50NL deep with JTs

Villain was 26/21 with a sb 3b of 12% (300 hands), my image is laggish

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($129.05)
BB ($53.60)
UTG ($51.25)
MP ($50)
CO ($49.95)
Hero (Button) ($99.90)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif
1 fold, MP bets $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, SB raises to $6, 1 fold, MP calls $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

Flop: ($18.50) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (3 players)
SB bets $14.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $14.50

Turn: ($47.50) 10http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif (2 players)
SB bets $32, Hero raises to $79.40 (All-In)

you have little to no FE here.

I'm OK with this. I agree we have very little FE, but villain doesn't have to fold this very often to make this BE and we are going to have trouble extracting more if we hit 1/2 our outs anyway.

After viewing this again, I guess the turn is a call if any of our outs are dirty. I can't believe how much the FE% required jumps if any of our outs are dirty. If 1.5 outs are dirty FE needed jumps from 9% to 17%.

just get it in on the flop
we need him to fold very little for it to be BE since the pot is so big PF and his cbet is so large

With the money behind, you definitely have implied odds here to just flat the turn. I don't see much point to the turn shove.

raising the flop would be really bad, since only 77/22 make sense for made hands.

ur turn shove has very little fold equity given board/remaining stacks... considering the size of the turn bet and how little is left in your stack for the river, you probably need to get called every time to make a profit on this draw if u called the turn. i wouldn't expect that to happen.

shoving the turn <<< call << fold

calling or folding this turn seems close.

Folding is probably even fine sometimes, given the reverse implied odds on some of our two pair/trips outs.

read griffey's post after i posted, so this time i opened up pokerstove...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,408 games 0.005 secs 281,600 games/sec

Board: Ts 2s Qh 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.611% 30.61% 00.00% 431 0.00 { JhTh }
Hand 1: 69.389% 69.39% 00.00% 977 0.00 { QQ+, 77, AhKh, AsKs, AQs, AQo }


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it's anywhere from 28-31% equity vs SB's range, so with implied odds a call would be better than folding.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

raising the flop would be really bad, since only 77/22 make sense for made hands.

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I tend to show up with AQ/KQ here a lot
but you might be right because I get called by like TT here a lot too for the reason you posted

call turn, possibly fold flop

Maybe I'm being results-oriented because villain folded but I felt like there was a good amount of FE on my shove. But if you're in his shoes do you just snap-call with AA/KK/AQ? I realize he's put half his stack in but my raise is almost 100bb and he's got me covered.

Another more interesting question is what do you think his betsizing means? People normally bet less in relation to the pot size in 3b pots, is his increased betting an adjustment to being deep, in which case I should give him credit for the value range he's repping, or is it indicative of weakness?

I realize the answer varies depending on opponents but against a LAG at 50NL? The reason I shoved is because I thought he *might* fold an overpair/AQ and because his betsizing made me believe AK was definitely in his range.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Parasurama

Another more interesting question is what do you think his betsizing means?

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It didn't look like he planned on folding. He bet large into two people after squeezing pre with a loose 3bet image then barreled the turn hard after the deep guy (you) called looking like he was pricing you in for a river shove.

oh I thought this was 100NL 100BB stacks
ignore everything I said

call turn fold river unimproved