river straight on paired flushy board

Villain seems fishy and 59-6 over 20 hands. He's folded to 1/5 c-bets so far. When he calls the cbet I put him on some weak ace most likely, check turn behind supports that. River is nice, but the board is paired and i'd like the jack better if it wasn't a diamond. Thoughts on line?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($106.76)
CO ($134.63)
UTG ($130.64)
Hero (BB) ($100)
MP ($100)
SB ($167.01)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif
3 folds, Button calls $1, SB calls $0.50, Hero bets $4, Button calls $4, 1 fold

Flop: ($11) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $8, Button calls $8

Turn: ($27) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($27) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $18,

I guess the only interesting part about this hand is what we do against a river raise.

make it 5 or 5.5 pre vs the feesh. bet more on river

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

I guess the only interesting part about this hand is what we do against a river raise.

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ok, here it is

River: ($27) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $18,Button raises $40,

Quote:

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Originally Posted by daven

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

I guess the only interesting part about this hand is what we do against a river raise.

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ok, here it is

River: ($27) Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $18,Button raises $40,

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I don't think this guy is raising a lot of money without the nuts....especially on the river. GF!



I'm assuming you folded...

So, I stoved it and figured out that the only flush it makes sense for him to have is KdQd
if you think he's raising any trip combination you should call down:
Board: 2d Ac Ts Th Jh

Hand 0: 41.250% { KhQs }
Hand 1: 58.750% { JJ-TT, 22, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs, JTs, ATo, KQo, KTo, QTo, JTo }

obviously if he just flats trips we crushed:
Board: 2d Ac Ts Th Jh

Hand 0: 16.071% { KhQs }
Hand 1: 83.929% { JJ-TT, 22, ATs, KQs, JTs, ATo, KQo, JTo }

but bad players generally don't have any idea about relative hand strength and trip tens just "looks" strong so I'd call it down and expect to be behind, but getting the right odds to call

(22 into 107 we are almost getting odds to call if he never raises trips, expecting to split with straights)

easiet fold ever, iopq the guys most likely holding is ax d's, followed by kq d's, followed by boats.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101

easiet fold ever, iopq the guys most likely holding is ax d's, followed by kq d's, followed by boats.

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we can only fold if he never raises trips ever here and never raises KQo here
we only need 20.5% equity here to call

I think we pay him off
we only have 20 hands on him, we don't really have a read that he flats a straight on the river here, I think a lot of fish get overly excited with a straight or trips