100NL, Top set running sooo bad ?

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05-22-2009, 12:28 AM
pokerfan

100NL, Top set running sooo bad ?

villain is a regular running 14/4/1.7. his c-bet is 54% and 3 bet is only 0.7%. Hero call or fold given his range on the river? Hmmm, his turn minraise sounds to me like fucking nuts.
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($106.05)
UTG+1 ($97.50)
MP1 ($104.10)
MP2 ($147.05)
MP3 ($117.45)
CO ($155.10)
Button ($42.70)
SB ($95.40)
Hero (BB) ($121)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $4, 6 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($8.50) 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $6, UTG+1 calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $12, UTG+1 raises $24, Hero calls $12

River: ($68.50) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $37, Hero ?
05-22-2009, 04:49 PM
jessyj

He never has a worse set because of his pfr. He can never have 2p. With his betsizing he's never bluffing. That all adds up to a nutty hand.
05-22-2009, 06:45 PM
lockpull

What is the turn bet trying to accomplish?
05-22-2009, 07:22 PM
pokerfan

Quote:

Originally Posted by lockpull

What is the turn bet trying to accomplish?

Please explain whats wrong with my turn bet?
05-22-2009, 07:28 PM
mxiu

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfan

Quote:

Originally Posted by lockpull

What is the turn bet trying to accomplish?

Please explain whats wrong with my turn bet?

nothing lmao, turn bet is totally standard
05-22-2009, 08:22 PM
bikes

This entire hand is so lol.
05-23-2009, 12:53 AM
mcatdog

I can't even imagine a worse type of opponent to lead a flopped set against.
05-23-2009, 12:56 AM
Stacks

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcatdog

I can't even imagine a worse type of opponent to lead a flopped set against.

this.. Villain has a 4% PFR and is opening from UTG+1. I check/raise this all day.
05-23-2009, 11:33 AM
lockpull

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfan

Quote:

Originally Posted by lockpull

What is the turn bet trying to accomplish?

Please explain whats wrong with my turn bet?

I was not criticizing your turn bet. Just wondering if you were trying to build a bigger pot or keep control of the hand with it.
05-23-2009, 12:26 PM
jessyj

Checking this turn would be criminal because this guy raises pre w/4% of hands and only cbets 54% so he's probably the type that's going to check behind here with QQ+ but probably call.
05-23-2009, 12:56 PM
golfguy37

You should have bet more on the flop to give him bad implied odds. Although the pot was pretty small.... hm... yeah you just got unlucky, sorry dude.
05-23-2009, 03:38 PM
pokerfan

sigh, i should've c/r on the flop vs these types of passive players.
My question is if he just smooth call our c/r, whats our plan on the turn. B/f or just shove ?
05-23-2009, 05:45 PM
golfguy37

I would have just flat called and hoped to make a full house on the river. I think you played it correctly.
05-23-2009, 07:11 PM
Stacks

Assuming we c/r the flop, and he calls, on this turn I'm still trying to get the money in. He's very likely to still felt his overpairs with a diamond, and there shouldn't be too many flush draws in his range anyways (AdKd, AdQd, maybe KdQd, but doubt it). Whether it's by making a committing sized bet and calling a shove, or shoving ourselves, I'm not sure.. Too lazy to add up the pot + bet sizes :(
05-23-2009, 07:57 PM
badgers

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfguy37

I would have just flat called and hoped to make a full house on the river. I think you played it correctly.

:facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:
05-24-2009, 06:45 AM
Da GOAT

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcatdog

I can't even imagine a worse type of opponent to lead a flopped set against.

this +1
05-24-2009, 09:04 AM
golfguy37

Quote:

Originally Posted by badgers

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfguy37

I would have just flat called and hoped to make a full house on the river. I think you played it correctly.

:facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:

What? What would you have done?
05-24-2009, 10:02 AM
badgers

c/r flop ldo
05-24-2009, 11:57 AM
ATOTHEC101

Quote:

Originally Posted by badgers

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfguy37

I would have just flat called and hoped to make a full house on the river. I think you played it correctly.

:facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm: :facepalm:

qft but also because I enjoy looking at multiple face palm emoticons.
05-24-2009, 06:06 PM
golfguy37

lol, so you agree with me?
05-24-2009, 06:56 PM
badgers

as played yes obviously call turn >> shove or something, but "I think you played it correctly" ignores the rather large mistake on the flop.... Also your earlier comment that he should have bet more on the flop implies that you agree with leading here instead of c/r, hence multiple facepalmage.