Some 'long term' questions for the big boys.
So... been a fair bit of interesting talk on the forums lately and even though i've posted a lot lately, the questions keep coming faster than the answers.
This post here sparked my imagination a lot, i'm sure you've all read it (the one with the variance calculator):
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...99.html#871501
First reaction was like: wow!! incredible, i'm going to win at poker even though my graph is a bit flat, 23k hands REALLY is insignificant. I finally understand now. Just keep getting the hands in etc.
Then, through that post span off other links and articles about SD or 'standard deviation' and what a downswing really is and how common they are AND how EVIL they can be.... even though you're a top winning player... how frequent they are, how loooong they last etc. etc. etc.
In short... question is.... so why are we playing poker again?
In detail:
1. If variance is SO long term, we could be winning losing players for months or more (i.e. poor players with good variance) or vice versa, great players with shit variance over 200k hands or so. Just how can we every know if we're on par or doing well or how can we know anything!?
2. I'd love to see some REAL long term stats. Would any mid stake hard core grinders care to show what a real graph can look like over a long sample?
3. For future reference... those of you who earn a living from poker.... specifically what do you do to pay the bills if you have one or two break even (or worse) months?
4. SD and variance in mind... what is the ratio like for long term, successful mid stakers between those shit months and the good months?
Thank you kindly. Following the white rabbit through Wonderland.
Re: Some 'long term' questions for the big boys.
ok. For graphs you should use the search function here on FTR. Also, variance happens, but if you are beating the stake you're at by a big enough margin - even the 1/100 -ve variance streak could be breakeven or better. Go to that site (i can't be bothered) and note that a 3ptBB/100 winner always does pretty well over 100k+ samples.
as for months - again, it depends on your true win-rate (including bonuses/rakeback/etc) and your hand volumes. I haven't had a losing month yet, but i have had plenty of losing 40k hand stretches. And this is from someone who is only a marginally above break-even player at the stakes played.
Re playing pro and paying bills etc. Most pro players play off a very deep roll for the stakes they play and have savings set aside to cover these sorts of variance situations. I finish work in two weeks. I have enough money in savings to travel for a few years if I want (thanks poker!), and like to run a poker bankroll of 60-100 buyins. If I somehow have a breakeven or losing month I'll still be able to withdraw 20buyins and that's fine to live on for that month - without even thinking about dipping into savings...