100NL KJ river decision

Villian was unknown but has been tight for 3 orbits

I think his bet sizing somewhat serves as a tell.

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $254.35
CO: $104.90
Hero (BTN): $100.00
SB: $251.50
BB: $59.00
UTG: $100.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with K:spade: J:heart:
2 folds, CO raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 5:spade: K:diamond: T:heart: (2 players)
CO bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($18.50) J:spade: (2 players)
CO bets $15, Hero calls $15

River: ($48.50) 3:club: (2 players)
CO bets $45, Hero ??

If you think he'll play AA/AK/KQ this way, you should call, but I think that is being a bit optimistic. Like you mentioned, I doubt he pots his 1 pair hands on the river, so he's polarized to sets, straights and bluffs. I doubt I could find a fold while playing, but I think it is correct. I fold or 3bet pre-flop as well.

against the most pessimistic range I can think of

Board: Kd Th 5s Js 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.818% 27.27% 04.55% 12 2.00 { KsJh }
Hand 1: 68.182% 63.64% 04.55% 28 2.00 { KK, JJ-TT, 55, AQs, KJs-KTs, Q9s, JTs, AQo, KJo-KTo, JTo }

I'm likely never folding this vs an unknown. As spenda pointed out, it's a pretty close situation. If I think I'm in a close situation, I generally lean towards calling early on to get reads on villain... though I have stationy tendencies.

I'd folded pre flop, I'd raised after the flop, now I call

Clear 3bet preflop.

Clear raise on turn.

Clear call on river.

I hate 3 betting this IP preflop.

i agree with spenda/griff that its really close and probably call.

marshall 3betting KJo here seems really bad. why wouldn't we want to play a pot IP with a mediocre hand like this? 3betting wins us 5bb usually, but we are shutting out the vast majority of his range if we 3bet. i feel like playing a pot in position will have a greater expectation, especially vs an unknown.

am I misunderstanding the definition of 3 bet? I thought 3 bet meant if you reraised the raise to $3.50 being the 3rd person to bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by uscheese

am I misunderstanding the definition of 3 bet? I thought 3 bet meant if you reraised the raise to $3.50 being the 3rd person to bet.

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yes, if hero would have raised pre it would be a 3bet

I'd call the river.

I'm interested that the turn is a clear raise though marshall?

If you raise the turn do you call a river shove on a spade/A/9 river vs. an unknown?