400NL: 99 IP vs TAG

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03-25-2009, 02:37 PM
jimmy44

400NL: 99 IP vs TAG

villain was 22/17/3 c-bet 69%
On flop I put him mostly on JJ/99/88/66/55/AK/AT/JT and maybe 89.
When he checks turn I still put him on the same hands so I think this is good spot to bet again, no? If he raises he has most likely AT/JT or maybe a FD re-bluffing us.
If we check here, what is our line on the river if villain bets 1/2 on a heart?

No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($856.65)
Hero (MP) ($425)
Button ($398.90)
SB ($589.20)
BB ($400)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 9http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif
UTG bets $14, Hero calls $14, 3 folds

Flop: ($34) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $20, UTG calls $20

Turn: ($74) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ??
03-25-2009, 02:50 PM
elipsesjeff

I dont really get your flop bet. I also think he'd c/f 55-88 and cbet most of his draws. Does villain play QJ/KQ like this often as depending on your image it might be a good way to play TP vs you.

Are you betting for value or to try and get JJ to fold? I'm confused.
03-25-2009, 04:08 PM
meeloche

Quote:

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I dont really get your flop bet. I also think he'd c/f 55-88 and cbet most of his draws. Does villain play QJ/KQ like this often as depending on your image it might be a good way to play TP vs you.

Are you betting for value or to try and get JJ to fold? I'm confused.

this

I would say this is a 10 or you could probably add some queens into that range as well based on your image which I'm assuming isn't stationy or super aggro.
03-25-2009, 04:18 PM
Fnord

Flop bet is fine.
Flop range is silly. He should have a lot of shit in his range that he's giving up on.

Turn is a fun spot. I could go either way. Although, Tx sounds like the sort of hand that would c/c the flop.
03-25-2009, 06:50 PM
griffey24

I don't mind the flop bet at all, with reads that this type of playing isn't c/r every draw in the world (all insiders etc).. cause we don't wanna get blown off here. If he's going to c/c draws then I like the bet.

I check turn almost always though, and soul read his river lead.
03-25-2009, 07:02 PM
meeloche

You think a 22/17/3 reg is c/c draws as the pfr?
03-25-2009, 07:26 PM
PQQP

Flop bet is excellent, lets you know where ur at in the hand before you start making rash decisions by being the calling station the whole way
03-25-2009, 07:39 PM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by meeloche

You think a 22/17/3 reg is c/c draws as the pfr?

ooooh my bad... didn't notice hero wasn't PFR!

Well I still don't mind the bet, but now moreso for protection/taking it down than for direct value. Though now that he c/c'd flop I'm much more likely to check through turn and fold most rivers.
03-25-2009, 08:01 PM
b-rabbit

how often do we see the villain taking this line with a set on the flop at these stakes??
03-25-2009, 09:31 PM
Alexos

I think his c/c range is 90% Tx, so I give up after flop cbet.

As for whether to cbet or not, I don't think we need to protect that much, because I'd expect him to cbet any gutshots or better, which on this board is a huge range. His c/f range could include stuff like 56s or a9s type stuff than will have at most 3 outs so we don't need to worry about that. So, check.
03-25-2009, 10:05 PM
AFchung

Quote:

Originally Posted by PQQP

Flop bet is excellent, lets you know where ur at in the hand before you start making rash decisions by being the calling station the whole way

we bet to make worst hands call and better hands fold, not to "see where we're at"
03-26-2009, 12:26 AM
Genitruc

check flop bet turn massive overbet riv (when checked to)
03-26-2009, 12:46 AM
meeloche

Quote:

Originally Posted by b-rabbit

how often do we see the villain taking this line with a set on the flop at these stakes??

0% of the time.
03-26-2009, 01:54 AM
mcatdog

99 seems like one of the worst hands you could bet with on the turn?
03-26-2009, 02:59 AM
b-rabbit

Quote:

Originally Posted by meeloche

Quote:

Originally Posted by b-rabbit

how often do we see the villain taking this line with a set on the flop at these stakes??

0% of the time.

ha fair enough
03-26-2009, 03:23 AM
jimmy44

Do you think that this guy could c/c TP OOP on such a drawy board when he c-bets 69%?

Turn: ($74) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($74) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets $70, Hero ???

We all agree that villain has a very small percentage of the time a flush here, right?
03-26-2009, 08:31 AM
elipsesjeff

I'd be more likely to call this if we hadn't bet the flop. Now I guess just fold it.
03-26-2009, 09:09 AM
Genitruc

shoving is fine here
03-26-2009, 09:35 AM
griffey24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Genitruc

shoving is fine here

I've definitely seen ppl c/c on flops after being PFR with hands like AQhh, KQhh or a hand like AJhh sometimes, when they think A high is even good.

I don't know that shoving is fine here.....
03-26-2009, 12:38 PM
Alexos

bet size is scary, foooooldd
03-26-2009, 01:30 PM
Numbr2intheWorld

im not sure what you are possible thinking that makes you want to call this river.
03-26-2009, 03:32 PM
Genitruc

in all of my poker playing life i ve never seen an aggro tagg with this guy's stats check-call a good FD oop in this spot on the flop

the only hand that really scares me is ducks
03-26-2009, 04:09 PM
griffey24

I think he has trip T's here a ridiculous amount of the time...so I'd folddd for sure.
03-26-2009, 04:27 PM
IowaSkinsFan

I'd fold it looks too much like trip Tens.

I'd check the flop, betting is okay.
03-26-2009, 08:14 PM
bjsaust

If we had a FD on the flop would we bet when checked to?
03-26-2009, 08:56 PM
elipsesjeff

Like what, Ah9h or Ah8h? Every other reasonable combination gives us combo draw to the nuts of some sort. And yeah I'd bet those but for completely different reasons.
03-26-2009, 09:05 PM
bjsaust

I guess I'm wondering if most of his range is trip tens, and we'd play a NFD this way, then does he fold his trip Ts enough to bluff here?
03-26-2009, 11:03 PM
Alexos

betting the flop is okay if u plan to bluff/turn your hand into a bluff at least sometimes on turn/river just because you have so many bluffing cards vs his weak range

but id rather use a different hand than 99 to do that with
03-27-2009, 11:17 AM
riverturnflop

i fold.