400nl, 200bbs deep, I flop the world and get action.

villain is MyNameIsBusto, i have him at 23/17/2 over 2k. hes a pretty solid player imo, maybe a little spewy at times though and can call down pretty light in situations where what hes facing is just never a bluff...
we dont have any particular history to note, tho the only relevant notes i have on him is that he has flatted sets on drawy flops before in multi-way pots and that he can peel flops pretty light.

he should view me as generic if agro tag, dont think i have shown down any hands to him that will affect this one.

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players


Hero (UTG): $1230.40
MP: $955.10
CO: $806.00
BTN: $704.60
SB: $406.90
BB: $753.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is UTG with :9h: :th:

Hero raises to $14, 1 fold, CO calls $14, 3 folds



Flop: ($34.00) :7c: :8h: :jh: (2 players)

Hero bets $28, CO raises to $70, Hero raises to $220, CO requests TIME, CO calls $150



Turn: ($440.00) :8s: (2 players)

Hero wonders wtf to do, CO has $572 left.


My thoughts are as follows, 8 is the worst card in the deck for us, he's credibly repped 77,78,88, j8, jj thus far, I have the main blockers to all combo draws, only hands I realistically beat at this point are large heart combos.

So whats the best turn line? C/fing seems horribly weak, whilst bet/folding say $185 feels like burning money and if he just flats we have to c/f the river unless we bink the 2 outer, thoughts?

Pretty gross spot... I mean I don't think we can do anything here but bet and call it off and spike a 7h or Qh on the river if we need it.

270 and call it off.. sucks though..

Flop re-raise was too small, should have left youself just enough for a turn push.

Why would villain slowplay a set on this flop?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mixchange

Why would villain slowplay a set on this flop?

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Because I'm not getting anything worse than 88 in on this flop 200 deep without any form of dynamic. Flatting conceals his hand so he can either bomb over big turn bets on blanks or fold if a terrible card rolls off.

Check, and pray it checks down, but if he bets fold. He doesn't have T9, he's rarely getting to the turn without two pair (and even he does you have no value in betting), and you have two outs.

Good reads now trust em!

You cant make a very big mistake whatever you do. I would probably c/f turn and probably c/c non-heart river. I would c/f heart river.

griffy bet/calling this turn seems like the worst advice ive seen on here in a while. i dont think there is any line for us but a c/f here. there are just so few hands we beat that are getting it in on this turn.

for everyone saying c/f, say we have 77/88/JJ, what's our turn line?

probably tough to answer b/c we may not 3bet flop, but I'm interested in your turn line had we taken the same bet-sizing with sets on the flop.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bode

griffy bet/calling this turn seems like the worst advice ive seen on here in a while. i dont think there is any line for us but a c/f here. there are just so few hands we beat that are getting it in on this turn.

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I guess I'm not as convinced as everyone else that he's so strong here... based on the fact that its an apparent 'strong reg', who's practically min raising 200 bb's deep on a draw central board.

His flop raise size is pretty lame as far as I'm concerned (given board and stacks), and on such a board feels more like some weird 89/JT/Jx type hand than it does a set necessarily.

We're certainly not b/f given the price once we bet.... so its not a question between b/c, b/f or checking. Its between betting or checking.

I don't think he's as strong as everyone else thinks, so I'd bet here vs what I feel is a marginal hand that has equity.

I can fully see why ppl want to check though, and If I did check and it checked through turn, I agree with P4's that I'd be tempted to c/c a non-heart riv.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Flop re-raise was too small, should have left youself just enough for a turn push.

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no... raising bigger than this would be pretty terrible

I think I like a check/fold too.. and c/c non-heart river

if we had 77/88/JJ maybe super small turn bet or check

i think his most likely hand is a FD, followed by 78, then sets. Once he checks turn we can pretty safely c/c any non-heart river, but I wouldn't expect him to bet turn with AhXh so id fold if he does bet

cf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fnord

Flop re-raise was too small, should have left youself just enough for a turn push.

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I disagree with this in this specific type of spot for two reasons.

1. I highly doubt opp is raising light, to the point here I would never rebluff here.
2. Therefore, there is no reason to leave any bluff possibilities in our range, I think raising bigger reps the weakest possible hand so I think this was played fine.

Yeah you should just c/f. If he checks behind hmmmm bet like half pot on river maybe. 8 ginned his range its kinda gay.

That said, a slightly bigger raise gives us exactly one bet behind. So it's not so much about balancing this re-raise size accross a range of hands you're likely to play (unless 200bb is common for you.) It's a matter of do you want 1 or 2 bets behind.