1/2 AK facing river lead

opp is REG 24/19/2.3

I guess i'm just a POW here and this should be a clear fold? how do you generally interpret these sorts of plays, basically they surprise and confuse me and I end up calling too often here.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Charlotte83 ($234.60)
CO PREDATOR1986 ($386.65)
BTN Hero ($407.00)
SB -maldoror- ($197.80)
BB Big-gum ($234.85)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BTN :kd: :ah:
2 folds, Hero raises to $6, -maldoror- calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: :as: :tc: :9h: ($14, 2 players)
-maldoror- checks, Hero bets $10, -maldoror- calls $10

Turn: :3s: ($34, 2 players)
-maldoror- checks, Hero bets $25, -maldoror- calls $25

River: :4s: ($84, 2 players)
-maldoror- bets $52, Hero calls $52

Final Pot: $188

the classic river pause, bet a large amount is almost always the nuts. but it really depends on how he times it for me, kinda a feel thing in the moment. I fold some insane hands to this river lead/timing tell.

what kind of read would you need on opp to shove this river?

most of you prob fold to the river lead right?

Raising the river is dire.

I mean if you have seen him lead hands like missed straight draws then just call, because you are never ever getting called by worse when you raise the river. if he is bluffing call and win.
I mean most of the time when people lead the river like this they are very strong and it would be mental to think you could get them to fold a flush or trips etc.

being results oriented I suppose, he had A4 for a rivered 2 pair and that's probably the ONLY hand he MIGHT fold to a shove (putting me on set/2pr/flush etc

He often puts you on AK, they all do.
I doubt he'd fold A4 but who knows.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bspahn

what kind of read would you need on opp to shove this river?

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Raising this river is out of control I think. He's completely polarized in this spot to mostly BD flushes and missed draws/weak hands of some sort and a jam is rarely ever folding out a better hand that takes this line.

but you're still calling this most of the time or do you think it leans much more towards something big that has us crushed and we should just let it go UNLESS we have a read that opp tries bluffing rivers a lot?

Although in the long run vs good regs etc you can be exploited, vs a fish you can fold comfortably a lot I find.