RoyalProdigy

Alright hes the table donator correct? So you know hes a fish correct? We all know what fish do they go for the bait, they call call call. So we get this wonderful flop and your raise on the flop was perfect imo. So he calls your raise. Whats he calling with? theres only two hands that beat you and hes not holding one of them and we know it. So hes on a draw or hes got k-q or q-j. I know i got the better of him and if i bet anything lower than the pot hes gonna call to try and suck out, so im probably going to overbet the turn a bit to protect my hand and if he calls and sucks out anyway oh well i did what i could to protect my hand while i was big favorite.The reason i would overbet the turn a little bit is because if he has flush draw and he calls hes like 18% to hit so most the time hes not and he puts in almost all his money for a blank, Also he might just fold right there and i can just pick up what he already put in the pot from the flop bet. Your turn bet was low, and the river wasnt scary enough for me to even question shoving. I'm shoving the river oh yeah!
03-24-2009, 01:19 AM
daven

Quote:

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Betting/Raising bigger is needed here, but shoving over his straight up overkill.

this
03-24-2009, 01:49 AM
Sl4y3r

Quote:

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

The part that makes it bad is the fact that you have him pegged as the table donator. You have seen him make some terrible plays. He has alot more in his range here than just what beats you, yet because you lost this time you want to check back river. Your ahead of his calling range on this river, therefore shoving the river is profitable. If you are ahead of the range he calls the river with only 51% of the time, then a shove is correct. Look at some of the hands this bad of a player would call the river with, and throw them in pokerstove and see if you have >51% equity.

Thanks stacks. I had a look into this with pokerstove, really I have a crapload of equity against this player. I felt this during the hand, and i insta called his shove over and said to myself cooler/suckout if he has AT. I believed he would fold river and decided on an amount he may have called with TP.

The fact is that I shoulve bet harder on all streets but I didnt want to scare him out of the pot because I felt he may have a TP type hand. He liteterally blew 2 buy ins in the last 20hands chasing to the river and folding to a 1/8th-1/10th pot sized bet. I just really didnt want to blow him out of the pot, doing so I let him draw reasonably cheaply(for his standards).

The main reason I posted this hand was to see if anyone thought betting/shoving against this particular player with my read is profitable.

Im really happy that it generated so much discussion, thanks to everyone that has contributed.