Preflop shove or muck?

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($200)
BB ($203)
UTG ($450.45)
MP ($232.90)
CO ($182.95)
Hero (Button) ($321.40)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
UTG bets $10, 2 folds, Hero calls $10, SB raises $35, 2 folds

Total pot: $32

This may seem like a trivial decision, but I honestly think that it could be a fold...

UTG is only opening 7% Kapie is SB and at worst has AK/QQ+ here, I think he basically never has JJ or a bluff. Does that make this a fold?

ehhh I probs just call and see a flop seeing as we have position and a very strong hand that is behind his 5 bet shoving range, I don't think folding is terrible though.

I agree SB wouldnt bluff a lot here against UTG. But we still have 42% equity against SB's range w AKs. I assume UTG has folded already.

I think it's a call, because against his range we have no fold equity, like AtotheC says. And we're in position

U can fold sure, too many ppl get attached to AK

Yeah, I think calling seems good.

I don't know 1/2 regs by name but holy shit I shove fast

folding here doesn't seem to be bad at all given reads.
You're giving him a range of 3xAA, 3xAK, 6xQQ, 9xAK that is weighted towards the strong end of things. Calling is bad cos you are likely to be unhappy with any flop...

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Originally Posted by iopq

I don't know 1/2 regs by name but holy shit I shove fast

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I think this is a leak that I need to plug. I auto-shove AK way too much without looking at the details of the hand so far.

OP, if you are confident in your reads, then I'd go with the fold.

Need to know more about how game flow is going tbh. But most likely I'd still fold.

Unless you got some sort of timing tell or raise size tell id shove.

If your really have 42% equity against a range of QQ+, AK and your absolutely positive that is his range, then its still incredibly close, to the point where I think you have to take into consideration the fact that he may have JJ some small % of the time or some sort of bluff or AQ or something some very small % of the time.

this is way closer to a shove than most of you are saying. Its def. a high variance spot, but a shove i think. Even if villains 3bet is strong because of an UTG opener, it's still a squeeze spot, and in the 1/2 games i'm used to people are def. doing this wider than QQ+/AK. And as ISF said, even if he throws in JJ or a complete bluff some small % of the time, i think this is a +EV spot to shove. Even nitty villains bluff, and he knows since he's squeezing vs an UTG opener that he will look strong and could be taking advantage of this.

I sure have learned a lot on FTR in the past two days ... like I apparently don't shove near enough. Being that it is 6 handed I don't think I can get away from this hand pre flop. I'd flat call and take advantage of position. Maybe an EV- play but you can't play 6 handed scared (IMO).

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Originally Posted by DaGrinch

I sure have learned a lot on FTR in the past two days ... like I apparently don't shove near enough. Being that it is 6 handed I don't think I can get away from this hand pre flop. I'd flat call and take advantage of position. Maybe an EV- play but you can't play 6 handed scared (IMO).

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Yes, but there are some spots where A-K is not the nuts, even in 6-max. It may be right to shove in this spot, but it's not obviously right.

42% vs QQ+,AKs,AKo

43% vs JJ+,AKs,AKo (this is ALL JJ holdings)

46% vs JJ+,AKs,AKo,A2s (again all JJ and A2s as the random decent
bluff)

So I fold unless someone does a calc to show based on odds etc that its +EV

im bad at EV equations, but i think we would have to be 46%. we are risking $190 to win $220, which we need to win 46% of the time. I think given some FE its a profitable shove.

UTG is a donk who raised 5x. Many (probably most) regs in the BB would NEVER 3bet such a player without JJ+ AK, maybe not even JJ. Why do people think we have any FE?

id very much doubt we have any FE, im in the folding section of this thread btw mcat

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

UTG is a donk who raised 5x. Many (probably most) regs in the BB would NEVER 3bet such a player without JJ+ AK, maybe not even JJ. Why do people think we have any FE?

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I don't play at 1/2 but at NL100 that's basically not true, you'll shove and you'll get folds

Maybe it's people like Robb who are 3bing their AJo or something, idk, or maybe a badly-timed bluff. It could be that 100NL regs suck just a little bit more and are not really comfortable playing for stacks PF with less than QQ+,AK but will put in lots of 3bs because they read on 2p2 that it's a good thing. I mean I don't know this player so I don't know why he would only have QQ+,AK every time here.

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Originally Posted by iopq

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mcatdog

UTG is a donk who raised 5x. Many (probably most) regs in the BB would NEVER 3bet such a player without JJ+ AK, maybe not even JJ. Why do people think we have any FE?

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I don't play at 1/2 but at NL100 that's basically not true, you'll shove and you'll get folds

Maybe it's people like Robb who are 3bing their AJo or something, idk, or maybe a badly-timed bluff. It could be that 100NL regs suck just a little bit more and are not really comfortable playing for stacks PF with less than QQ+,AK but will put in lots of 3bs because they read on 2p2 that it's a good thing. I mean I don't know this player so I don't know why he would only have QQ+,AK every time here.

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agreed. maybe marshall has a watertight read on this guy, but there are plenty of 1/2 regs i play against that squeeze here just because they have an opportunity.

and utg donk raising to 5x is supposed to be scary or something, i dont get it. Some donks minraise, some open raise any position to 7x.