First post in long time ;-)

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03-22-2009, 10:59 AM
EthanH1

First post in long time ;-)

sats on villan 11.7/5.5/2 over 300hs out of postion i put the guy 3bet down to AA,KK,QQ,AK. by the way i was showing 26/15 at the time so could it maybe lower?. Anyway so seems 50/50, and stacking off when 50/50 can't be good, right?

GAME #1494461219: Texas Hold'em NL $0.01/$0.02 2009-03-16 16:10:02
Table Amadeus
Seat 1: yugonostalgy ($0.91 in chips)
Seat 5: VILLAN ($5.56 in chips)
Seat 6: piotersz ($3.72 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero ($4.92 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: MTORLA ($9.65 in chips)
MTORLA: Post SB $0.01
yugonostalgy: Post BB $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [HK SK]
VILLAN: Raise (NF) $0.08
piotersz: Fold
HERO: Raise (NF) $0.26
MTORLA: Fold
yugonostalgy: Fold
VILLAN: Raise (NF) $0.81
HERO: Call $0.55
*** FLOP *** [CQ CK HA]
VILLAN: Bet $1.65
HERO: Raise (NF) $4.11
VILLAN: Call $2.46
*** TURN *** [H7]
*** RIVER *** [D4]
03-22-2009, 11:03 AM
Muzzard

Re: First post in long time ;-)

Quote:

Originally Posted by EthanH1

sats on villan 11.7/5.5/2 over 300hs out of postion i put the guy 3bet down to AA,KK,QQ,AK. by the way i was showing 26/15 at the time so could it maybe lower?. Anyway so seems 50/50, and stacking off when 50/50 can't be good, right?

GAME #1494461219: Texas Hold'em NL $0.01/$0.02 2009-03-16 16:10:02
Table Amadeus
Seat 1: yugonostalgy ($0.91 in chips)
Seat 5: VILLAN ($5.56 in chips)
Seat 6: piotersz ($3.72 in chips)
Seat 8: Hero ($4.92 in chips) DEALER
Seat 10: MTORLA ($9.65 in chips)
MTORLA: Post SB $0.01
yugonostalgy: Post BB $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [HK SK]
VILLAN: Raise (NF) $0.08
piotersz: Fold
HERO: Raise (NF) $0.26
MTORLA: Fold
yugonostalgy: Fold
VILLAN: Raise (NF) $0.81
HERO: Call $0.55
*** FLOP *** [CQ CK HA]
VILLAN: Bet $1.65
HERO: Raise (NF) $4.11
VILLAN: Call $2.46
*** TURN *** [H7]
*** RIVER *** [D4]

You put him on AA/KK/QQ/AK when he 4bet preflop. You can't beat any of those hands, so you shove. Makes sense!

Just fold pre, I wouldn't personally 3ball a UTg raise with KTo.
03-22-2009, 11:07 AM
EthanH1

lol Muzzard i have Kh Ks not KTo ;-), and you are right of course that is a four bet he made, sorry i think the range i gave still stands.
03-22-2009, 11:16 AM
Muzzard

Quote:

Originally Posted by EthanH1

lol Muzzard i have Kh Ks not KTo ;-), and you are right of course that is a four bet he made, sorry i think the range i gave still stands.

Sorry my bad! It's the HH format, not particularly easy to read. All-in then ldo, ur ahead of his range and he's calling you with QQ/AK and there are more combinations of those than AA. EZ ship.
03-22-2009, 01:33 PM
JKDS

We have 57% equity pre and post, easy ship. To one of your questions, if we are ever 50/50, its always an easy ship. The reasoning is because villain can never bet enough to give us worse than 1:1 odds, so what we expect to win is always greater than or equal to what we expect to lose. Then, for our ev equation
ev = equity*money won - %lose * money lost
at worst money won = money lost, so ev = money won (equity -%lose)
if equity is >=50% we always profit. In reality, money won is greater than money lost though, so we usually need less than 50% equity to continue.

im not qualified to talk about vp$ip or pfr stats. Im currently working that out though :)
03-22-2009, 02:11 PM
Muzzard

Quote:

Originally Posted by JKDS

We have 57% equity pre and post, easy ship. To one of your questions, if we are ever 50/50, its always an easy ship. The reasoning is because villain can never bet enough to give us worse than 1:1 odds, so what we expect to win is always greater than or equal to what we expect to lose. Then, for our ev equation
ev = equity*money won - %lose * money lost
at worst money won = money lost, so ev = money won (equity -%lose)
if equity is >=50% we always profit. In reality, money won is greater than money lost though, so we usually need less than 50% equity to continue.

im not qualified to talk about vp$ip or pfr stats. Im currently working that out though :)

We have way more post flop equity. Like 63%
03-22-2009, 08:03 PM
EthanH1

Posted: Sun, 22 Mar 2009, 6:11pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JKDS wrote:
We have 57% equity pre and post, easy ship. To one of your questions, if we are ever 50/50, its always an easy ship. The reasoning is because villain can never bet enough to give us worse than 1:1 odds, so what we expect to win is always greater than or equal to what we expect to lose. Then, for our ev equation
ev = equity*money won - %lose * money lost
at worst money won = money lost, so ev = money won (equity -%lose)
if equity is >=50% we always profit. In reality, money won is greater than money lost though, so we usually need less than 50% equity to continue.

im not qualified to talk about vp$ip or pfr stats. Im currently working that out though

Thanks Very much JKDS this is exactly what i was needing, and expecting from some here ;-).