200nl JJ river fun 3bet pot

Opp is 27/20 over 100 hands. Just appears to be a reg nothing special.

I was planning to barrel the whole way then he lead half pot on river, what do you put him on given how unlikely an 8 or 5 is in his range.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($213.45)
BTN ($34.15)
SB ($230.75)
Hero (BB) ($206.35)

Pre-flop: ($3, 4 players) Hero is BB :jd: :js:
2 folds, SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $12

Flop: :8h: :5c: :8s: ($36, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $22, SB calls $22

Turn: :5s: ($80, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $38, SB calls $38

River: :6h: ($156, 2 players)
SB bets $72, Hero ????

Kinda gross. I would take his line with a 5 or 8 because your turn bet doesn't look too strong, and check-raising the turn would probably make you fold. If he was going to run a bluff I think he would have popped you on the turn. I could see 77, 99 or TT taking this line as well though.

if you're putting him on hands like 66,77,99, TT that you beat you could use a bet flop check turn bet river (a bit more on flop since those hands never fold, and then half to 2/3 on riv)

i think it's also extremely unlikely for him to ever have an 8 or 5 in his 3bet calling range oop here...

the river line is strange though, i can't see him doing it with 66/77 ever and what's he trying to get value from if he's doing it with 99 or TT ?

I could see QQ doing this but that's about it.
I don't think it's profitable to raise this river and it's probably better to call than to fold.

Do you and villain have some 3bet pots history? Do you know anything about his ranges in 3bet pots?

As villain seems loosish, I can imagine him having an 8 sometimes, besides 99/TT/JJ (as far as those don't get 4bet pre).

Turn bet is a little small?

I generally make it $22 pre because we're OOP
river seems to be a crying call, at least for me even though it sucks for all the reasons kornholio stated (did I just read a kornholio post? what is this, 2007?)

This is sb vs bb...and goat is in position iopq.

Jst call this lead. His bet looks blocky, but without reads i can't shove for value here.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by AnTman_69

This is sb vs bb...and goat is in position iopq.

Jst call this lead. His bet looks blocky, but without reads i can't shove for value here.

---

nm then std

Ok Ive done some stoving but tbh theres some amount of assumptions.

Lets give him 1/6 holding of AA
All JJ,TT,99 holdings seem reasonable with no history.
All 88,77,66,55 hands too

And I am 74% to beat that.

If we add in 98s, 87s, 65s and 54s then

We are 42% to win. Actually better than I thought since we need 33% to call but if he doesnt lead river with JJ,TT,99 then...we are 32% to win. Damn didnt think it was that close.

Wot u make of my workings.

I think he has something absolutely retarded like AQ and thinks he's blocking the chop some of the time

i would expect hero to check this turn near 100% of the time with any Ax hand

bet turn $48, shove river seems best. what was your thinking behind a smaller bet size on the turn?


i would discount 66/77 50%, but river is still an easy call. to me his river bet is a blocking bet with worse pairs most often.

If you are planning on shoving the river, your turn sizing is pretty irrelevant, so if you are betting it you should just bet pretty big. It's not like you're worried about losing him, or him slowplaying.

I mean, that is unless you're betting the turn since you think you're getting more value from hands like 77/99 while losing less to hands w/ an 8 or 5 by checking river.

As played obviously call.