200NL: AJo top pair

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06-23-2009, 11:22 AM
d0zer

200NL: AJo top pair

Villain 19/12 over 100 and hasn't been seen 3-betting yet.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Azimut85 ($686.25)
UTG+1 Hero ($203.00)
CO funkeemonkee ($209.00)
BTN .TilTandWiN. ($200.00)
SB famou$_$oon ($673.40)
BB xavieret01 ($386.45)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 :ah: :jc:
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, .TilTandWiN. calls $6, famou$_$oon calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: :8s: :as: :3h: ($20, 3 players)
famou$_$oon checks, Hero bets $14, .TilTandWiN. calls $14, famou$_$oon folds

Turn: :6d: ($48, 2 players)
Hero bets $26, .TilTandWiN. calls $26

River: :7h: ($100, 2 players)
Hero checks, [color=#cc0000].TilTandWiN. bets $64 Hero .?

Seems like there aren't enough busted draws in his range to justify a call and he's never got a worse ace so...ez fold?

Thoughts on the turn bet / sizing?
06-23-2009, 12:40 PM
ATOTHEC101

Whole hand looks fine to me, now fold.
06-23-2009, 01:10 PM
bode

i b/f river against most, but this guys too tight. c/f all day.
06-23-2009, 06:44 PM

who likes c/c turn?
06-23-2009, 09:25 PM
mixchange

I don't expect people to float in 3 way pots, so we have to bet this turn to get value from weaker aces and draws.

Villain being 19/12 I'd fold expecting him to show up with AQ/AK or 2p. You beat 2 aces that would check behind, and busted flush draws... so the question is, how often is a 19/12 player flatting a flush draw for 2 streets and then bluffing the river when they whiff? Almost none, almost never. I fold
06-23-2009, 09:31 PM
Alexos

shove.. he'll prolly fold AQ
06-23-2009, 10:08 PM
mixchange

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alexos

shove.. he'll prolly fold AQ

\

sick...

so you think he doesn't have much Ax range OTB?
06-24-2009, 01:30 AM
meeloche

I wouldn't mind seeing a aggression factor before I c/f here. Cause I think I always would call here if I checked. Usually its a bet though for me.
06-24-2009, 01:37 AM
dsaxton

He almost always has A-Q or some slow-played hand, but usually A-Q. Check-shoving may actually be best here, but I would probably just chicken out and check-fold.
06-24-2009, 02:32 AM
RugbyDonk

just c/f
06-24-2009, 03:54 AM
Marshall28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alexos

shove.. he'll prolly fold AQ

My first thought
06-24-2009, 06:05 PM
Da GOAT

i dunno if opps can fold to a c/r tho. i do like it tho
06-24-2009, 07:04 PM
mixchange

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marshall28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alexos

shove.. he'll prolly fold AQ

My first thought

Can you explain? I'd be too worried about Ax range hitting 2p, he is OTB
06-25-2009, 05:11 AM
Marshall28

Quote:

Originally Posted by mixchange

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marshall28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alexos

shove.. he'll prolly fold AQ

My first thought

Can you explain? I'd be too worried about Ax range hitting 2p, he is OTB

He's playing 19/12.... Therefore A9/A8/A6 are not in his flatting range.

Sure maybe you could say they are, but if they are its a small fraction of the time.

This added to the fact that your opponent is making a bet that looks like thin value.

Only question you end up asking yourself is, is villain bad enough to just be retarded and call off AQ anyways? I know I shove here and they call occasionally w/ it.