set vs flush?

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07-02-2009, 01:57 PM
Keith

set vs flush?

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG QuailDaddy17 ($2.30)
CO Hero ($21.55)
BTN catje pronk ($4.95)
SB Marcio-Milet ($3.40)
BB BoFu25 ($14.35)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is CO :9h: :9c:
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, catje pronk calls $0.40, Marcio-Milet calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: :9s: :2d: :7s: ($1.30, 3 players)
Marcio-Milet checks, Hero bets $0.70, catje pronk calls $0.70, Marcio-Milet folds

Turn: :qs: ($2.70, 2 players)
Hero bets $1, catje pronk goes all-in $3.85, Hero ???

This was against a 36/20/1 . I'm kicking myself for trying to be cute and not betting the flop for at least a 1$ to try and keep worse hands in betting more on the flop and more on the turn would have probably have made the shove an easy call. I've seen her check call down a K3s flopped flush draw that missed and go all in on a TPTK hand on the turn. This is a hand i really need to work some maths on . I hit my set and turn bet is reraised when a flush came in. I took that to mean that she had the flush......could just have had a strong flush draw or possibly even paired the Queen. need to work out whether it would pay to stay in and see if I can boat up.
11 cards for boat on river so 11/46 so 23% of hitting boat on the river.
I would be calling 2.85 to win a pot of 10.40 or 27.4 which would be tight fold unless we factor in some Qx hands.
or should i be calculating putting 2.85 in to win the 7.55 already in the pot 37% easy fold.

Is it reasonable to factor in any TPTK type hands here , but I don't think she'd have reraised her flush draws from the way she played the other hands.
07-02-2009, 02:03 PM

why are you betting $1 on the turn just to fold
that's terrible hand planning
if you think a shove is a flush, just c/f the turn
if you think you have to call a shove, go ahead and bet/call $2

but seriously if you fold this I'll kick you in the nuts
07-02-2009, 02:11 PM
sarbox68

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

if you fold this I'll kick you in the nuts

... which a Q on the River would almost give him! :shock:
07-02-2009, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sarbox68

Quote:

Originally Posted by iopq

if you fold this I'll kick you in the nuts

... which a Q on the River would almost give him! :shock:

I'll kick him in the bigger nuts the 9 on the river would give him
07-02-2009, 02:22 PM
Sasquach991

Re: set vs flush?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith_MM

and go all in on a TPTK hand on the turn.

Look familiar?
07-02-2009, 02:35 PM
surviva316

Re: set vs flush?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sasquach991

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith_MM

and go all in on a TPTK hand on the turn.

Look familiar?

lol yeah your reads don't match your analysis at all. why are you betting 1/2 PSB with the read of villain calling down 3 streets w an FD? just push the pot button.
07-02-2009, 02:39 PM
Keith

plan was 1$ on the turn to leave a 4.70 pot and her on 2.85 and then get her all in on the turn but if she shoved she had the flush and I was likely behind and could get away relatively cheaply. I currently have some very sore nuts cos I folded and its only whilst reviewing my session that I was wondering about whether I should have called the shove.
its all down to whether I should be factoring any Qx hands shoving with 3 flush cards on the board. Two flush cards and I'd have insta called.
07-02-2009, 03:58 PM
Parasurama

You're getting 2.6:1 so you only need ~28% equity. You have 10 outs against a flush so you already have ~22%. Even if his range is mostly flushes if he's like ever shoving anything else, it's a snapcall.