fd/gutshot combo standard vs set?

villin 10-6 and 100% fold to c-bet plus not much aggression to date over 200ish hands. I put him on a set against which i have zero fold equity, so.. flat or shove better?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($202.15)
Button ($62.45)
SB ($91.35)
BB ($213.10)
UTG ($70)
MP1 ($102.30)
MP2 ($120.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
1 fold, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, Button calls $1, 1 fold, BB checks

Flop: ($4.50) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $4.50, Hero raises to $13, 2 folds, MP1 raises to $33,

If he definitely has a set you need better than 2:1 for the shove and you aren't getting it here. Flatting seems OK as long as he pays off a small bet when we hit and we don't pay off to his boat if he improves.

About the flold-to c-bet... look at his donk-bet %.

Depending on how active he is post-flop, I would consider flatting the flop bet. You don't necessarily want to get it in on the flop with a draw that is easily dominated.
I don't think you should be raising without a plan against a 3-bet. You can't really call - you're prolly getting shoved into on the turn... I guess shove, but somebody do the math, please :)
I really think you shouldn't have raised to begin with. If he's really passive then there's almost no chance he's folding to the raise... bloating the pot here isn't horrible, but I think there's more value in hitting it and then shoving.

just flat call his bet on the flop. As played, i'd fold to his 3 bet. Your straight or flush is so obvious when you hit , so your implied odds is worse than you think IMO. I'm not sure whether its profitable to limp in preflop behind one 10/6 limper. :?

yah, I was going to say - I don't limp this with just one limper - unless there are some passive donks behind, and nobody in LP who is likely to iso us here.

iso preflop unless he likes to LRR

I think the flop has to be a call - he is betting full pot on an Axx board after limping, it is unlikely he has a hand like AK/AQ and draws aren't really in his range. Once he pots the flop his range is super-strong and we have some nice implied odds as well as the chance to keep the button/BB in pot (especially if either of these players are fishy..)

As played you're getting like 3:1 on the call and you're ~3:1 to hit so it's a call as you don't need much in the way of implied odds even though your hand is not exactly disguised. Shove seems spewy.

Fold?

preflop is fine but I don't see why you're raising the flop

Yeah I'd call the flop, and LOL at whoever suggesting folding to the 3-bet. You're getting 3:1 and even if he always folds on a flush turn (not true) he's stacking off 100% of the time when you hit your 3-outer for the gutshot.

Only reason flop could be a fold is if he sometimes is bluffing with a better flush draw, but I doubt he ever is, besides OP was nice enough to tell us the results that villain has a set.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

Yeah I'd call the flop, and LOL at whoever suggesting folding to the 3-bet.

Only reason flop could be a fold is if he sometimes is bluffing with a better flush draw, but I doubt he ever is, besides OP was nice enough to tell us the results that villain has a set.

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the set thing was a read only, i thought i had clicked time while i was deciding what to do and got a rude shock when i time out-folded...

I raise or fold pre, as played flat his flop bet, think of his utg limping range that fires so strongly at this flop multiway, very seldomly will he fold to a raise and often he'll 4 bet leaving you in the position of getting 100 bb's in with 30ish % equity.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

Yeah I'd call the flop, and LOL at whoever suggesting folding to the 3-bet. You're getting 3:1 and even if he always folds on a flush turn (not true) he's stacking off 100% of the time when you hit your 3-outer for the gutshot.

Only reason flop could be a fold is if he sometimes is bluffing with a better flush draw, but I doubt he ever is, besides OP was nice enough to tell us the results that villain has a set.

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I figured all of our outs are pretty action-killing. Even if we hit our gutter, you don't think villain would ever suspect 54s & not pay us off? Although I guess most people don't fold sets ever, so I'm probably wrong.

yeah people don't fold sets for 100 bbs....ever