2/4 - cold 4-bet...oops got called.. now what?

-I haven't been getting too out of line on this table, and noticed this villain had been 3betting somewhat loose on the button.
-villain running around 20/16 with a 3bet of 8 and probably a higher 3bet on the button (though not a large sample. Haven't played with too many ppl on stars yet, first couple weeks)
-CO in this hand is a multi-tabling reg on stars, who runs about 17/15 but folds a lot of 3bets, especially OOP
-villain and I have no relevant history other than I 3bet his button open a few times and he folded once and folded on an A high flop another time
-Based on feel/timing of flop call I felt like I should shut down, which was the plan until the river. I feel like shove, c/c or c/f are all reasonable here?


$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($411.60)
UTG+1 ($559.70)
CO ($394.00)
BTN ($475.00)
Hero (SB) ($597.70)
BB ($228.15)

Pre-flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is SB :qh: :jc:
2 folds, CO raises to $12, BTN raises to $39, Hero raises to $95, 1 fold, CO folds, BTN calls $56

Flop: :3s: :5d: :ah: ($206, 2 players)
Hero bets $85, BTN calls $85

Turn: :qc: ($356, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: :js: ($356, 2 players)
Hero with $300ish behind

damn yeah I probably just c/f

i think 8% is where i would draw the line pretty much for cold 4-betting, unless they just folded a ton or w/e. if he folds to 3-bets a ton than i would think he's probably calling with a pretty tight range to a 4-bet. we can be pretty sure hes calling with an ace right? he's folding everything worse imo. AQ/AJ are less likely as we have blockers, and AK presumably would've jammed. i just could never bring myself to c/f because we're taking such a weak line and he would never put us on QJ, so i would feel like im just being bluffed a ton. i think i would just shove.

I think preflop is fine, this guy's btn 3 betting range is fairly wide and squeezing here with qj is probably going to be profitable. On the river I just shove.

bet 50 on flop, 150 on turn into pot of 300, shove river obv.

They fold the turn like 90% of the time anyways since they almost always have like 88-TT when they do this.

you're not getting called by worse, so c/f imo

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

you're not getting called by worse, so c/f imo

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nit

Seriously give me a range of hands he calls that are worse than our 2pr here?

c/f seems good unfortunately, I wonder if he thin vb's AK though, I doubt he calls a shove with it, plus i think we can discount it a bunch cause it would felt pre the majority of the time.

riv seems pretty shovealicious to me, gg if he has AJ

He never has AK... he folds mid PP to a shove... what else is left? ATs, A9s? Is he dumb enough to call a shove with those...

definitely bet the river, you dont have to shove or bet/call, checkfolding is terribad

i think betting 85$ and folding to a poosh gets us owned so much by good regs, and i also think shove is bad cuz it never gets called by worse

i still prefer c/f, haaaaate shove, but dont mind 85$ bet vs some villains


edit: okay i guess we can get owned as often if villain turns his pair into a bluff here or something so c/f aitn that hot because of that... so im likin 85$ now... still hate shove

some ppl are stations

I'd bet that like 1 million%.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Genitruc

some ppl are stations

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I don't disagree with this. I guess this comes down to the possible "4-bet flatting range" that we can assign to a relatively unknown. Obviously if he has hands like A8s or stuff, a bet here is much more straight forward.

If he only has AJ+ here, and shoves KK/AK pre... well... it's easy to see we're value towning ourselves...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

i think betting 85$ and folding to a poosh gets us owned so much by good regs, and i also think shove is bad cuz it never gets called by worse

i still prefer c/f, haaaaate shove, but dont mind 85$ bet vs some villains


edit: okay i guess we can get owned as often if villain turns his pair into a bluff here or something so c/f aitn that hot because of that... so im likin 85$ now... still hate shove

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I think bet small/fold is probably the best line because it seems insane for a reg to bluff here

There is def value in a bet so i think c/f is not an option at all

I think value betting smallish against a weird suited ace that didn't make two pair is good. I think any better hand other than A-J can be almost ruled out based on the action. Your line looks pretty strong, but whatever, hopefully he makes a bad call.

i think he has AA like always

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alexos

i think he has AA like always

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alex you are a great player but, srsly, hahahahahaha

:) hahah if you don't believe me ask Griffey !!!!

Yaaah he had AA here...

buttt to say he has AA here always means that AA is the only pair hand he's ever 3betting pre and then cold calling my smallish 4bet IP.

If he flats ANY other pair pre there ever (TT-KK), he's also going to end up flatting my smallll cbet on the A high board at least once. So most of the time his range for getting to the river like this should still have all those hands.. as well as any Axss he might peel pre.

My reasoning for shutting down after flop (aside from hitting a piece) was more of a feel/timing thing. Though otherwise its probably an ok spot to double on a brick I think...esp after my flop sizing.

AA is def a possibility and is more likely than any other hand that beats you imo (AJ is close 2nd not because he's very likely to play it this way but because of combos. nothing else seems to make much sense) . It's still a clear value bet against anyone who's got some game in them.

Honestly i dont why everyone loves 4-bet bluffing this spot, people are paying off QQ-AA here.

And you're oop.

And you don't have any real reads to justify it.

you guys reckon villain ever has 66-1010 here?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ash256

you guys reckon villain ever has 66-1010 here?

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TT sometimes not v often I dont think and 66-99 very rarely/almost never

I fail to see why thats important though? I doubt he turns them into a bluff if chkd to on the river if he even has them

id c/f the flop?

no way I think we have to get the flop. He's way more likely to have TT/JJ than AK and he'll fold them a lot anyway I think.

I think he's more likely to have AQ than any of those.

But I don't think he's folding JJ/TT to one bet always.

If we had KQ a 4,2,5, or 3 id bet.

Yeah you have fair points there.