deepish river bluff vs solid reg

Villain is a winning 5/10 regular with stats in the neighborhood of 26/20. We don't really have any relevant history.

Note: The blinds are both fish that are not squeeze happy.

Thoughts?

No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (UTG) ($1903.25)
MP ($1050)
CO ($1937)
Button ($1806.50)
SB ($1038.50)
BB ($1254)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif
Hero bets $35, 2 folds, Button calls $35, 2 folds

Flop: ($85) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, 5http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $60, Button calls $60

Turn: ($205) Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $170, Button calls $170

River: ($545) Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $240, Hero raises $888

I like this... but only with a good image and knowing he's capable of folding

I feel like this is AQ/AJ a lot. I think its an interesting range spot because he can have a lot of hands that he will bet/call thats worse on the river when we check, like AQ-ATs, AK sometimes if they are nitty. But I doubt he bets like tt-66. I think c/r anything im planning on continuing with is good and c/f the rest is the best line.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I feel like this is AQ/AJ a lot. I think its an interesting range spot because he can have a lot of hands that he will bet/call thats worse on the river when we check, like AQ-ATs, AK sometimes if they are nitty.

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You realize we have two pair, aces and queens right?

Meeloche - I think for this bluff to be good he has to be both not 3-betting AK preflop, and bet-folding it on this river. Otherwise there just aren't enough trips in his range that he could conceivably bet-fold to make up for the times he snaps you off with a boat. Both of those assumptions about how he plays AK, both seem somewhat unlikely to me, and for them to both be true is a huge stretch.

Personally I get FPS pretty often and try to bluff regs when their hand is face up as a pretty big hand that isn't the nuts but I think this is a really bad spot for it. I'd just check-fold.

I feel like people flat suited aces on the button, even to an UTG open....

I could be mistaken though. I know I'm flatting some/ a lot of suited aces here, though that may be spew in itself.

Yea the answer to this question is two ways, how many Ax hands does he play on the BTN (more is better) meaning he'd have less boats in his range. And 2), whats the likelihood of him folding them (well mostly AJ/AT)?

If he's a nit that will play only AJ+ to an utg raise, then this is obv bad because he only folds .. AJ in this spot.

I feel like he can definitely have AK here along with a decent amount of suited aces.

I also expect him not to put very many if any bluffs in my range once I c/r the river.

I also think his sizing is interesting. I don't think he's betting smallish to induce so is his betsize related to the strength of his hand or how how weakish my hand looks?

I think I would check this turn, he doesn't have much air he can fold and lots of the hands that will call you (99 etc) will let you see the river for free. They also might fold the river once they check back because you can rep 99-KK pretty well

As for the river, if he has like A6s it's a nasty spot for him all right but just off the top of my head I feel like the ratio of hands that call vs hands that will fold is too big.

His bet looks a lot like he wants to give you an opportunity to bluff, so I'm not terribly happy with the raise. You would probably c/r with the nuts here a lot so can't say it's bad either.

this is really bad poker. your range for c/r the river here unless he is way loose preflop is exactly AQ and bluffs, and your perceived range for check-calling in this spot is nonexistant. most players are going to understand this somewhat and frequently call you whether theyve got a nut hand or just trips after deciding on a bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nutsinho

this is really bad poker. your range for c/r the river here unless he is way loose preflop is exactly AQ and bluffs, and your perceived range for check-calling in this spot is nonexistant. most players are going to understand this somewhat and frequently call you whether theyve got a nut hand or just trips after deciding on a bet.

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so hes never c/c this river and his c/r is the nuts or air. so hes basically only ever c/f this river. so you dislike the turn barrel im assuming? if so what is your alternate turn line?

I would dislike barrelling the turn because whatever he calls the flop with he probably calls the turn with

if he thinks we have tons of aces in our range and that we cbet QQ/KK he should really just fold flop with like TT
but if he calls with TT he shouldn't be discouraged with the turn card since it knocked out a lot of ace combinations and we should check our QQ/KK back because there is no way we're getting three streets of value

u gotta bet the turn, river is trying too hard

I agree that your value range is too narrow for this bluff to work.