1/2 - AA deep vs. likely bad player

Villain (SB) is running 21/15/2.2 over a decent sample. Folds SB to steal 80%, 3bets from the SB 6%. Donks 11% and check/raises flops 5%. (MP is a big fish, playing 60/32, every pfr is a minraise and I've been 3betting to $16 to isolate a lot.)

Relevant hand vs. villain a few orbits before, same pre-flop action except fish MP called pre. Flop came Kc5c2s, villain check/called a 3/4 pot bet, turn Ah, he check/called a 1/2 pot, river 9h, villain checked, I bet $100 into $230, villain timed down and folded.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($350.15)
Hero (Button) ($517)
SB ($400)
BB ($341.20)
UTG ($200)
MP ($922.40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
1 fold, MP bets $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $16, SB calls $15, 2 folds

Flop: ($38) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $28, SB raises to $92, Hero...

I'd call and stick it in on the turn.

My biggest concern is that he's on scared money and would pot control Kx.

It's a horrible spot considering his AF and 'Folds SB to steal' stat.

I personally think we're crushed here, 88 or TT being my main concern.

Like Fnord said, I think he'd just flat with Kx.

I fold.

since MP is a fish then he can have all PPs and AJ+ right. Discount AA and KK though but he may just call AK.

when he raises flop its 88,TT or AK right. if he has all AK hands in his range on flop then you are a 50.2% favourite lol. So just call flop and stack off turn i guess OR just fold if u think he 4bets AKo more often.

not even close, fold.

ez fold, this is always 1010/88.

If he's any good he's flatting AK/KK/TT here a lot pre-flop as well...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101

ez fold, this is always 1010/88.

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Standard situation and I would agree that this is TT 80% of the time. But does anyone else think this read makes SB's range much wider: "MP is a big fish, playing 60/32, every pfr is a minraise and I've been 3betting to $16 to isolate a lot."
I would consider more than just sets here. Is this guy a multi tabling bot or is he capable of adjusting? Would he adjust properly or just open his calling range? That's a couple things that would make this easier.

I don't know if 'folds sb to steal' is relevant here. This is not really a steal.

Also, the bet sizing is odd. If he wants to get it in on the turn a slightly bigger bet would make a lot more sense.

edit: even raising to like 76ish would allow us to get it in on 3 streets.

Just a note in general, these spots seem to be increasingly better to run plays w/ hands like QJ in villains shoes IMO as the trend now is to assume this is always a made hand better than aces.

That being said I agree it's a simple fold here, but just something to think about in the future if you are up against an opponent who understands these current trends and ways to exploit them.

Good point Marshall. But I assume most people still call alot of their stack off here