when betting is better than calling

just looking for some input on my figuring here, whether i made some errors and if theres a simplified equation to use on the fly that works for some of yous...

lets say its folded to a 22/16/2.5 reg who steals from the sb 22%

50nl, sb raises $2, we raises to $7 w/JThearts sb calls.
sb leads $10 ($14) on a 2d7h8h flop and we call
pot is $34. turn comes 2d7h8hkc

forget whether we should have raised flop, this is about the difference in profitability between 2 specific plays.

lets say for this example as well that we can sould read villain and we know he is checking his entire range on the turn, and we also know that we need the str or flush to beat his hand... and we only have 2 options... shove or check to see river.

we will also say that if the river hits us villain is check/folding.
so, we have 26% equity on the turn with 12 outs against villains, and we have the option to take a FREE card with 12 outs.

so we river a str, and take down the pot 26% of the time, which works out to $8.84 per hand (lose 74% of the time)
cost = 0 and we win an average of $8.84/hand

now in the case of a shove with 26% equity, ($33 into $34)
my math is showing the following avg profit in accordance with fold equity:

FE
5% - -$3.53
10% - -$1.55
Checking turn - $8.84
15% - $0.43
25% - $4.38
40% - $10.30
50% - $14.25
75% - $24.13


for this example we will also assume that villain never folds a blank river.

so clearly we have a choice between 2 +ev plays, but simple Fold Equity can make a huge difference in the most profitable of the 2 +ev plays.

PF is too big and I don't like the hand selection

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bigspenda73

PF is too big and I don't like the hand selection

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the hand doesnt matter, reads, plays etc.. dont matter.

its simply the differences between shoving turn or checking and what level of fold equity we need to make the decision...

ps: fixed numbers

Just want to start by pointing out that while your assumptions could occur, it probably isn't going to occur all that often. That is you have him folding some of the time on the turn, whereas if we get to the river he check/folds everytime we hit, and check/calls if we miss. This probably won't occur exactly, but no worries.

I agree that checking behind, using your assumptions, has an EV of $8.84 if we have 26% equity against his hand. It would be higher if we sometimes get paid off when we hit the river, or if we could profitably bluff shove the river some of the time.

To find the needed fold equity to have a BE turn shove we use the formula:

EVshove = (%Fold)(EVFold) + (%Call)(EVCall)
0 = (x)(34) + (1 - x)[(0.26)(34 + 33 + 33) - (33)]
0 = 34x + (1 - x)(-7)
0 = 34x - 7 + 7x
7 = 41x
x = 7/41 = 17.1%

So unless my math is incorrect, a shove on the turn having 26% equity when called would need 17.1% fold equity to be BE.

To see the needed fold equity for a turn shove to be = to checking back the turn (assuming your assumptions that we never get paid when we hit, and can't bluff river), we do the same setting it equal to $8.84:

8.84 = 34x - 7 + 7x
15.84 = 41x
x = 15.84/41 = 38.6%

So if villain folds 38.6% of the time, then the EV between a turn shove, and checking behind the turn is approx. the same ($8.84). If he folds more than this, then a turn shove is better than checking behind. If he folds less, then a turn check becomes better.

i like the thread. I cant seem to get your numbers though. Only reason this matters is because I'd like to see how often we need villain to fold ourselves indifferent to either option.

@ stax, ya those are the numbers i got. ty.