1/2 QQ oop facing pot river bet

Pyhtheas is 55/5/3.2 with 6.0 river aggression (15 river hands)

I felt checking the flop was OK because he never folds to cbets and he raises a lot of cbets. on turn i thought a lot of hands can call me with pairs&draws etc so i lead. what do we make of this turn minraise? like a discussion yesterday it seems this would NOT be called a belluga. I also hav an OESD so i gotta call and see a river.

river comes total blank. im not sure leading is great on this river because really if he was bluffing he'll fold, and he's not calling that often with Jx i think, more likely if i bet this river and get called I'm beat. If he was bluff raising the turn i can bluff catch by calling here - right?

the problem is his bet is huge. HOW do you decide if you call this or fold?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG philoudiving ($55.00)
CO Hero ($212.60)
BTN Pyhtheas ($188.75)
SB -MAGICK- ($224.60)
BB Belagiomio ($304.85)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO :qh: :qd:
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, Pyhtheas calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: :kd: :8s: :jc: ($15, 2 players)
Hero checks, Pyhtheas checks

Turn: :ts: ($15, 2 players)
Hero bets $14, Pyhtheas raises to $28, Hero calls $14

River: :3c: ($71, 2 players)
Hero checks, Pyhtheas bets $71

Final Pot: $142

On the turn, that board is so action heavy that I don't think he is ever bluffing. You are calling strictly for OESD (and potentially 2p) outs. You can't call here with 2nd pair and think 'well im inducing' -- there are soooo many combos here he can have.

also, think about his line -- why would he check the flop when you are the PFR and then bluff the turn small? either he flopped some kind of nutty hand on the flop and wants you to catch up, or he didn't have anything and the 10 on the turn gave him a nutty hand. His air hands would bluff the flop when you check, if he's really interested in bluffing in the hand.

Should turn be a bet or a c/c?

guy has the nuts according to his turn bet
then he has the nuts again, according to his river bet

probably fold turn, definitely fold river

also, bet flop. this seems to be a pattern with you.

if i bet flop, do I fold to any raise because i'm oop?
if i bet flop and get called, do i barrel the turn small and then perhaps bluff-catch a small enough river bet if i check river?

how would this go down if you played it perfectly?

RENTON: already you're saying i have a big leak, checking flops which I think suck (hands like QQ/KK on boards that contain an over card etc) - I guess I'm doing this because I hate cbetting these spots and then having to fold to a raise (isn't that super exploitable?)
how would you like me to play these hands?

people are raising you enough on the flop? you're not playing 5/10

aren't you cbetting those boards with air? if so, why are you like c/fing (I assume) with a better hand?

because he has showdown value here & doesn't want to build a big pot.

My question is: Do you think a guy that plays 55/5 has the ability to realize that your flop check means you can be barreled off a turn bet and would he do so with this line?

I also have no problem c/c'ing the turn once we turned some equity and I don't think we're betting him off of a better hand or getting called by worse on this board.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bspahn

Pyhtheas is 55/5/3.2 ........ he never folds to cbets and he raises a lot of cbets.

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How in the world does this description of villain lead to NOTTT cbetting flop exactly?

He never folds to cbets = he calls with worse a ton
He raises a lot of cbets = he's raising light and BS, so we call him and let him keep bluffing.

explain to me why we're not cbetting?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by griffey24

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bspahn

Pyhtheas is 55/5/3.2 ........ he never folds to cbets and he raises a lot of cbets.

---

How in the world does this description of villain lead to NOTTT cbetting flop exactly?

He never folds to cbets = he calls with worse a ton
He raises a lot of cbets = he's raising light and BS, so we call him and let him keep bluffing.

explain to me why we're not cbetting?

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This too, flop bet is mandatory

This kind of stuff is where I think you are being too fancy. Try playing more straightforward when you have value hands on flop. You must be missing a lot of value on your good hands considering you always want to check them, avoiding value if he has worse and then also letting him catch up.

thanks guys.
i guess i just havent been able to figure this out on my own but everything you guys are saying makes perfect sense. if i'm bluffing here with missed hands i should indeed be cbetting with a hand as good as 2nd pair here.
i guess ive just often had this syndrome of raising hands and then going ah crap i hate this flop and kinda wanting to give up. this is MOSTLY oop and i know poker tends to be v difficult oop in general, but i do see there's still lots of value here.

(and yes he did FLOP the monster, set of K's)