oh hello there flop 400NL

Villain is 12/9 and never seen him get out of line. He doubled up 5 handed when I 3bet the button from the SB and he 4bet from the BB with AA and won vs my QQ.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP2 ($561.80)
MP3 ($426)
CO ($419.10)
Button ($406.95)
SB ($578.50)
BB ($92.35)
Hero (UTG) ($400)
UTG+1 ($760)
MP1 ($400)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
Hero bets $16, UTG+1 calls $16, 2 folds, MP3 calls $16, 4 folds

Flop: ($54) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (3 players)
Hero bets $36, UTG+1 raises to $102, 1 fold, Hero

well you are a 60/40 dog at best, likely just drawing to another club but I shove anyway cos fuck you I have aa with the nut flush draw.



edit: Also this censoring of f.uck sucks ass.

Would he refrain from 3-betting KK to your UTG raise? Doubtful, so we're left with a made flush(QJs really doubtful though) or 77,66 as his most likely made-hand holdings. Other than that he has AK here a lot IMO, and I think we are just crushing his range over all, with re-draws. Get it in, and happily for the most part!

I think AK is one of the few hands he can't have. KK is most likely imo. Don't know if he folds 66-77 preflop

35% chance to win this pot against his sets. I doubt that he raised with AK without any clubs.

agree he never has ak here.

he can't have AK cos hero has Ac and he's not raising without it.
I like calling

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

he can't have AK cos hero has Ac and he's not raising without it.
I like calling

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Bingo.

Get it in.

a shove would be risking 350 for a shot at 800, and you have 11 outs over two streets, making that play BARELY not profitable before taking fold equity into account. i still don't know if this 12/9 "solid" players fold equity is even big enough to make up for this margin though. a call is also barely above the right pot odds, and would put you OOP in a tough spot so that option doesn't thrill me. i think a push is going to be very marginally +EV but is probably your best option

can we put 76s in his range?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

a shove would be risking 350 for a shot at 800,

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odds is definitely not this good. A shove would be risking $348 for a shot at $468.

Its not a 3 bet pot. so i like to call and reevaluate on the turn. A shove is a mistake if we can narrow his range down to sets.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surviva316

a shove would be risking 350 for a shot at 800,

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odds is definitely not this good. A shove would be risking $348 for a shot at $468.

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i calculate using percentages--not odds.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pokerfan

Its not a 3 bet pot. so i like to call and reevaluate on the turn. A shove is a mistake if we can narrow his range down to sets.

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I agree. He's calling the shove and I don't really like a coin flip here.

Ship it.

why cnat he have AK?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wakeup

why cnat he have AK?

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This

:shipit:

i think its probably a very close fold

if he can have a bluff frequency or AK at all then its a shove, but i doubt he can.

villain has set every time

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

villain has set every time

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maybe that's what he wants you to think! mwahahahahaha

i realize i dont even come close to playing this level of poker nor do i even think i am anything but a fish to most FTR regulars, but could someone be a little more specific than fnord and jessyj why AK is not in villians range?

Birdman

ok...

Daven wrote..
"he can't have AK cos hero has Ac and he's not raising without it.
I like calling"

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Renton

i think its probably a very close fold

if he can have a bluff frequency or AK at all then its a shove, but i doubt he can.

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This,

been reading down the thread thinking it.

Opp is never ever ever bluffing and is v unlikely imo to be raising AK if he has it, he is also raising before another is to act.

It a fold here, very tough at the tables to fold tho.

i obviously shoved and he folded so wtf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Deanglow

i obviously shoved and he folded so wtf

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New flash, online nits who don't go busto bluff sometimes!

lol