100NL Marginal hand vs polarized range

Well i don't always play my hand like this but the guy had such a high fold to CB stat 80% so i though there is more value in turning my hand into a bluff catcher.

Villian is 20/14/3 over 270 hands


Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $116.50
UTG: $80.45
MP: $181.50
Hero (CO): $174.40
BTN: $226.15
SB: $105.80

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with T:spade: K:diamond:
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) J:heart: J:club: K:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 2:diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $13.50, Hero calls $13.50

River: ($44.50) 6:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $27.50, Hero ??

fold river because a lot of the time people will give up with their draws on the river
also, if he has a high fold to cbet that just means he flops hands and bets them
so that might even suggest fold turn

I tend to stat whore it up here. Theres a 'bet when checked to by PFR' stat, if he's stabby and tends to follow through I'd c/c all 3. If he's not very stabby/persistant I probably fold somewhere.

there is no "bet when checked to by pfr and proceeded to barrel 3 streets with air" stat

if he folds to most cbets then just bet it and take it down like almost every time!
if he calls ur still getting value from flush and str8 draws, and if he plays back at you on this board its a very easy fold

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iopq

there is no "bet when checked to by pfr and proceeded to barrel 3 streets with air" stat

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not enough hands for this to converge it was like 50% 1 out of 2 FWIW i also look at this stat

I wouldn't take non standard lines vs somebody who you don't have reads on and know how they are going to react to non standard lines. I think that's really important and because of that I would bet the flop. 270 hands is plenty to have some reads on somebody other than 20/14/3. In theory I don't mind your line but you have to have reads that support taking this line so you aren't just c/c and guessing if you're good.

It's CO vs BTN, there's too much value to take here, just cbet.

def bet here unless you have READS. and reads that make c/c each street a good idea